NFL Week 4: Odds, Picks, Bets for Every Game and Every Team

Today is Sunday, October 1, and that means we're getting into the meat of the season as we break down our NFL preview for Week 4 — the odds, picks and bets for every game and every team. Yes, all of them.

Perhaps you're a fan of a particular team looking to put $10 down and have some fun, or maybe you just want to get a little action on a game you don't have a good feel for but know you'll be watching. Perhaps you know exactly who you like in a game, just not necessarily the smart way to bet it.

Regardless of your level of betting experience and comfort, I'm here for you. The goal of this NFL Week 4 preview is to share the odds for every game, plus my best way to bet on every team. Now, these are not all my best bets. For those, I've made a few picks at the bottom of each game betting preview, and you can find my full betting card at the bottom of this story.

But for those looking to place a few bets for fun, either on your favorite team, against your most hated rival or on a primetime game you'll be watching and need a rooting interest, this NFL Week 4 preview is for you.

Let's get to NFL Week 4: the odds, picks and how to bet every game and every team. Note that on some of these games, the lines have moved due to injury or bets coming in. We'll note those throughout, and you'll have to decide if you still want to be on that side at a worse number unless we can find an alternate bet.

Looking to place your NFL Week 4 bets? Get the latest updated NFL odds across sportsbooks here, as shopping around to find the best line is essential for every NFL bettor, beginner or expert!

NFL Week 4: Odds, Picks, Bets for Every Game and Every Team

Sunday Late Afternoon Betting Preview

Patriots vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• America's Sunday Game of the Week, featuring America's Team against America's Team of the last 20 years? Say no more, I'm in.
• Both offensive lines are majorly in flux with injuries and unknowns. Stud Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is out. G Zack Martin and C Tyler Biadasz got some practice in but remain question marks. Both Patriots guards are hurt, and that line has been a mess with names in and out.

The metrics say these teams are pretty close right now. Both offenses sit just outside the top 10, and both defenses are near the top of the league. Dallas has the better metrics overall but against a softer schedule. It's honestly hard to say how much we know about the Cowboys at this point after two blowout wins that were over early and one no-show in the desert.

Besides, this is Bill Belichick against Mike McCarthy — do you really need any more convincing? There's been talk this week about the Patriots knowing some of the Cowboys signals, courtesy of Ezekiel Elliott and Will Grier, so that's a fun wrinkle. Trust the massive coaching example and play the key number, if you can still find it on Sunday morning. (But you probably can't, as it's now all the way to Patriots +5.5 at some books.)

These were my top two defenses entering the season and both have looked pretty good so far, outside of Dallas getting gashed in the run game by Arizona last week. I like both defenses to have good games in winnable matchups each way, especially with the offensive lines looking so messy for both sides.

Dallas has allowed 12.7 PPG on the season, and the Patriots have yet to score 20. New England's defense is allowing just 19.7 PPG itself despite a difficult schedule. New England games were at 42 or below in nine of 17 games last season, and both teams have gone under this in two of their three games. Mac Jones road unders are 10-6 for his career (63%).

This was a Hot Read pick for me and the line dropped at first, then rose, and now has settled back around where it started. The injury report for the offensive lines is slightly more optimistic now, but I still like the under, especially right above a couple key numbers. I'm expecting a stodgy, defensive game — and Patriots fans, if the New England +7 isn't available, this bet makes sense for you, too.

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Raiders vs Chargers Odds, Picks

• Pay attention to the injury report before betting. Jimmy Garoppolo was the big Raiders decision, and as he's unavailable, Vegas will turn to either veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell, with that decision not yet announced as of late Saturday night. For the Chargers, Austin Ekeler is doubtful, and Mike Williams is out for the year.
• This rivalry has been very close in recent years. The teams split each of the past three years, and seven of the last eight meetings have been one-score affairs, with two of them going into overtime.

We hit this one with the Chargers last week, so let's run it back. Since the start of last season, 17 of 21 Chargers games (81%) have finished within a seven-point margin. That includes all three this year, and remember, seven of the last eight in this rivalry have finished inside this margin too.

This is just a bet on Chargers goofiness, and on the Raiders keeping it close like they usually do in this rivalry. Play as a Same Game Parlay betting Chargers +7.5 and Raiders +7.5 together at DraftKings.

The Chargers offense is the one standout unit on the field, top quarter of the league in both Rushing and Passing DVOA. It sure would be nice if we could ever keep all these weapons healthy, though.

