The Texas Senate race has Democrat James Talarico priced as a 66¢ favorite over Republican Ken Paxton on both Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show a dead heat.
- The Polymarket Texas Senate board has Talarico at YES 66¢ and Paxton at YES 36¢, while the Texas Senate Kalshi board has him at YES 66¢ and Paxton at YES 35¢, with Kalshi's margin forecast at Talarico +2.1.
- Talarico vs Paxton polls range from a flat 49-49 tie to a 5-point Talarico lead, and more than 4.5 million Texans have already voted in a record early voting push.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $148.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (36¢) | $265.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $147.98 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (35¢) | $273.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Texas Senate Odds: Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Contracts
The Polymarket Texas Senate contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the November 3 general election and $0 if they lose, and traders can sell a position back before then.
Both sides are quoted on Polymarket's trade tickets, so the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket prices below are live Yes and No figures, not derived estimates.
James Talarico (YES 66¢ / NO 35¢, +1 pt)
Talarico gained a point on the board and now sits at a 66% implied probability, a price that Polymarket's own race page labels Lean Democratic.
The University of Houston's Hobby School poll had him ahead 48-46 among likely voters, with independents breaking 60% to 32% his way, and Emerson's October 17 to 19 survey found the same two-point edge.
Ken Paxton (YES 36¢ / NO 65¢, -1 pt)
Paxton slipped a point to 36¢, though the polling is friendlier to him than that price suggests, with a Fox News survey from October 15 to 19 landing at 49-49.
President Donald Trump is back in Texas on Tuesday for rallies in Lubbock and Waco, his third visit this month, and Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz joined Paxton on the trail over the weekend.
A $100 ticket on Paxton's YES side returns an estimated $265.00.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Contracts
The Texas Senate Kalshi board lists the same race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party on November 3, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate.
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market has traded more than $46.7 million in volume, and the board's margin forecast of Talarico +2.1 is close to the 1.8-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
James Talarico (YES 66¢ / NO 35¢, +1 pt)
Talarico also gained a point on Kalshi, where the same contract had Paxton near 80% in late 2025, a swing of more than 40 points toward the Democrat since then.
Turnout is the main reason traders keep leaning his way: 4,538,667 Texans had voted early as of October 26, up 74% from the same point in 2022, and Dallas County's first four days were up 81%.
Voters with a Democratic primary history outnumbered those with a Republican one by about 75,000 through October 23, according to Republican data consultant Derek Ryan.
Ken Paxton (YES 35¢ / NO 66¢, -1 pt)
Paxton dropped a point to 35¢, a cent cheaper than on Polymarket, which lifts the payout on a $100 YES ticket to an estimated $273.25.
His path runs through Election Day. Ryan counts roughly 318,000 reliable Republican primary voters who had not yet cast a ballot, compared with 147,000 such Democrats, and 40% of Republicans in the Texas Politics Project's polling planned to wait.
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How Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi Prices Compare
The Polymarket Texas Senate board and the Texas Senate Kalshi board agree on the favorite and on his price. Talarico trades at YES 66¢ on both exchanges, and his No side is NO 35¢ on both.
The only gap is on Paxton. On the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket board he is at YES 36¢, and on the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board he is at YES 35¢. The No side runs NO 65¢ on Polymarket and NO 66¢ on Kalshi.
The trade tickets show why a one-cent gap matters: a $100 Paxton YES ticket pays an estimated $273.25 on Kalshi versus $265.00 on Polymarket, while the Talarico YES ticket is effectively even at $147.98 and $148.00.
Polymarket's two Yes sides add up to 102¢ and Kalshi's add up to 101¢, so Kalshi carries a marginally tighter spread, which usually reflects trader mix and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the Talarico vs Paxton polls. Both markets hold Talarico at YES 66¢ or better, even though the Fox News poll was tied and the RealClearPolitics average has him up under two points.
Texas Senate Race Price Analysis: Talarico vs Paxton Polls and Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved a point toward Talarico, even though the Talarico vs Paxton polls from the past week are tighter than the board. Five of six public surveys had him ahead, all inside the margin of error, and the sixth, from Fox News, was tied at 49%.
The range is wide. A Cook Political Report poll from October 9 to 13, run jointly by a Democratic and a Republican firm, had Talarico up 49-44, while a Democratic-run Texas Public Opinion Research survey had him ahead 51-47 and Emerson's result narrowed to 49-48 once undecided voters were pushed to choose, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%.
Emerson noted that Paxton would likely gain if Brown's backers, mostly independents and Republicans, drift back before Election Day.
Money and endorsements have mostly favored Talarico. He raised $64 million in the third quarter to Paxton's $18 million, the Dallas Morning News backed him after years of endorsing Republican John Cornyn, and the two men have not debated.
The risk for a 66¢ price is Republican turnout on November 3. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024, and Decision Desk HQ's model gives Talarico 55%, well below the exchanges.
The next repricing triggers are the final days of early voting through October 30, the Trump rallies in Lubbock and Waco, any late polls, and the Election Day vote share in rural counties.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $148.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (36¢) | $265.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $147.98 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (35¢) | $273.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is a 66¢ favorite in a race the polls call a coin flip, with the Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi boards landing within a cent of each other on every contract. The exchanges are pricing record Democratic early turnout and Paxton's weak favorability, not the narrow survey margins.
Watch the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi boards through the end of early voting on October 30, since a Republican surge on Election Day is the clearest way the current price gets tested.
Texas Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Texas Senate race odds?
James Talarico is trading at 66¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Ken Paxton sits at 36¢ on Polymarket and 35¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Talarico is the favorite on both exchanges at a 66% implied probability, and Kalshi's own margin forecast has him winning by 2.1 points.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
The race is inside the margin of error in every recent survey. Fox News had a 49-49 tie, Emerson and the University of Houston both had Talarico up 48-46, and a Cook Political Report poll had him ahead 49-44.
What is the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket price?
On Polymarket, Talarico is at YES 66¢ and NO 35¢, while Paxton is at YES 36¢ and NO 65¢. A $100 ticket on Talarico returns $148.00 and a $100 ticket on Paxton returns $265.00.
How does Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi pricing compare to Polymarket?
The two exchanges are within a cent of each other. Talarico is YES 66¢ on both, and Paxton is a cent cheaper on Kalshi at YES 35¢, which pays $273.25 on a $100 ticket versus $265.00 on Polymarket.
Why are the Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi markets more bullish on Talarico than the polls?
Traders are weighing record Democratic early voting, a large fundraising edge and Paxton's weak favorability, while the polls show a near tie. The RealClearPolitics average has Talarico up only 1.8 points, which is closer to a coin flip than a 66% price.
When does early voting end in the Texas Senate race?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
How is early voting turnout looking in Texas?
More than 4.5 million Texans had voted early as of October 26, which is up 74% from the same point in 2022, and analysts expect total turnout near 10 million.
How do I trade the Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the candidate you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before Election Day.
