Thursday's slate at the US Open delivers two of the tournament's most anticipated second-round matchups.
Taylor Fritz opens the day session against Mattia Bellucci on Arthur Ashe Stadium, looking to build on a dominant first-round win.
Later on, top seed Alexander Zverev returns to Ashe to face Quentin Halys after surviving a marathon five-set opener.
Polymarket has both matches priced heavily in favor of the higher seed, and we're breaking down the full board for these US Open predictions today, with an Editor's Pick attached to each match.
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Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci
Fritz enters as the No. 9 seed after a straight-sets win over countryman Darwin Blanch, while Bellucci needed three sets to get past Zsombor Piros.
The two have met once before in 2026, with Fritz coming through in three sets before falling to Ben Shelton in that event's final, and this is their first meeting on hard courts at a major.
Best Spread Pick Today – Taylor Fritz (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Fritz to win by over 2.5 sets, meaning a straight-sets result, currently priced at 52¢ on Polymarket.
Fritz enters as a massive moneyline favorite here, with outside books listing him near -900, and that gap between the moneyline and the sets-spread price is where we see value.
In their lone prior meeting this year, Fritz created nine break-point chances to Bellucci's three, a conversion gap that should show up again if Fritz plays anything close to his round-one level.
Bellucci is a strong baseliner on slower surfaces, but Arthur Ashe's hard court favors Fritz's serve-forward game, and Bellucci is still working back from a knee injury that cost him Wimbledon.
On the ticket, we bought Yes at an average price of 52¢ with a $100 stake, matching the board price with no real slippage.
That works out to roughly 192 shares ($100 divided by $0.52), with the position projected to pay $186.92 if it hits.
- If Fritz wins in straight sets: the shares pay out $1 each, for a profit of $86.92 on the $100 stake.
- If Bellucci takes a set: the position settles No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's not a coin-flip trade by any means, but a nearly 87% return on a heavy favorite is the kind of risk/reward we like leading off a slate like this.
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Taylor Fritz Odds: Moneyline
Fritz is priced at 88¢ (88%, 1.13x) to win the match outright, with Bellucci at 12¢ (12%, 8.33x).
That lines up with outside sportsbooks, several of which have Fritz near -900, and reflects both the seeding gap and Fritz's clean first-round showing.
Spread
Fritz to win by over 7.5 games sits at 43¢ Yes (43%, down 5%) against 59¢ No, a tighter number than the moneyline suggests since it demands a wide margin across the whole match.
The 2.5-sets spread from our Editor's Pick above is priced at 52¢ Yes (52%, down 10%) against 97¢ No, meaning the market is pricing straight sets as roughly a coin flip even with Fritz this heavily favored to win.
Total (Games)
Over 32.5 games is priced at 54¢ Yes (54%, down 1%) against 47¢ No, suggesting the market expects at least one competitive set even in a Fritz win.
Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys
Zverev, the top seed and reigning French Open champion, needed four hours and 53 minutes to escape a five-set scare against Lorenzo Sonego in the first round.
Halys advanced in four sets over Facundo Diaz Acosta, and Zverev already leads their 2026 head-to-head 2-0, with wins in Miami and at Roland Garros.
Best Exact Match Score Pick Today – Zverev Wins 3-0 (Editor's Pick)
We're taking Zverev to win this one 3-0, currently priced at 44¢ on the exact match score board.
Predictive models are lining up with the Polymarket price here, with Tennis.com projecting an 82% Zverev win probability and Dimers' simulation model landing at 83.3%.
Zverev's 2-0 head-to-head edge this year includes two tiebreak sets in Miami, showing he can close out close moments against Halys specifically.
The risk in a straight-sets pick is Zverev's five-hour opener, which finished around 1:55 a.m. and could leave him without his best legs early in this one.
Halys is also a dangerous server, having held 19 of 21 service games against Diaz Acosta, so a clean sweep isn't a given even with Zverev this heavily favored.
On the ticket, we bought Yes at an average price of 44¢ with a $100 stake, matching the board price shown.
That's roughly 227 shares ($100 divided by $0.44), with the position projected to pay $219.88 if it hits.