Allen is coming off his career-best game, a monster 18-catch, 215-yard effort that included a 49-yard TD pass. He leads the league in receptions with 32, a 181-catch pace, and I put in a bet on him at +12500 to win OPOY. The Chargers have little choice but to feed Allen at this point with the injuries, and there's no reason to believe the Raiders will be the team to stop him.

I might run back the one-score bet but can't invest anything on this game until we get some answers on the big injury concerns. There's a real chance Aidan McConnell sees significant time as an NFL debut, and that sort of throws the script out the window.

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Cardinals vs 49ers Odds, Picks

• The Cardinals won a game! So much for going 0-17. And heck, Arizona looks like a pretty good team through three weeks! The Cards rank 10th in DVOA and are top half of the league in all three phases.
• The 49ers are coming off extra rest after a Thursday night game, which should be enough to get banged-up WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel back onto the field.

What's there to talk about? The Niners have won 13 straight regular season games, with nine of them by at least 13 points (69%). Brock Purdy is 8-2 ATS as a favorite. San Francisco demolished Arizona 38-10 and 38-13 last year. They can't set this line high enough. Set it and forget it.

I won't need to invest much in this game, but every piece of data we have says this line is ridiculously long. The numbers say the Cardinals are playing like a playoff team, and there are all sorts of trends backing long division underdogs and double-digit division dogs, especially on the road and early in the season.

My brain says the Niners roll and end this cute little Cinderella run with a 30-point blowout. But the numbers say +650 is way too long and worth a little nibble. My gut said the Cards were live against the Cowboys last week too and I sat that one out, so I have to get a taste this time.

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Chiefs vs Jets Odds, Picks

• The Jets offense has been absolutely miserable, and it's not just the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Zach Wilson has been terrible, but so has everything else. The Jets rank bottom three in both Rushing and Passing DVOA and last overall on offense. The line is a mess. They can't run the ball. It's miserable.
• The Chiefs do not rank last on offense. They have Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs continue to play great defense, and let's be honest, you and I could probably defend well enough the way the Jets offense looks. Kansas City's offense broke out against Chicago, but the Jets have an actual defense, so things probably won't be so easy. This feels like a snoozer Sunday night 23-6 game.

Primetime unders the last four years hit at 61% and are 9-2 so far this season. Wilson games with a total below 44 have gone under 64% of the time, and Jets games have finished at 41 or below in 16 of 20 games since the start of last season, including 14 of the last 15 (93%).

I mean, just put us out of our misery at this point, right? This dude simply is not the answer, and it's getting real old waiting around for the team to admit what everyone else has known for a long time.

All Jets fans can do this point is hope Wilson walks himself off the cliff with another disastrous game too hard to ignore. He just threw three picks against Dallas and has two other such games in 24 starts, so that's a 12.5% chance vs. these 7.5% implied odds. Insert Mortal Kombat gif: FINISH HIM[[

This SNF under was my favorite play of the week at 45 on the Lookahead. You're not getting the best of the number anymore, but I still like the under. The Jets great pass defense should slow things down, and the Chiefs have gotten annoyingly good at grinding out boring wins. I'll play to 41, and I don't mean Taylor Swift appearances on camera.

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Seahawks vs Giants Odds, Picks

• You'll need to pay attention to the injury report here, since the Monday game means late news and there are lots of key names. Giants LT Andrew Thomas is out as the line remains a mess, and Saquon Barkley is doubtful. Seattle's line is in bad shape too with both tackles out, and the secondary is still decimated by injury as well.
• There are good trends on both sides. Brian Daboll is 6-1 ATS after a loss, and Daniel Jones is 20-11 ATS himself in that spot. But Jones is 5-8 ATS as a favorite while Geno Smith (61% ATS) and Pete Carroll (61%) have been profitable as underdogs.

There's a lot of bad in this game, but Seattle's offense is the one definite good. The Seahawks have been one of the most effective rushing teams in the league, and Geno Smith has picked up where he left off after winning Comeback Player of the Year. Seattle ranks in the top quarter of the league both running and passing by DVOA, and this Giants defense has been miserable.

Wink Martindale loves to blitz all night and will bring the heat, and Smith struggles against pressure and is missing his tackles. But if he can get the ball out quickly, he and that WR trio can carve this secondary up. It might be time to trust this Seattle offense.

This total has risen all week, and with these defenses, it's easy to see why. But we're passing key numbers now, so I'm ready to fade the steam and go under. Primetime unders continue to hit, now 9-2 this season after 61% the last four years, and Daniel Jones home unders have been profitable at 19-9-1 (68%). It probably won't be a fun ride, but this number has gotten too high.

