Ravens vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2023

@GDAWG5000

@ChrisRaybon

Wanted to wait to see how Jackson would be utilized in the run game under Monken - and after three games, we’re seeing very similar splits to last season. Jackson has 16 designed rush plays (5.3 per game) so far, compared to 5.6 per game last season. And predictably, we’ve seen an uptick in overall attempts in the close games the last two weeks (12, 14). I see this game being close, and facing a really, really tough defense that excels both in coverage and with their pass rush, I anticipate Lamar being on the move a bunch. Dating back to last season, Lamar is 11/12 on this line in games decided by 14 points or less, which is where I see this game heading. ^^ Wrote the above before Watson was deemed questionable. Now seeing that he’s “likely” to go, I’m comfortable playing this under the “close game assumption”. Was initially going to be a 1.3u play for me, but will keep it at 1u to reflect the injury risk. Even if Watson doesn’t play, the Browns defense is good enough to give Jackson fits in the pass game - I see him running in any scenario.

Bet at Draftkings. Playing 0.5U on Browns defense and 0.5U on Ravens defense. Make sure if you tailing that your sportsbook includes Special Teams as part of the pick. Watch The TD Show at 11:30am ET on Sunday for full analysis.

Watson is likely playing. A good chance to buy back in at a better number.

TAN pod best bets https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-4-preview-odds-picks-every-game-every-team

Stuckey 1, playing as ML parlay w SF

FanDuel - I like the Browns at anything less than -3. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

Watson hurt

Bet at Bet365. Don’t let Watson fool you with a clean game vs Titans. Everyone looks like Peyton Manning playing that defense. Ravens will force an INT in a low-scoring game.

We said on the @TheFavoritesPodcast we were waiting until this got to 3. It’s at 3!

Lamar Jackson for president good sir thank you

Available at FanDuel. Cleveland's defense has been insane so far, and Baltimore enters this game banged up. Even accounting for those things, though, my model makes this effectively a toss-up with the Browns favored by 0.38. Even without Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley the past two weeks, Lamar Jackson has still kept the offense chugging at a decent enough clip. They just need to cut out some crucial mistakes that cost them against the Colts. On the other side, the Browns' offense was solid in its first game without Nick Chubb, but that was against a Titans defense that has bled production to passing games. Baltimore has excelled there even with the injuries. If every Ravens player who sat last week is out again, this could age poorly, but I think +118 is pretty generous.