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With eight days until Election Day, the Maine Senate race has turned into one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Maine was supposed to be one of Democrats’ easiest Senate pickups. In September, Polymarket gave Democrats a 70.5% chance of defeating Susan Collins, nearly 18 points higher than their odds of controlling the Senate.
Six weeks later, that relationship has flipped. Democrat Troy Jackson is now trading at 60% to beat Collins, while Democrats have a 64.5% chance of taking the Senate majority.
The PredictionPro model is less pessimistic. It gives Jackson a 67.6% chance of winning, nearly eight points above the market. It also sees a bigger pricing gap in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
How the Maine Senate Race Got Here
Democrats originally nominated Graham Platner, who won the June primary overwhelmingly before withdrawing in July following sexual assault allegations. The party replaced him with Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president who initially appeared well-positioned to defeat Collins.
By September 22, Jackson’s contract had climbed to 73.5%. That optimism faded when a New York Times/Siena poll showed Collins leading 49-46. Several subsequent polls showed a tied race, and Jackson’s odds dropped to 56.5% by October 1.
October initially looked better for Democrats. Marist and The Washington Post both found Jackson leading by four points, and several other surveys showed him ahead by two. Jackson also raised more than $20 million in the third quarter, helping narrow Collins’s fundraising advantage. His Polymarket odds recovered to 66.5% last Thursday.
Then came another reversal. A Fox News poll released Friday showed the race tied at 49%. The White House also announced economic relief measures for Maine’s lobster industry and certain Canadian agricultural imports. Collins had pushed for some of that relief, giving her a timely accomplishment to campaign on.
Jackson’s contract held near 66% Friday evening before falling sharply over the weekend. It touched 59.5% by Sunday night and now sits at 60%. Kalshi is pricing the race almost identically, so the two largest prediction markets agree: Maine leans Democratic, but Collins has a very real chance of surviving.
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Maine Senate Race Polls: What the Latest Surveys Show
The polling picture is considerably closer than the market’s earlier pricing suggested. Fifteen surveys conducted since mid-September have produced eight Jackson leads, five ties and two Collins leads. Neither candidate has led by more than four points in any of them.
The overall average puts Jackson ahead by roughly 1.2 points, and the RealClearPolitics average is D+1.4. The three most recent polls narrow that advantage to just 0.7 points.
Using a 4.5-point polling-error assumption, a 1.4-point lead translates to roughly a 62% chance of winning. At a 0.7-point lead, the probability falls to around 56%. On the polls alone, Jackson’s 60-cent price looks fairly reasonable.
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Why Susan Collins Could Outperform the Polls Again
Relying on polling averages in Maine is risky because of Collins. In 2020, the final polling average had Democrat Sara Gideon leading by 3.8 points. Collins won by 8.6, outperforming expectations by more than 12 points.
She still appears able to outrun her party. A Siena poll found Maine voters preferred Democratic control of the Senate by 12 points while giving Collins a three-point lead. The open question is how much of that personal advantage remains.
The PredictionPro model suggests it is shrinking. Its candidate-effect analysis implies Collins’s historical personal edge has fallen from roughly 18.5 points to 15, a decline of about 19%. That helps explain why the model still favors Jackson at 67.6% after the market’s recent selloff. It is not a guarantee that Collins will underperform, especially given the unusual Democratic nominee change. But it suggests the market may be leaning too heavily on her past elections.
The broader environment also favors Jackson. President Trump’s approval rating in Maine ranges from 32% to 40% across recent surveys, and a majority of voters in the Fox poll expressed concern that Collins supports the president too often.
Maine Senate Race Odds: Other Markets Rate Jackson Higher
Polymarket’s other Maine markets haven’t fully followed the Senate contract lower. The first-round margin market implies about a 65% chance Jackson finishes ahead, and the final ranked-choice margin market implies roughly 64%. The combined Senate and governor market also puts Jackson near 64% after adjusting for the prices of all four outcomes. Those estimates sit much closer to PredictionPro’s 67.6% than to the standalone contract’s 60%.