I like Seattle here. They're just the better team, and this offense looks worth believing in — but it's just a lean for now for two reasons.

First, I need to wait to see more injury news. I might also like to wait and play Seattle live. New York is at home on Monday night effectively playing for its season after this brutal start, one miracle second half comeback over Arizona away from an 0-3 start. I have to believe the Giants at least come out and make a push, so I may wait to play live and hope for a better number or sit out Monday night on the road.

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Brandon Anderson's Week 4 NFL Picks

• Bucs +3.5 and +160 ML
• Ravens +3
• Chiefs/Jets under 41.5
• Josh Allen over 34.5 rushing yards, 50+ yards at +220
• Patriots/Cowboys under 43
• Kirk Cousins 300 passing yards +180, 325 for +305, 350 for +575 esclator
• Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions +104, 7+ rec for +450
• Calvin Ridley over 64.5 receiving yards, 100+ yards at +400
• Bengals -2
• Steelers/Texans under 42.5
• Seahawks ML -115
• Sprinkle Cardinals ML +650

Bets as of Saturday at 9 a.m. ET. Lines have since moved. Shop around!

Sunday Morning Betting Preview

Falcons vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

• It's our first Sunday morning game of the year! Make sure you get your bets in early, set your fantasy lineup, and check on your nephew's ESPN+ account.
• Favorites in Jaguars international games are 4-5 ATS, as opposed to 20-10 ATS for all non-Jaguars games. Jacksonville is 1-2 SU as an international favorite.

Both of these teams are underperforming, particularly on offense, where each unit is bottom 10 in DVOA so far. The matchup leans Jacksonville's way since the Jags are terrific against the run defensively but vulnerable to the pass, and that could put a ton of pressure on Desmond Ridder – which, yikes

Still, Trevor Lawrence is 2-7 ATS as a favorite (22%). The Jaguars don't actually have "home field" advantage here, and simply haven't earned a reason to be a field goal favorite against a Falcons team that has proven itself with a couple early wins. Atlanta will shake off last week's disappointment and cover the key number.

Ridley isn't fully healthy, but you know he's going to get up for this matchup against his old team. Ridley only has five catches for 72 yards over the last two weeks, but got 15 targets anyway, so the looks will be there.

The Falcons pass defense has been beatable, and Ridley has tallied at least 60 yards in 19 of his last 27 games (70%). He also hit 100 yards in 10 of those games (37%). So if you like the revenge angle, lean in and sprinkle 100+ yards at +400 (PointsBet), with that implied 20% chance giving us significant value.

I do lean Falcons here but last week was rough and I'm heavy on Falcons futures and fading Jacksonville, so I'm plenty invested already. I'll lean into the Ridley revenge angle, though, and play the receiving yards over and 100+ escalator. He's one of the receivers I was highest on coming into the season.

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Sunday Early Afternoon Betting Preview

Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Picks

• This is a monster game. The Bills and Dolphins don't meet again until Week 18, when one or both could be resting. So this sets the tone for the division, and maybe the race for the one-seed in the AFC. These are the top two teams in DVOA, and they played three one-score games last season. Buckle up.
• Both squads look healthy. LT Terron Armstead returned for Miami last week, and Jaylen Waddle cleared concussion protocol. That would make this the first game of the season where Miami's quartet of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Waddle, and Armstead are all on the field.
• The Bills have had Miami's number, winning nine of the last 10 meetings with a narrow two-point loss last September.
• Keep an eye on the special teams. Miami's unit consistently ranks near the bottom of the league while the Bills make ST a priority. In such a tight game, that could be the difference.

Come on, now. Miami nearly went over this number in two different quarters against the Broncos. This is a team that just hung 70 on an actual NFL opponent.

Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa are breaking modern football and very well might be the Warriors of the NFL. With the Dolphins defense still finding its footing, a bet on Miami is certainly a bet on them winning on offense. This way, we cash even if the Fins defense doesn't show up in a shootout.

This is one of my favorite go-to prop bets. Over the past couple years, the Bills consistently save Allen's legs and run him more in big spots against top teams, unleashing him for designed runs and scrambles. Look at the numbers over the last two seasons:

• 22 games vs non-playoff teams: 6.4 carries a game for 39.5 yards
• 16 games vs playoff teams: 8.7 carries for 53.0 yards, with 44+ in 10/16

The pattern is consistent: Allen is up at least 34% in both rushing attempts and yards against better opponents. So far this year Allen hasn't run much, just 4.0 times a game for an average of 29.7 yards. Why? Because the Bills have played Washington, Vegas, and Zach Wilson's Jets! Even so, he still went over this line twice.