- If Zverev wins 3-0: the shares pay out $1 each, for a profit of $119.88 on the $100 stake.
- If Zverev drops even one set: the position settles No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is the riskiest pick of the two, roughly a 2.2x return, since it requires Zverev to play a mistake-free match on tired legs.
Zverev vs Halys Prediction: Moneyline
Zverev is priced at 84¢ (84%, 1.18x, up 1%) to win outright, with Halys at 16¢ (16%, 6.25x, down 1%).
That's close to what independent models project, and it holds up even accounting for the marathon opener, since Zverev's power baseline game travels well against Halys's flatter groundstrokes.
Spread
Zverev to win by over 5.5 games sits right at a coin flip, 50¢ Yes against 52¢ No, a far tighter number than the 84% moneyline implies.
Halys's serving numbers explain the gap: he won 82% of his first-serve points and held 19 of 21 service games against Diaz Acosta, which is enough production to keep individual sets, and the overall game total, close.
Total (Games)
Over 35.5 games is priced at 66¢ Yes (66%, up 15%) against 54¢ No, a notable jump that reflects both players carrying fatigue from lengthy openers into a match that could run long.
Set Winner: Set 1
Zverev is priced at 73¢ (73%, 1.37x, down 2%) to win the first set, with Halys at 29¢ (29%, 3.45x, down 2%).
Halys's tiebreak comfort makes the first set the most likely spot for an upset scare, even in a match Zverev is heavily favored to win overall.
Exact Match Score
- Zverev wins 3-0 (Yes 44%, No 60%): Our Editor's Pick above, priced as roughly a coin flip against the field of alternate scorelines despite Zverev's overall favoritism.
- Zverev wins 3-1 (Yes 29%, No 76%, up 2%): The market's next-most-likely outcome, consistent with Zverev dropping one set to Halys's tiebreak game before closing it out.
- Zverev wins 3-2 (Yes 15%, No 89%, down 3%): Priced as the scenario where Halys's serve keeps this competitive deep into a fourth or fifth set.
- Halys wins 3-2 (Yes 8%, No 96%, down 2%): The market's live longshot for a Halys upset, requiring him to win a decision set after trading blows.
- Halys wins 3-1 (Yes 7%, No 97%): Priced even lower than the 3-2 upset, since it would require Halys to win at a higher rate across sets than his recent form suggests.
Beyond these two matchups, Polymarket has a full board of second-round US Open matches live on its site, including several other seeded players in action Thursday.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
US Open Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Both matches on today's board share a similar shape: a heavy moneyline favorite whose spread and total numbers are far tighter than the headline percentage suggests.
For Fritz vs Bellucci, that gap shows up in the sets spread; for Zverev vs Halys, it shows up in the games spread and the climbing total, both tied to fatigue from long first-round matches.
If you want to browse the rest of today's board, Action Network's full prediction markets hub covers every live contract, and the prediction market apps guide is a good next stop if you're trading from your phone.
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Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users after a qualifying $10 deposit.
What are the current Taylor Fritz odds against Bellucci?
Polymarket has Fritz priced at 88¢ (88%) to win the match outright, with Bellucci at 12¢ (12%).
Who is favored in the Zverev vs Halys prediction market?
Zverev is the heavy favorite at 84¢ (84%) on the moneyline, though his games spread against Halys is priced much closer to even.
How do Polymarket's exact match score contracts work?
Each exact match score contract resolves Yes only if the match finishes with that specific set score, so a Zverev 3-0 contract pays out only if he wins in straight sets, not simply if he wins the match.
What is the Editor's Pick for Fritz vs Bellucci?
Our Editor's Pick is Fritz to win by over 2.5 sets (a straight-sets result), priced at 52¢ on Polymarket.
What is the Editor's Pick for Zverev vs Halys?
Our Editor's Pick is Zverev to win 3-0, priced at 44¢ on the exact match score board.
When do these US Open matches take place?
Both matches are part of Thursday's schedule at the US Open, with Fritz vs Bellucci in the earlier session and Zverev vs Halys later in the day.
Are there more US Open matches available on Polymarket today?
Yes, Polymarket has a full slate of second-round US Open matches live beyond these two, including several other seeded men's and women's matchups.
