The Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race both lean Democratic on Polymarket and Kalshi with one week until Election Day, but El-Sayed has slipped to 66¢ on Polymarket while Benson holds 92¢ on both exchanges.
- Benson, James, El-Sayed and Rogers all have live contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Michigan Governor election and the Senate race, and both exchanges also list a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The newest El Sayed vs Rogers polls run from a 1-point race to a 6-point El-Sayed lead, while the latest Benson vs James polls have her ahead by 6 to 7 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms one week before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (8.7¢) | $1,149.43 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket's own board tags the Governor race Safe D and the Senate race Lean D.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Treat them as approximations, since the pairing ignores any third-party candidates on the ballot.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Polymarket has Benson at 92¢, a 92% implied chance, and the newest polling out of Detroit suggests the board has little reason to move.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 92¢ / NO 9¢, -1 pts)
Benson gave back 1 point on the board, even as a Glengariff Group survey for The Detroit News and WDIV showed her lead growing to 7 points, up from 4 in early September. Among voters who say they will definitely vote, she leads 52% to 44.3%.
The same poll found her viewed favorably by 37% of likely voters and unfavorably by 30%, while James sits at 35% favorable and 37% unfavorable.
John James (YES 9¢ / NO 92¢)
James is unchanged at 9¢, and the spread in the Benson vs James polls is the reason traders still pay that price. Marist had him within 6 points at 51-45 in mid-October, and YouGov's larger sample from late September to early October had a 3-point race at 48-45.
Trump has endorsed James in three statewide races over the past eight years and rallied in Port Huron on Sunday, October 25, the first presidential visit to St. Clair County.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is where the movement is, with El-Sayed down 2 points on Polymarket even though the freshest El Sayed vs Rogers polls mostly favor the Democrat.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 66¢ / NO 35¢, -2 pts)
The Glengariff poll put El-Sayed ahead 51.4% to 45.1%, a lead that narrows to 4.2 points among voters who say they definitely plan to vote. He now leads independents 45.5% to 40%, a reversal from the 42% to 28% edge Rogers held in the pollster's survey before Labor Day.
RedBox Research's October 23 survey had him up 49% to 44%, but InsiderAdvantage's October 21 to 22 poll had it at 47% to 46%, and the RealClearPolitics average sits at El-Sayed +1.9.
Mike Rogers (YES 35¢ / NO 66¢, +<1 pts)
Rogers has landed between 44% and 46% in all three of the newest polls, and Glengariff's Richard Czuba says his path runs through winning over voters who disapprove of Trump. The final debate on October 21 gave him a stage to argue that El-Sayed's policies are too extreme for Michigan, while El-Sayed tried to tie him to Trump.
His best hope for a repricing is Democratic defection. Former state party chair Lon Johnson is leading an effort urging Democrats to leave the Senate line blank.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Governor market has traded $638,910 in volume.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket at 92¢ on Benson, and its own margin forecast has the Democrat up 9.1 points.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 92¢ / NO 8.2¢, +0.2 pts)
Benson edged up 0.2 points on Kalshi while Polymarket trimmed a point, leaving the two exchanges level.
The 9.1-point margin forecast is wider than the 6 to 7 point leads in the Marist and Glengariff surveys, a reminder that the market is pricing the probability of a win rather than the size of a poll lead.
John James (YES 8.7¢ / NO 91.4¢, +0.7 pts)
James gained 0.7 points, the biggest move on Kalshi's Governor board, and 8.7¢ keeps him within a third of a cent of Polymarket's 9¢.
Kalshi's chart still shows Duggan at 0.7%, a holdover from a campaign that ended in May, which is why this board isn't a pure head-to-head.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi is 3¢ more confident in the Democrat than Polymarket, with a margin forecast of Democrat +2.3.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, +1 pts)
El-Sayed gained a point on Kalshi while losing 2 on Polymarket, opening the widest gap between the exchanges on any contract. The 2.3-point forecast sits between InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race and Glengariff's 6-point lead.
He has leaned on establishment Democrats down the stretch, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Barack Obama in his corner, and Obama rallied with El-Sayed and Benson in Detroit on October 24.
Mike Rogers (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, -1 pts)
Rogers lost a point on Kalshi and trades 3¢ below his Polymarket price, a sign the newest polling is weighing more on this board.
Glengariff found El-Sayed leading by 77% among voters under 30, so Rogers needs heavy turnout among older voters to offset a youth gap that pollster Richard Czuba called wild.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the favorite at 68¢ on both platforms, a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is next at 27¢, and the two outcomes involving a James win trade at 8¢ or less. Polymarket labels each line by party while Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same.
