I have three college basketball games circled today, and I give you college basketball predictions today and NCAAB predictions to trade from each game below. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) now to trade my three games in focus.
- Kalshi's spread lines across the three games range from 15.5 to 40.5 points, so every favorite is carrying a heavy number.
- All six trades are spread or total contracts, and a $100 ticket on each returns between $171.62 and $203.50 if it hits.
Here is every trade from my college basketball predictions today, all priced on one of the best prediction markets.
| 🏀 Game | 🏷️ Pick: Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAG vs CONN | Under 141.5 (Over NO): No | 58¢ | $171.62 | Trade Now! |
| WAG vs CONN | CONN -40.5: Yes | 49¢ | $203.50 | Trade Now! |
| GRAM vs TEX | Over 151.5: Yes | 58¢ | $173.40 | Trade Now! |
| GRAM vs TEX | TEX -35.5: Yes | 56¢ | $177.72 | Trade Now! |
| ILST vs PUR | ILST +15.5 (PUR -15.5 NO): No | 55¢ | $182.66 | Trade Now! |
| ILST vs PUR | Over 142.5: Yes | 55¢ | $183.39 | Trade Now! |
Read our Action Network dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
College Basketball Predictions Today: My Top Kalshi Picks for November 9
These are real trades on Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps for NCAAB trading. My college basketball predictions today follow UConn, Texas and Purdue at home against Wagner, Grambling State and Illinois State, and each trade below is one of the best college basketball picks today from those games.
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Wagner vs. UConn Prediction
No. 4 UConn (2-0) opens the on-campus season at Gampel Pavilion after an 85-77 win over No. 16 Michigan in Boston on Friday, a rematch of last April's national title game. Braylon Mullins scored 23 points and Silas Demary Jr. added 21 in that win.
Wagner (0-2) has lost to Boston College and Miami (Florida), and it was picked seventh of nine in the NEC preseason coaches' poll. The Seahawks rank No. 332 in KenPom, and former UConn center Youssouf Singare is on the roster.
UConn coach Dan Hurley, who coached Wagner from 2010 to 2012, faces his old program for the first time.
Best Total Pick Today: Under 141.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 141.5 (Over NO) | No | 58¢ | $171.62 | Trade Now! |
Wagner's offense has struggled out of the gate. The Seahawks reportedly shot 30.4% at Boston College and 33.3% at Miami, with just 12 assists across the two games.
UConn's opener against Gardner-Webb finished 86-46, a 132-point total, while the Michigan game reached 162, so a UConn offense in rhythm is the risk here. A blowout often means extended minutes for reserves, though, which can hold the combined score down.
Kalshi markets I checked sit at 140.5, so Kalshi's 141.5 line is a full point higher for the Under.
Kalshi's board shows No at 56¢, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 58¢, so that is the price in my table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 171 contracts, each paying $1 if the total lands at 141 or fewer points.
- If it hits: Return of $171.62 if Wagner and UConn combine for 141 or fewer points.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if the teams combine for 142 or more points.
That works out to roughly a 1.72x return on the $100 stake.
Best Spread Pick Today: UConn -40.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN -40.5 | Yes | 49¢ | $203.50 | Trade Now! |
UConn opened the season with an 86-46 win over Gardner-Webb, a 40-point margin that would have come up a half point short of this number. Wagner is a bigger mismatch on paper, ranking No. 332 in KenPom with a roster rebuilt through the transfer portal.
This is the widest line of the six trades, and Kalshi's 40.5 sits two to three points above the 37.5 to 38.5 spreads I saw at competitors. That premium is why it is the lowest-priced ticket in this article.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 47¢, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 49¢, which is the price in my table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 203 contracts, each paying $1 if UConn wins by 41 or more.
- If it hits: Return of $203.50 if UConn wins by 41 or more points.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if UConn wins by 40 or fewer points, or loses.
That works out to roughly a 2.04x return on the $100 stake.
Grambling State vs. Texas Prediction
No. 7 Texas (2-0) hosts Grambling State (1-0) at Moody Center after beating Chicago State 109-59 and Gardner-Webb 98-50. It is the first time since 1989-90 that the Longhorns opened a season with back-to-back wins of 45 or more points.
