NFL Week 4 Picks, Player Props: 9 Best Bets for 1 p.m. ET Slate
Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen (left) and Mike Evans.
We have you covered when the first big batch of NFL games kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
Our staff of betting analysts has sides, totals and player props for you to start your afternoon betting. Get our NFL picks for Week 4 below.
NFL Picks: Week 4
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dolphins vs. Bills
The unquestioned game of the weekend in the NFL as the 3-0 Dolphins face the should-be 3-0 Bills in a battle for AFC East supremacy. The Bills caught a break from the schedule makers and won’t have to go to Miami in September again after the offense was gassed at the end of last year’s contest.
Miami’s offense has been a supernova through three weeks, lapping the entire league in efficiency and production. It is the talk of the league right now, but the Bills defense might be an underrated part of the story.
The Bills have faced Sam Howell, Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Wilson, but the healthy version of this Buffalo defense has quietly posted elite numbers. They are second in EPA per play allowed, second in EPA per dropback and top 10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed. The Dolphins will be the most public dog of the entire weekend, but the Buffalo defense is the differentiator and they’ll get more stops to win this game late.
Save for a terrible second half from Josh Allen in Week 1 against a defense that has consistently given him fits, Buffalo has been as elite as advertised.
These two teams played in December and Buffalo was -7 with Tua Tagovailoa playing. Now it’s -2.5. I’ll take the Bills at a discount.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-120)
Dolphins vs. Bills
This is one of my favorite go-to prop bets. Over the past couple of years, the Bills consistently save Allen's legs and run him more in big spots against top teams, unleashing him for designed runs and scrambles. Look at the numbers over the last two seasons:
- 22 games vs. non-playoff teams: 6.4 carries a game for 39.5 yards
- 16 games vs. playoff teams: 8.7 carries for 53.0 yards, with 44+ in 10/16
The pattern is consistent: Allen is up at least 34% in both rushing attempts and yards against better opponents. So far this year Allen hasn't run much, just 4.0 times a game for an average of 29.7 yards. Why? Because the Bills have played Washington, Vegas, and Zach Wilson's Jets! Even so, he still went over this line twice.
Last year against Miami, Allen rushed eight times for 47 yards and 10 times for 47 yards. He went under at four carries for 20 yards in the playoff matchup — but that was only because Buffalo was facing third-string QB Skylar Thompson! The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments. This is one of them. Give me the over, and I'll play 50+ at +220 too (bet365).
This is one of my favorite go-to props in big games, and this line is about 10 yards too low. I'll play 50+ at +220 too, and look for Allen to run early and often.
Picks: Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-113), 50+ Rushing Yards (+220)
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Bengals vs. Titans
By Simon Hunter
Joe Burrow doesn't look right.
If Burrow can't scramble, he's no different than 20 other starters in this league. The Titans have a ton of talent on the defensive line, so putting Burrow under pressure and getting him off his spot will be a huge advantage. I can see Tennessee taking away the Bengals' run game and making Burrow win the game with his arm.
This game should be a pick'em. The Bengals won last week on Monday Night Football, while the Titans were blown out by 24. People are leaving Tennessee for dead, but Mike Vrabel as a short home 'dog will always have value to me. He's going to drag this Bengals team down into the mud.
Bengals vs. Titans
Joe Burrow and the Bengals won a must-win game at home on Monday Night Football, but there was nothing in the offensive performance to be excited about going forward.
Ja’Marr Chase remains an excellent wide receiver both during and after the catch, but Burrow finished the game at -0.11 EPA per dropback. He went from one of the most accurate throwers in the NFL when healthy to the league’s worst quarterback by completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
It’s clear Burrow is playing through injury and trying to keep the offense afloat in the interim, but the Bengals cannot run the ball at all and will face a tough matchup against an underrated Titans defense.
Tennessee is top five in rushing success rate allowed this season. Burrow’s inability to push the ball downfield because of his injury and the offensive line will lead to a lot of long, methodical field goal drives for the Cincinnati offense — similar to Monday night.
Buccaneers vs. Saints
These teams look pretty even so far. Both defenses have played well, especially against the pass. Both offenses have been relatively average, with the Saints slightly better but now downgraded with Carr out. But with two even teams, why are the Bucs catching more than a field goal?
It's almost always a good idea to bet against Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston as favorites. Allen is 4-10 ATS when favored, including 1-6 in the division. Winston is 31% against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, including a horrible 3-11-1 as a favorite of three or more.
Winston is just 8-7 straight-up (SU) in those games, effectively a .500 QB even when he's clearly on the better team. Play the +165 ML too. This is a big opportunity for the Bucs.
Underdogs of four or fewer points with a total at 42 or below are 82-49-2 (63%) ATS the last five years. This total is below 40 and I lean toward the under anyway, which means points will be hard to come by, and that makes the +3.5 especially valuable. I have to keep fading Allen and his QBs until they prove otherwise.
Pick: Bucs +3.5 & ML (+165)
Broncos vs. Bears
The Broncos have looked like one of the worst teams in the league this season, but this is a perfect get-right spot.
While Russell Wilson hasn't looked great this season, he has put up some solid numbers over the last two games with 300 passing yards in each. Now, he draws a great matchup against the Bears.
Chicago had the worst pass defense in the league last season, and it might be worse this year. The Bears have given up 285 yards per game through the air and outside of the Chiefs (who threw in their backups at halftime), they haven't faced any good passing teams to date.
I have Wilson projected for over 270 yards in this spot, and this is probably my favorite bet of the week. I would hit this line all the way up to 255.
Pick: Russell Wilson Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Vikings vs. Panthers
It's not exactly a revenge spot for the kid from Detroit Lakes, Minnesota, but you know Thielen would love to have a nice game against his old team. Thielen has found the end zone each of the past two games and is the de facto WR1, with 18 catches for 199 yards on 23 targets in those two games.
Rams vs. Colts
By Sam Farley
The Colts offense has been a curious one so far this season, partly because of the exclusion of Jonathan Taylor and partly down to both Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew, two very different quarterbacks playing under center.
Regardless of who has been quarterbacking this team, we’ve seen one consistent: Michael Pittman Jr. The former USC man was primed to break out last season, but it never happened. 2023, though, feels like it could be his time.
Pittman's reception line sits at 5.5, which feels like great value. He’s been targeted 34 times this season with 11 being the minimum number of looks he's gotten in a single game. He has hauled in at least eight passes in every game.
Rams vs. Colts
By Sam Farley
Have the bookies not been watching the Texans? Before you even look into the numbers, it’s clear that Tank Dell has the "it" factor. Then, when you watch the Texans play, he more than passes the eye test.
Dell’s receiving yards line currently sits at 43.5, a number I’m smashing the over on and would take all the way up to 50. It’s clear that Dell developed a real connection with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud, and his role in the offense is growing.
In the opening week of the season, Dell had three receptions on four targets for 34 yards, but he's had 12 receptions on 17 targets for a huge 217 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks.
Dell is a real deep threat and hugely dangerous in space, which gives me real hope that he should obliterate this total against a Steelers defense that has allowed 211 receiving yards per game, which is the 28th worst in the NFL.
Pick: Tank Dell Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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