NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL this week with our preview of NFL Week 13: odds and picks for every game and every team.

We'll go through the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 13, plus how to bet on every team in each game, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game), with my picks at the end.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!

NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

49ers vs Eagles Odds, Picks

• This game will have a huge impact in shaping the NFC playoff picture. Per Aaron Schatz, an Eagles win will make Philadelphia an overwhelming favorites to land the 1-seed (85%), giving the Eagles that lone bye week and home field all the way back to the Super Bowl. However, a 49ers win drops the Eagles to a 29% chance of earning the top seed and gives San Francisco a 49% chance to get that bye in a suddenly tight race.
• This is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, but hopefully in name only. You might recall the teams practically going through the motions at times when San Francisco literally ran out of quarterbacks healthy enough to throw a forward pass.
• All of the most recognizable stars are healthy and good to go this time, but Philadelphia does have some significant injury issues. Veteran Fletcher Cox is a doubt on the defensive line and LB Zach Cunningham may also miss this game. Stud RT Lane Johnson is also injured and he’s a huge question mark on that dominant offensive line, and TE Dallas Goedert is still out too. The 49ers have a clear health advantage and are also coming off an extra half week of rest since they played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles' defense was on the field for 95 plays against the Bills.
• Both teams are great at a lot of things, but if there’s one weak unit on the field, it’s Philadelphia’s defense  —  particularly its pass defense. The Eagles rank 16th in Defensive DVOA and 21st against the pass, and that Defensive Rating is bottom 10 over the past five games. San Francisco leads the league in passing and overall Offensive DVOA.

I love the 49ers here. This is my favorite side of the week and a matchup I’ve been waiting for all season, and I already grabbed San Francisco on the Hot Read on Sunday night at -110 on the moneyline.

I'm fading an Eagles team that’s clearly good, but also a bit overrated. Philadelphia is a good team masquerading as elite, second in our Luck Rankings thanks to a 7–1 record in one-score games, five of those against teams .500 or worse. Elite teams shouldn’t be in so many toss-up games against inferior opponents. The Eagles have trailed at halftime in four straight games and have been outgained by at least 98 yards in all four. It matters that they won those games, but the struggles getting over the finish line matter too.

But this isn’t just a blind Philly fade .  I love this matchup for the 49ers because San Francisco will dominate the middle of the field. Kyle Shanahan unlocks the middle of the field with his offense better than anyone, and Philadelphia’s defense is built to sacrifice the middle of the field and invest on the line and at corner. The linebackers are weak, and the 49ers will attack that weakness with 21 and 22 personnel. Christian McCaffrey is a nightmare matchup, and George Kittle should have a huge day against a pass defense that ranks 32nd by DVOA against TEs.

The 49ers rank first in DVOA on first and second down, while the Eagles are 22nd defensively on first down. On defense, the 49ers are also built to win the middle of the field with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw perhaps more capable than any linebackers in the league to handle Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s rushing attack. The Eagles' run game also hasn’t been as strong this season and is further compromised by the Lane Johnson injury.

It's time, 49ers fans. You've been waiting for this one.

I'm not sure why books keep hanging this line so low. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in eight of 11 games this season. That's a 73% hit rate, which would imply a number closer to -300 than basically even odds. Hurts also had at least one rushing score in each playoff game, so all the better that this is such a big game. With a total at 48 and rising all week, books are expecting touchdowns. Hurts will get at least one of them.

If you're looking for some hope for Philadelphia after all that San Francisco love, the Eagles certainly have some advantages too. The pass rush could wreak havoc on a beatable Niners o-line, and Brock Purdy needs to prove he can show up in big games like this, especially if he's under pressure. Philadelphia has a huge special teams advantage and the 49ers have no real answer for A.J. Brown. The Eagles also have a huge third quarter advantage by the numbers, so don't rule out yet another late push … a Tush Push, if you will.

I’m still buying the 49ers at -2.5, and I’d buy at -3 if needed. I don’t think the 49ers just win, I think they'll expose Philadelphia in a statement game. As such, I’ll look to play some San Francisco alt lines, so keep an eye on the Action app. I’ve been waiting to back the 49ers in this spot, and it’s all lining up.

