49ers vs Eagles Picks: How to Bet Elite NFC Matchup

49ers vs Eagles Picks | NFL Week 14

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back and find a 49ers vs. Eagles pick for each side.

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• This game will have a huge impact in shaping the NFC playoff picture. Per Aaron Schatz, an Eagles win will make Philadelphia an overwhelming favorites to land the 1-seed (85%), giving the Eagles that lone bye week and home field all the way back to the Super Bowl. However, a 49ers win drops the Eagles to a 29% chance of earning the top seed and gives San Francisco a 49% chance to get that bye in a suddenly tight race.
• This is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, but hopefully in name only. You might recall the teams practically going through the motions at times when San Francisco literally ran out of quarterbacks healthy enough to throw a forward pass.
• All of the most recognizable stars are healthy and good to go this time, but Philadelphia does have some significant injury issues. Veteran Fletcher Cox is a doubt on the defensive line and LB Zach Cunningham may also miss this game. Stud RT Lane Johnson is also injured and he’s a huge question mark on that dominant offensive line, and TE Dallas Goedert is still out too. The 49ers have a clear health advantage and are also coming off an extra half week of rest since they played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles' defense was on the field for 95 plays against the Bills.
• Both teams are great at a lot of things, but if there’s one weak unit on the field, it’s Philadelphia’s defense  —  particularly its pass defense. The Eagles rank 16th in Defensive DVOA and 21st against the pass, and that Defensive Rating is bottom 10 over the past five games. San Francisco leads the league in passing and overall Offensive DVOA.

I love the 49ers here. This is my favorite side of the week and a matchup I’ve been waiting for all season, and I already grabbed San Francisco on the Hot Read on Sunday night at -110 on the moneyline.

I'm fading an Eagles team that’s clearly good, but also a bit overrated. Philadelphia is a good team masquerading as elite, second in our Luck Rankings thanks to a 7–1 record in one-score games, five of those against teams .500 or worse. Elite teams shouldn’t be in so many toss-up games against inferior opponents. The Eagles have trailed at halftime in four straight games and have been outgained by at least 98 yards in all four. It matters that they won those games, but the struggles getting over the finish line matter too.

But this isn’t just a blind Philly fade .  I love this matchup for the 49ers because San Francisco will dominate the middle of the field. Kyle Shanahan unlocks the middle of the field with his offense better than anyone, and Philadelphia’s defense is built to sacrifice the middle of the field and invest on the line and at corner. The linebackers are weak, and the 49ers will attack that weakness with 21 and 22 personnel. Christian McCaffrey is a nightmare matchup, and George Kittle should have a huge day against a pass defense that ranks 32nd by DVOA against TEs.

The 49ers rank first in DVOA on first and second down, while the Eagles are 22nd defensively on first down. On defense, the 49ers are also built to win the middle of the field with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw perhaps more capable than any linebackers in the league to handle Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s rushing attack. The Eagles' run game also hasn’t been as strong this season and is further compromised by the Lane Johnson injury.

It's time, 49ers fans. You've been waiting for this one.

Pick: 49ers -3

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I'm not sure why books keep hanging this line so low. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in eight of 11 games this season. That's a 73% hit rate, which would imply a number closer to -300 than basically even odds. Hurts also had at least one rushing score in each playoff game, so all the better that this is such a big game. With a total at 48 and rising all week, books are expecting touchdowns. Hurts will get at least one of them.

If you're looking for some hope for Philadelphia after all that San Francisco love, the Eagles certainly have some advantages too. The pass rush could wreak havoc on a beatable Niners o-line, and Brock Purdy needs to prove he can show up in big games like this, especially if he's under pressure. Philadelphia has a huge special teams advantage and the 49ers have no real answer for A.J. Brown. The Eagles also have a huge third quarter advantage by the numbers, so don't rule out yet another late push … a Tush Push, if you will.

I bought the 49ers at -2.5, but I’d buy at -3 if needed. I don’t think the 49ers just win, I think they'll expose Philadelphia in a statement game. As such, I’ll look to play some San Francisco alt lines, so keep an eye on the Action app. I’ve been waiting to back the 49ers in this spot, and it’s all lining up.

I’ll also sprinkle a little on George Kittle at +330 to hit 75 receiving yards (bet365). He’s done that five times this season, and with the Eagles so bad against tight ends and needing to give so much attention to McCaffrey, I like Kittle’s chances of having a huge game.