Kalshi's combo board has traded $86,564 in volume, and its sweep line shows a YES price of 68¢ and a NO price of 35¢, which adds up to more than a dollar and points to a wider spread than the single-race boards.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 68¢ | NO 33¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 27¢ | NO 74¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 7¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 68¢ | NO 35¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 27¢ | NO 74¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 8¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on the Governor race and part ways by 3¢ in the Senate race. Benson sits at YES 92¢ on both exchanges, while El-Sayed is at YES 66¢ on Polymarket and YES 69¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. James trades at YES 9¢ on Polymarket and YES 8.7¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 35¢ and YES 32¢.
Polymarket is the friendlier exchange for Republicans on both races this week, though James's edge is only 0.3¢. Rogers's extra 3¢ is the only gap big enough to be worth noticing, and it likely reflects different trader bases and order-book depth more than a real disagreement.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Benson vs James polls have shown her ahead by 3 to 7 points over the past month, yet neither board has Benson below YES 92¢.
El Sayed vs Rogers polls show a tighter spread, from InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race to Glengariff's 6-point lead, and both markets still price El-Sayed at YES 66¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi's Governor board still carries Duggan on its chart, Polymarket's is a straight two-way market, and Polymarket's combo board uses party labels where Kalshi names the candidates.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Michigan Governor election barely moved this week, with Benson down 1 point on Polymarket and up 0.2 on Kalshi, while the Senate board is where the two exchanges split.
Polymarket cut El-Sayed by 2 points while Kalshi added 1, and Rogers moved in opposite directions as well, up less than a point on Polymarket and down 1 on Kalshi.
The backdrop for the Michigan Governor election favors Benson. The Detroit News tied her widening lead to voter frustration with Trump, and Marist's earlier survey found 61% of likely voters expect her to win.
El-Sayed's case is the Glengariff result, a 6-point lead with independents flipping his way, but the RealClearPolitics average at +1.9 and InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race explain why the Senate price hasn't followed. Obama's Detroit rally on October 24 and Trump's Port Huron rally the next day gave each side a closing push.
The combo boards add one more read. Polymarket's two El-Sayed pairings add up to 70¢, which is 4¢ above his 66¢ Senate price, and the Benson pairings add up to 95¢ on both exchanges, 3¢ above her 92¢ standalone price, gaps worth discounting given how thin the combo markets are.
Turnout is the other variable. As of October 23, 986,189 Michigan voters had cast ballots, or 13.3% of active registered voters, nearly all by absentee ballot, and more than half of the Glengariff poll's probable voters are under 40, so youth turnout could move the Senate result.
With a week left, the final round of El Sayed vs Rogers polls and Benson vs James polls, plus the early voting totals from the weekend, are the likeliest triggers for a repricing. Statewide early voting runs through Sunday, November 1.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (8.7¢) | $1,149.43 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is a Michigan Governor race the market treats as nearly settled, with Benson at 92¢ on both exchanges, and a Michigan Senate race where El-Sayed's price ranges from 66¢ to 69¢ and the polls span 1 to 6 points.
Watch the combo boards and the weekend early voting numbers for the clearest read on the final week. A Democratic sweep at 68¢ is the dominant outcome on both platforms, and the last round of polling is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 92¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while John James sits at 9¢ on Polymarket and 8.7¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the favorite at 66¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi, with Mike Rogers priced at 35¢ and 32¢, respectively.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
A Detroit News and WDIV poll by the Glengariff Group has Benson ahead by 7 points, and by 52% to 44.3% among definite voters. Marist had her up 51-45 and YouGov had her up 48-45.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
Glengariff has El-Sayed ahead 51.4% to 45.1%, RedBox Research had him up 49% to 44%, and InsiderAdvantage had him up 47% to 46%. The RealClearPolitics average puts his lead at 1.9 points.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Benson at 92¢ even though recent surveys have her ahead by anywhere from 3 to 7 points.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls tightening before Election Day?
The picture is mixed. Glengariff shows El-Sayed's lead at about 6 points, while InsiderAdvantage has a 1-point race, and Polymarket cut El-Sayed by 2 points while Kalshi added 1.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan Senate race differently?
The boards are 3¢ apart, with El-Sayed at 66¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi. Gaps that size usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 68¢ on both exchanges, a Benson and Rogers split at 27¢, a James and Rogers sweep at 7¢ on Polymarket and 8¢ on Kalshi, and a James and El-Sayed split at 2¢ on both.
When does early voting end for the Michigan Governor election?
Statewide early voting runs through Sunday, November 1, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. As of October 23, 986,189 Michigan voters had already cast ballots.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