I’ll also sprinkle a little on George Kittle at +330 to hit 75 receiving yards (bet365). He’s done that five times this season, and with the Eagles so bad against tight ends and needing to give so much attention to McCaffrey, I like Kittle’s chances of having a huge game.

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Browns vs Rams Odds, Picks

• Joe Flacco is back! Flacco un-retired to sign with the Browns, and now he gets the start at QB with Dorian Thompson-Robinson out. Flacco was 3-14 SU the last four seasons, so bad even the Jets didn't want him. Among QBs with at least 400 passing attempts during that span, Flacco ranks 50th of 57 QBs in EPA + CPOE, behind such luminaries as Demond Ridder, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles and about on par with Drew Lock and Sam Darnold.
• Though DTR is out, it's relatively good news for Cleveland on the injury front. CB Denzel Ward is out, but both Myles Garrett and and Amari Cooper have no designation on the injury report.
• A few team-agnostic trends suggest value on the underdog Browns. Underdogs of four or less in games with a total below 42 are 61% ATS since 2018, while teams coming off a loss by 17+ facing a team that just won by 17+ are 62% ATS. Beware buying high on the Rams.

All the focus is on Flacco with this line rising, but are we sure Flacco is even a worse option than DTR or P.J. Walker? The Browns offense has been miserable without Deshaun Watson, bottom quartile in DVOA and bottom four passing, so why not find out what Flacco has to offer?

The Browns can dominate in the trenches like usual. The outstanding interior line can handle Aaron Donald, and with Garrett healthy, the elite pass rush can make mincemeat of a bad Rams line and make life miserable for Matthew Stafford. And how about a little attention on that opposing QB, by the way?

Stafford has been mostly terrible in his career against good teams. From November forward, once we know who's actually good, Stafford is just 30% ATS against teams over .500 including just 9-8 SU as a favorite. As a favorite by three or more in that spot, Stafford is 2-8 ATS and just 4-6 SU, with bettors seeing an 88% ROI on the moneyline in that spot. Trust the defense — and trust Stafford.

It's easy to get excited about the Rams offense now that it's finally healthy, but Stafford and LA are about to get a jolt going from facing the Cardinals defense in a glorified scrimmage to facing this league-best Browns D by DVOA. Cleveland's pass rush will put Stafford under heat all game now that we know Myles Garrett is a full go, and Stafford has struggled against good teams in his career (see above).

Maybe the Rams win, but it probably won't be clean or easy. Stafford has played 36 Rams regular season games. He's thrown 34 interceptions in those 36 games, with at least one pick in 23 of them (64%), and that includes seven of 10 games this season (70%). At -118, this line implies just 51.8% odds of a Stafford interception, and that's just too low against a defense this great.

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I won't go crazy here, but I just can't shake the feeling that this line is giving Stafford and the Rams far too much respect against this elite Cleveland defense.

The Browns had no business beating the 49ers, Ravens, Steelers, or Bengals, either, but beat all those teams already and have been within four points in all but two games, even with all the injuries and QB issues. Why can't Flacco be an improvement on a fifth-round rookie QB? Why believe in Stafford against a good team now?

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Panthers vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks

• The axe fell for Frank Reich this week as Carolina moved on from its head coach after just 11 games. Special teams coach Chris Tabor takes over, and Thomas Brown will resume calling plays as the Panthers look to find a rhythm offensively.
• Any number of team-agnostic trends suggest value on Carolina as a positive regression candidate at this point of the season. Underdogs at 20% or worse ATS cover at a 62% clip after Week 6, and such 'dogs facing a team at 60% ATS or better in October and later are 72-42-2 ATS (63%). Underdogs that have scored 16 or less in at least three straight are also 64% ATS. What goes down must come up.

Thielen is coming off his worst game of the season — a single catch for two yards on three targets. But, he'd recorded at least five catches in nine straight games before that. He's been a receptions monster and is clearly Bryce Young's security blanket, and his recent dip in production has dropped the line back to where it provides value.

The Bucs have allowed the most yards in the league to wide receivers and rank near the top in receptions allowed, particularly in the slot where Thielen thrives. Opposing WR1s against the Bucs have at least six catches in eight of 11 games (73%) with an average line of 6.9 catches for 94.6 yards. Check out some of the lines Tampa has allowed: Justin Jefferson 9/150, D.J. Moore 6/104, A.J. Brown 9/131, Amon-Ra St. Brown 12/124 and Michael Pittman 10/107 just last week.