Last year against Miami, Allen rushed eight times for 47 yards and 10 times for 47 yards. He went under at four carries for 20 yards in the playoff matchup — but that was only because Buffalo was facing third-string QB Skylar Thompson! The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments. This is one of them. Give me the over, and I'll play 50+ at +220 too (bet365).

This is one of my favorite go-to props in big games, and this line is about 10 yards too low. I'll play 50+ at +220 too, and look for Allen to run early and often.

I'm staying away from a side in such a big game, but this is a great buy-low spot if you like Buffalo. I think the Bills are the best team in the league, and they enter a soft two-month stretch after this game. I like over 10.5 wins, and I'm grabbing AFC (+550) and Super Bowl (+1000) tickets at bargain prices as well. If the Bills win this game, we may not get those prices again this season.

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Ravens vs Browns Odds, Picks

• It's a Ravens game, so that means major injury watch for both teams. Deshaun Watson is questionable, although reports are that he'll play. Baltimore's top two offensive linemen are finally practicing and may play, but the secondary may still be missing two or three starters. Cleveland is missing its right tackle and Nick Chubb, compromising the run game.
• The Browns defense has been historically great, leading the league in Success Rate in each of the first three weeks. But the Ravens defense ranks top five in DVOA so far too. Defense abounds.
• The home team has won five of the last six meetings, and eight of the last 10 in this longtime rivalry. It's a key early spot with the winner taking the division lead at 3-1 and staying ahead of the struggling Bengals.

Both defenses are great and have the advantage. But while the Browns offense ranks bottom 10 in DVOA, and isn't built to take advantage of the Ravens secondary issues, Baltimore's offense actually ranks top 10 in both rushing and passing and should give Cleveland a real challenge.

The line issues are a concern, but Todd Monken's offense is getting the ball out quickly so that should help protect Lamar Jackson and could be a great antidote for an aggressive Browns front seven.

The trends line up in Baltimore's favor. Deshaun Watson (41% ATS) and Kevin Stefanski (37%) are bad as favorites, with Stefanski just 2-8 ATS as a division favorite. John Harbaugh is 70% ATS as a division underdog, and Lamar Jackson is a sparkling 11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 8-4 straight up.

The Browns offense has allowed more touchdowns (2) than their defense (1). Take away those two Pittsburgh defensive scores and the Browns have allowed 18 points in three games.

Points will be at a premium, and the Browns offense needs to prove they can score on a top defense. With a total below 44, Stefanski unders are 11-6 (65%). Just keep riding that ridiculous Browns defense while it stays scorching hot.

I was playing the trends and backing Lamar Jackson as an underdog at a key number. I expect points to be hard to come by, so that makes that +3 even more important.

Underdogs of four or less in games with a total under 42 are 82-49-2 ATS the last five seasons (63%), and AFC North underdogs under four points are 51-19-4 ATS in division games since 2009 (63%). If you like Baltimore, you may want to play the moneyline and/or grab the +210 division odds too (BetRivers).

For now, though, this bet is off with the Deshaun Watson news.

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Bengals vs Titans Odds, Picks

• Both offenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league in Offensive DVOA, stuck in the mud so far.
• Joe Burrow started and played Monday night without re-injury, but clearly does not look whole yet, so that limits Cincinnati's offense in many ways. Tennessee is dealing with injuries across the defensive and offensive line, down its best two starters.

Monday night sure wasn't pretty, but a win is a win. This game could set up a similar script, with the Titans offensive line even worse than the Rams, and Tennessee's pass defense just as beatable.

Burrow doesn't look great, but trust the rest of the roster. Trey Hendrickson and the defensive front won the game Monday night and can do it again here, and Burrow should be able to get the ball out to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and just let the team outplay the Titans with pure talent.

I don't expect to enjoy this bet in what will likely be an ugly, low-scoring game, but I'm trusting the much better Bengals roster to get the job done. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS, which makes this a buy-low spot. Teams that are 20% ATS or worse facing opponents at 60% ATS or better are 86-47-3 ATS from October forward (65%). Trust Burrow and the more talented team to find a way to earn a much needed win.

