A handful of NFL teams are in need of a new quarterback, and prediction market traders are betting real money on which team will spend a Round 1 pick on a signal-caller during the 2026 NFL Draft.
On Polymarket, "Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft?" continues to garner volume. Recently, the odds have greatly fluctuated.
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Which NFL Teams Are Being Traded The Most?
At the moment, the Las Vegas Raiders are by far the most likely option, climbing all the way up to 100%. Despite being the second-most likely, traders are steering clear of the Cleveland Browns (45%), and the Miami Dolphins (18%) also have fairly low trading volume.
In fact, the teams that are statistically more unlikely to take a QB in Round 1 are attracting most of the volume. This includes the Pittsburgh Steelers (16%), who have received over $10,000 in bought contracts despite seeing a cumulative 35% dip in likelihood.
The Tennessee Titans are another example of this, attracting over $3,700 in trading volume at just a 2% chance. While odd in some ways, it's not surprising when you consider the value based on the way these contracts are priced. Steelers "Yes" contracts can currently be purchased for 11 cents, and it's just over 3 cents to buy the "Yes" on the Titans.
Which NFL Teams Will Draft a Round 1 QB?
Before we dive into our analysis, it's important to note that the 2026 NFL Draft is fairly weak in terms of high-end QB prospects. According to consensus, the only surefire first-rounder is Fernando Mendoza (Indiana).
With this position scarcity in mind, the overwhelmingly high odds of the Raiders selecting Mendoza with the first overall pick make a lot of sense. Las Vegas desperately needs a franchise quarterback, and Mendoza is viewed by many as an accurate, pro-ready pocket passer with a high IQ (think Kirk Cousins, who is also on the Raiders).
The only other QB with a moderately decent chance of being taken in Round 1 is Ty Simpson (Alabama). Like Mendoza, he's known for his quick field-processing abilities and high football IQ. The only knocks are his slightly higher age (a year older than Mendoza) and limited experience as a starter.
Still, needy teams are circling, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him selected by either the Steelers or the Browns. Pittsburgh has the 21st overall pick, and while Aaron Rodgers is still in the mix, his age indicates that they'll probably have to move on from him at some point in the next couple of seasons (if not now). This could make them a good match for Simpson, who is less pro-ready and could stand to benefit from sitting behind an established vet of Rodgers' pedigree for a season or two.
When it comes to the Browns, their QB room is packed with options. That said, they've made it clear that it won't stop them from exploring other avenues. Holding the 6th and 24th picks, it's feasible to see Cleveland take a chance on Simpson if he's still available at 24.
The Dolphins are another dark horse candidate that could be in on Simpson. It wouldn't make much sense to take him with the 11th pick, but there's reason to believe Miami could take a swing if he's around at pick 30. On the other hand, the Dolphins have seven picks within the top-100, and the recent signing of Malik Willis to a three-year contract could result in them waiting until Day 2 or later to select a QB.
When Will This Market Conclude?
According to Polymarket, this market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed team selects a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. This means all "Yes" contracts of teams that do so will cash.
If not, the market will resolve to "No", at which point only "No" contracts taken out on teams that don't select a QB in Round 1 would garner a profit. The primary resolution source will most likely be official information provided by the NFL, but a consensus of credible reporting from other sources may also be used.