There is a catch. These secondary markets have substantially less trading volume, and their prices may not have adjusted to the weekend’s selling. Still, the model and several secondary markets point the same way: Jackson may be a little cheaper than he should be.
Maine’s Governor Race Looks Settled, Highlighting Collins’s Strength
While the Senate race has tightened, the governor’s race is moving the other way. Democrat Hannah Pingree trades at about 95.6% against Republican Bobby Charles and independent Rick Bennett. Recent polling gives Pingree an average lead of around 12 points. Suffolk found her ahead 49-38, Marist had her leading 52-40, and an AARP-sponsored survey showed a similar advantage.
The gap between the two markets is striking: Pingree at 95.6% and Jackson at 60%, a nearly 36-point difference in the same state on the same day. PredictionPro’s candidate-effect analysis points to Collins’s personal appeal as the main explanation, rather than Maine being especially competitive for Republicans.
Voters appear comfortable splitting their tickets. Polymarket’s combined market prices a Democratic governor alongside a Collins Senate victory at around 34%.
Maine’s 2nd District: The Bigger Pricing Gap
The more compelling disagreement between model and market is in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Republican Paul LePage is favored at 55.5% against Democrat Matt Dunlap, who trades at 45%. That is surprising given the polling. Since September, four surveys have averaged a three-point Dunlap lead. The University of New Hampshire, the only nonpartisan poll in that group, found Dunlap ahead by six. Every poll since July has shown Dunlap leading or trailing by no more than one point.
PredictionPro gives Dunlap a 57.6% chance of winning, a 12.6-point gap with the market. Unlike the Senate race, where Collins’s personal popularity muddies the polling, ME-02 is a more straightforward disagreement.
LePage’s favored status is largely historical. The 2nd District is considerably more Republican than the state overall, and Trump carried it in 2016, 2020 and 2024 even as Maine voted Democratic statewide. Former Democratic Rep. Jared Golden survived by building a personal brand that appealed to Republican voters. With Golden retiring, traders appear skeptical that Dunlap can replicate that. LePage also has stronger fundraising and name recognition as a former two-term governor.
There is another caution: five of the six polls conducted since July were funded by Democrats, so the available polling may not fully capture the race. But that doesn’t make the Republican the favorite. Dunlap has climbed from 35.5% at the start of October to 45%, and the district’s margin markets imply something close to a 50-50 race. That leaves three assessments of the same election: Polymarket favors LePage, the margin markets suggest a toss-up, and PredictionPro gives Dunlap nearly 58%.
What the Maine Senate Race Means for Democrats
Maine illustrates one of the biggest challenges in forecasting this year’s midterms: a favorable national environment doesn’t translate evenly across individual races. Democrats are well-positioned to win the governor’s mansion and stay competitive in a Republican-leaning House district, and they could still defeat one of the Senate’s most resilient Republican incumbents. But candidates matter. Collins has a history of outperforming her party, and LePage runs in a district that has consistently backed Trump.
The model sees Democrats as undervalued in both races, though the confidence around those estimates matters. The race-level forecasts are not fully calibrated, and ME-02’s historical margin data has a single-source limitation. That makes the model a useful independent check on the market, not a guarantee of the final result.
The Trade: Buying Matt Dunlap at 45¢ Over the Maine Senate Race
This section reflects the author’s opinion, not financial advice.
I’m keeping the Maine Senate race on the watchlist despite the model giving Jackson 67.6% against the market’s 60%. There may be value, but Collins���s history and the uncertainty around her personal vote make it hard to size aggressively. The model’s stricter trade filters don’t currently recommend the Jackson contract.
My favorite position is Matt Dunlap to win Maine’s 2nd Congressional District at 45 cents. PredictionPro puts his chances at 57.6%, a 12.6-point advantage over the market. Recent polling has consistently shown Dunlap competitive or ahead, including a six-point lead in the district’s only recent nonpartisan survey.
The biggest risk is that Democratic-sponsored polling is overstating Dunlap’s support, particularly in a district where Trump remains popular. LePage’s Republican advantage may also simply not have shown up in the surveys yet.