Texas has limited its first two opponents to 36.8% shooting, and seven different Longhorns scored in double figures against Gardner-Webb. Grambling State averaged 70.3 points per game last season, which ranked 301st nationally.
Best Total Pick Today: Over 151.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 151.5 | Yes | 58¢ | $173.40 | Trade Now! |
Texas has scored 109 and 98 points in its first two games, an average of 103.5. Its opponents have averaged 54.5, so those two numbers add up to 158, well clear of 151.5.
The risk is a Texas team that cruises. One of its first two games totaled 168 points and the other 148, so only one has cleared this number. Kalshi's 151.5 is also a point lower than the 152.5 total I found elsewhere, which gives the Over a small edge.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 55¢, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 58¢, so I use 58¢ in the table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 173 contracts, each paying $1 if the game reaches 152 or more points.
- If it hits: Return of $173.40 if Grambling State and Texas combine for 152 or more points.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if the teams combine for 151 or fewer points.
That works out to roughly a 1.73x return on the $100 stake.
Best Spread Pick Today: Texas -35.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX -35.5 | Yes | 56¢ | $177.72 | Trade Now! |
Texas has won its first two games by 50 and 48 points, and both margins would have cleared 35.5 comfortably. The Longhorns have also held opponents to 54.5 points per game while forcing 38 turnovers in total.
No. 7 Texas has eight players averaging at least 7.5 points, so the margin does not rely on a single scorer. Grambling State ranked 301st nationally in scoring last season, which makes a big Texas run easy to picture, and Kalshi's 35.5 matches other spreads I found.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 54¢, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 56¢, so that is the price in my table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 177 contracts, each paying $1 if Texas wins by 36 or more.
- If it hits: Return of $177.72 if Texas wins by 36 or more points.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if Texas wins by 35 or fewer points, or loses.
That works out to roughly a 1.78x return on the $100 stake.
Illinois State vs. Purdue Prediction
Purdue (0-2) is in an unfamiliar spot at Mackey Arena after a 78-72 loss to Gonzaga and an 83-80 double-overtime loss to Valparaiso. Daniel Jacobsen is averaging 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds, and C.J. Cox adds 12.0 points and 7.5 rebounds.
Illinois State (1-1) is 0-1 against Division I opponents after an overtime loss to Saint Mary's. Ryan Pedon's Redbirds went 23-13 last season, and Torvik ranks them 106th to Purdue's 42nd.
Best Spread Pick Today: Illinois State +15.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST +15.5 (PUR -15.5 NO) | No | 55¢ | $182.66 | Trade Now! |
Purdue has yet to win this season, falling 78-72 to Gonzaga and 83-80 in double overtime to Valparaiso, so a 16-point win would be a statement.
Computer models also sit inside this number: KenPom projects Purdue 79-68, Torvik 76-66 and EvanMiya roughly 80-66, margins of about 10 to 14 points.
Illinois State is 1-1 and was picked second in the Missouri Valley preseason poll. Johnny Kinzinger is averaging 23.0 points on 68% three-point shooting and Malik Messina-Moore adds 17.0, though those hot-shooting numbers come from a tiny sample.
Kalshi's board shows No at 53¢ on the Purdue contract, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 55¢, so I use 55¢ in the table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 182 contracts, each paying $1 if Purdue fails to win by 16 or more.
- If it hits: Return of $182.66 if Purdue wins by 15 or fewer points, or Illinois State wins outright.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if Purdue wins by 16 or more points.
That works out to roughly a 1.83x return on the $100 stake.
Best Total Pick Today: Over 142.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 142.5 | Yes | 55¢ | $183.39 | Trade Now! |
Purdue's two games have gone for 150 and 163 points, and both clear 142.5, though the second needed two overtimes. KenPom's projected score of 79-68 adds up to 147, and Purdue games averaged 152.2 points last season.
Other prediction markets have a totals market of 144.5, so Kalshi's 142.5 is two points lower. Pace ratings put Purdue at 68.1 possessions and Illinois State at 69.3, which supports a game with enough trips to get there.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 52¢, but a $100 ticket fills at an average of about 55¢, so that is the price in my table. At that price, $100 buys roughly 183 contracts, each paying $1 if the game reaches 143 or more points.