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Buccaneers vs Saints Odds, Picks

• Derek Carr has an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder; although he's "optimistic" he'll play, Jameis Winston could get the start against his longtime former team. Winston started against the Bucs each of the last two seasons too, losing 20-10 last year and leaving injured in the previous start.
• Alvin Kamara returns from suspension to make his season debut, but he's struggled against the Bucs over his career, averging 3.7 YPC and under 34 rushing yards a game.
• The road team has won seven of the last 11 in this rivalry, and Tampa Bay has won three of the last five overall, holding the Saints to 18.2 PPG in those five.

These teams look pretty even so far. Both defenses have played well, especially against the pass. Both offenses have been relatively average, with the Saints slightly better but downgraded if Carr is out. But with two even teams, why are the Bucs catching more than a field goal?

It's almost always a good idea to bet against Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston as favorites, if Winston does get the start. Allen is 4-10 ATS when favored, including 1-6 in the division. Winston is 31% ATS as a favorite, including a horrible 3-11-1  as a favorite of three or more.

Winston is just 8-7 SU in those games, effectively a .500 QB even when he's on the clearly better team. Play the +160 ML too. This is a big opportunity for the Bucs.

Dennis Allen and Todd Bowles are bad head coaches, but they sure can coach the daylights out of a defense. The defenses are clearly the strength for both sides, especially with failed No. 1 picks Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield potentially squaring off.

Bowles road unders have been profitable at 27-15, a 64% hit rate. Hopefully the quarterbacks aren't so bad that we get a defensive score here. Otherwise, expect a tight, low-scoring game.

Underdogs of four or less with a total at 42 or below are 82-49-2 ATS (63%) the last five years. This total is below 40 and I lean under anyways, which means points will be hard to come by, and that makes the +3.5 especially valuable. I have to keep fading Allen and his QBs until they prove otherwise.

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Commanders vs Eagles Odds, Picks

• The Eagles have won nine of 12 in this division rivalry, but Washington won the last one in November, spoiling the perfect season in Philadelphia in an embarrassing Monday night loss, the only one by Jalen Hurts last regular season. Philly may be out for revenge.
• Washington started 2-0, but Sam Howell was sacked nine times with four interceptions in a blowout loss to the Bills. The Eagles were two sacks away from an all-time NFL record last season.

The trends say to swallow hard and play the number for a long division underdog. Underdogs of more than 6.5 points are 61% ATS the first five weeks of the season, and you know Ron Rivera always seems to outperform expectations in these spots. Rivera is 9-5-1 ATS (64%) as an underdog over a touchdown and 22-15-1 ATS (59%) as a division dog.

Jack Del Rio's defense has held Nick Sirianni's Eagles offense in check. Can Washington go back to Philly and do it again?

Do I even need to explain it?

This offense still looks stuck in mud at times, but when the going gets rough, this line just clears the way and lets the run game take over. Out with the Tush Push, in with the Brotherly Shove. Haters gonna hate, only cuz they can't do it like the Eagles can. Hurts has a rushing score in 11 of 18 games (61%) since the start of last season.

I lean Washington on the trends, but Philadelphia just looks way better at nearly everything on paper, and Hurts and the Eagles have been awesome at home. I can't bet it, but my spidey senses smell a huge Eagles revenge victory after what happened last year.

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Rams vs Colts Odds, Picks

• Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson missed last week in concussion protocol but is cleared to play Sunday.
• This line has bounced back and forth all week around -1 each way and looks like a pick'em.

Listen, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Stafford keeps hitting his yardage over, so until books adjust the line far enough, we may as well just keep playing. He's over this number all three games on the season and 17 of 29 games (59%) as a Ram, and the Colts have a super young cornerback room that Stafford should pick apart.

Indianapolis has allowed four opposing players to hit 6+ catches already, too. Puka Nacua had a quiet Week 3 but hit 10 and 15 catches those first two weeks. This could be Nacua's last chance to make a statement before Cooper Kupp returns. He's +205 to have at least eight catches and +625 to have 10 (Bet365).

Jonathan Taylor is set to come off the IR next week but reportedly doesn't want to come back. With the way Zack Moss is running, the Colts may not force the issue. Moss ran 30 times for 122 yards last week after debuting Week 2 with 18 rushes for 88.

It's more brutally efficient than pretty, but Moss is getting the job done and has established himself as the clear lead back. The Rams rank 29th in Rushing DVOA and just got gashed by the Eagles Monday night, so Moss should get to this number with ease. If you're into it and ready to punt Taylor to the curb, Moss is still +3000 to lead the league in rushing yards too.

This is a fun matchup between two of the bigger overachievers so far this season, but I don't have a good feel for a side, so this is a game I'll just watch, enjoy, and learn from.

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Steelers vs Texans Odds, Picks

• Injuries continue to kill Houston's offensive line and secondary. Add Josh Jones to the long list of Texans OL injuries, and with Laremy Tunsil out, we could see some third-string starters. The secondary is missing Derek Stingley Jr. and its nickel corner, though S Jalen Pitre will return.
• Pittsburgh's injury list isn't as long, but Diontae Johnson and Cam Heyward are major absences from each side of the ball. The Steelers have struggled to find any rhythm offensively through three weeks.

Everyone's been getting a bit too excited for Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud in recent weeks, and he could be in for a rude awakening against this Pittsburgh pass rush. Stroud struggles badly under pressure, and he could be under heat all night with a makeshift line against T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the crew.

Pittsburgh's offense needs all the help it can get, but this defense is good enough to get on the scoreboard all on its own and has done so a few times already. This is a classic Tomlin letdown spot especially with the offense MIA, so let's hope the defense makes something happen.

Be sure to play at DraftKings if you can, since the odds there include special teams TDs, too.

This total is rising, and I don't see why. Houston's run defense has been terrible, but the Steelers can't run the ball to save their lives, and the Texans defense will keep getting better as the secondary gets healthy. Still, Stroud won't be able to pick apart Pittsburgh's defense the way he has lesser opponents.

Mike Tomlin has been the most profitable road unders coach over the past two decades at 74-54-1 (58%), and games with home underdogs have hit the under 61% of the last two seasons.

I think Stroud struggles against the Pittsburgh pass rush with all those line injuries, but I'm not loving the Steelers offense, either. I'll follow the trends and expect a tough, low-scoring game.

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Vikings vs Panthers Odds, Picks

• Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young is expected to play and replace Andy Dalton in the starting lineup. Carolina is missing key defenders Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn.
• The Vikings have been the unluckiest team in football so far, per our Luck Rankings. Minnesota is 0-3 in one-score games and seems to lose every 50-50 ball or lucky bounce to the opponent.

Alexander Mattison finally ignited the run game last week, but that didn't stop Cousins from throwing. He chucked it 50 times, up from 44 each of the first two games, and he leads all players in passing yards and touchdowns. Cousins has racked up 344, 364, and 367 yards, increasing each game.

We played the Cousins escalator last week and hit every level. Shall we run it back? Remember, the point of an escalator is that our bet does the work for us — each time we hit one level, the odds for the next level up are implicitly wrong. Cousins is +180 for 300 yards, +305 for 325, and +575 for 350 at Caesars.

It's not exactly a revenge spot for the kid from Detroit Lakes, Minnesota, but you know Thielen would love to have a nice game against his old team. Thielen has found the end zone each of the past two games and is the de facto WR1, with 18 catches for 199 yards on 23 targets in those two games.

You can make a case for receiving yards or a TD too, but I trust Thielen's volume the most, especially as the team tries to get him chances against his old team. If he gets double-digit targets again as expected, five catches should be a cinch. Definitely play 7+ catches for +450 too (Bet365), which he's hit twice in a row.

I'm playing it all! I'm a Vikings fan, and the season is already dead. I've been following Thielen since his high school days. Just let me have this one. Besides, Thielen's odds in particular look way short.

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Broncos vs Bears Odds, Picks

• The Broncos just gave up 70 points in an NFL game. They're now favored the following week. On the road. By more than a field goal. So yeah… that's about how Denver and Chicago's seasons are going.
• In games between winless teams, underdogs are 71-37-4 ATS (66%).

The Broncos had a bad week. The Bears have had a bad century. Chicago ranks bottom three on Offense, Defense, and Overall DVOA. The Bears are terrible at everything. Denver had a miserable defensive week, but at least the Broncos still scored 20 and look at least average offensively.

I wouldn't play this above the key number of three, but bet on this team to show up with some pride after embarrassing itself and get Sean Payton his first win with the Broncos.

Don't feign ignorance. You know as well as I do there's only one thing Bears fans are rooting for this weekend: losses by both Chicago and Carolina, tentatively setting the Bears up with the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in next year's draft.

For one week alone, root for the Vikings and fade the Bears, lock in a couple 0-4 records, and fall asleep dreaming of Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.

I'm honestly going to just pretend this game never happened.

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