- If it hits: Return of $183.39 if Illinois State and Purdue combine for 143 or more points.
- If it misses: Full $100 loss if the teams combine for 142 or fewer points.
That works out to roughly a 1.83x return on the $100 stake.
What's Moving the Market for NCAAB Predictions
Kalshi's lines for the best college basketball picks today run a little different from the sportsbook numbers I checked. On Wagner vs. UConn, sportsbook spreads sat around 37.5 to 38.5 with a total of 140.5, while Kalshi's contracts are at 40.5 and 141.5. I
In Illinois State vs Purdue, some prediction markets shows Purdue -15.5 with a 144.5 total, so the spread matches but Kalshi's 142.5 total is two points lower.
Texas -35.5 matches the spread I found elsewhere, while Kalshi's 151.5 total is a point under the 152.5 I saw. Compare these NCAAB predictions with the latest NCAAB odds before you trade, since lines can change before tipoff.
The posted price also differs from the ticket price. All six $100 tickets filled two to three cents above the Yes or No price on the board, which is why my tables use the ticket's average price. For more on how these contracts are priced, visit the prediction markets hub.
How to Trade the Best College Basketball Picks Today on Kalshi
Ready to get in on these NCAAB predictions? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading college basketball predictions today:
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to get started!
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts on the Best College Basketball Picks Today
The three games I'm covering all feature heavy favorites, so my NCAAB predictions lean on spreads and tempo rather than picking winners. That means Under 141.5 in Storrs, Over 151.5 in Austin, Over 142.5 in West Lafayette, plus the UConn, Texas and Illinois State spreads.
Among the best college basketball picks today, the most demanding ticket is UConn -40.5, since it is the widest line and the lowest-priced pick. The most supported spread may be Illinois State +15.5, because KenPom, Torvik and EvanMiya all project Purdue to win by fewer than 15.5 points.
Looking further ahead, check the latest NCAAB futures as the season rolls on, and come back for more college basketball predictions today on Kalshi.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What Are the Best College Basketball Picks Today?
The best college basketball picks today in this article are Under 141.5 in Wagner vs. UConn, Over 151.5 in Grambling State vs. Texas and Illinois State +15.5 in Illinois State vs. Purdue. UConn -40.5, Texas -35.5 and Over 142.5 round out the six Kalshi trades.
Where Can I Find College Basketball Predictions Today?
You can find college basketball predictions today right here, with six Kalshi trades across three games. Each price reflects what a 100-dollar ticket cost when I checked, not just the number posted on the board.
How Often Do College Basketball Predictions Today Change on Kalshi?
Prices on college basketball predictions today move as traders buy and sell, and they can shift quickly as a game gets closer. Confirm the current price on Kalshi before you trade.
How Do NCAAB Predictions Work on Kalshi?
Each NCAAB prediction is a Yes or No contract that pays 1 dollar if it settles your way and nothing if it does not. The price reflects the market's implied chance, so a 55 cent contract implies roughly a 55% chance.
How Do I Use the Kalshi Promo Code?
Create a Kalshi account through the promo code link in this article, complete any required verification and make a qualifying deposit when prompted. The code is applied during sign-up, and the full terms are listed in the Kalshi terms section above.
How Do Kalshi Spread and Total Contracts Settle?
A spread contract such as UConn wins by over 40.5 points settles Yes if UConn wins by 41 or more and No otherwise. A total contract such as Over 141.5 settles Yes if the teams combine for 142 or more points, and buying No on it is the same as taking the Under.
Why Do NCAAB Predictions on Kalshi Differ From Sportsbook Lines?
Kalshi lists its own contracts and prices, so NCAAB predictions on Kalshi can sit a point or two away from sportsbook spreads and totals. In this article, Wagner vs. UConn is the widest gap, with Kalshi's 40.5-point spread above the 37.5 to 38.5 range I saw elsewhere.
What Does the Return Column Mean in These Tables?
The Return column shows the maximum payout on a 100-dollar ticket if the pick hits, taken from Kalshi's own ticket. It includes your original stake, so it is not pure profit.