I'd project Thielen closer to seven receptions, so this line is a full catch too low. Five WR1s have at least nine catches against the Bucs, and we've seen Thielen hit 11 catches three times this year. He's +330 to hit eight catches and +1025 for at least 10 at bet365 if you want to ride the Thielen escalator.

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Carolina's run defense is abysmal, but the Bucs can't run the ball to save their lives and won't be able to hurt the Panthers there. Carolina is struggling to score, but it's not like Tampa Bay is putting up big points lately either.

Both teams are 8-3 to the under, and games with a total this low (37.5) have been going under this season. But the numbers show both defenses to be far better in the first half — Carolina is 15th in DVOA versus 32nd in the second half, while Tampa Bay ranks seventh versus 21st — so this is a way to play the under trends, but isolate them to the best portion of the game for the under.

I've been riding the Thielen escalator all season, so this is a great spot to buy in again. I love the over of 5.5 receptions and will sprinkle the escalator up to 10 catches.

I really like this spot for the Panthers too, riding a potential dead-cat bounce after Reich's firing. If Carolina gets to at least +6, I may look to play the Panthers and will also consider a moneyline play in a game where the Panthers look live for the upset.

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Sunday Night Football: Chiefs vs Packers Odds, Picks

• Be careful about buying in at peak value on the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a huge road win over Detroit that everyone watched on Thanksgiving, and this line dropped from Packers +7 to +6 since Sunday, showing a rare spot where money appears to be coming in against Patrick Mahomes.
• Then again, the Packers are playing really good football of late, and it's not just that Thanksgiving game. Over the past five weeks, Green Bay ranks top 12 on both offense and defense by DVOA and 10th overall. The Packers actually rank higher than the Chiefs, whose offense rates league-average over that span and just 20th in passing as Mahomes continues to try to find some answers.
• You probably already know about primetime unders: 29-10 on the season (74%) and hitting at 62% over the past four seasons. Games with home underdogs have gone under 62% of the time the past three seasons, and Chiefs games are 8-3 to the under, including 11-0 in the second half. Be careful, though — this total has actually risen from 41.5 to 42.5.

Green Bay is starting to find a few answers in the first half and certainly came out firing in the first quarter on Thanksgiving, but the Packers have mostly been slow starters this season. Green Bay's offense ranks 21st by DVOA in the first half, but leaps to eighth in the second half, when Jordan Love has looked more comfortable.

You've heard all about Kansas City's second-half woes. The Chiefs finally scored in the second half last week for the first time in four games, but just haven't been great in the back half. The offense ranks 17th by DVOA in the second half with the defense at 11th, still fine but not great, and nothing compared to the first half where the Chiefs rank top three in both directions.

This doesn't quite get us below the key number, but it's a good way to isolate the part of the game where the Chiefs have been best against the part where Green Bay's been at its worst.

The Chiefs' defense has been really good, but Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job with the Packers offense and Jordan Love is playing the best football of his career. He's played his three best games ever over the past month and is starting to look comfortable reading the defense and throwing quicker, more accurate passes.

All those under tendencies above have suppressed this total. Combine that with the Chiefs being favored by six and it's left value on Green Bay's team total as 17.5 isn't a big ask. The Packers have gone over that in four straight games and have scored at least 17 points in all but two games on the season. Green Bay's offensive line will give it a chance, and the Packers should be able to run some to make life easier on Love. We know Mahomes will score some points, so the Packers need to get to 18 to have any real chance.

It's Packers or nothing with a line that feels a touch high, but I'm not sure I'm ready to trust Jordan Love in a marquee matchup against Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes always seems to find a way when the spotlight is brightest, and I know from experience it's just not a lot of fun betting against Mahomes in a big game. Green Bay is actually more likely than not to make the playoffs at this point, so this qualifies as a big spot. I'll watch and learn.

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Monday Night Football: Bengals vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

• Jake Browning will make his second NFL start at QB, filling in for Joe Burrow, but the rest of the injury report is actually fairly encouraging. It looks like Tee Higgins and LB Logan Wilson are good to go for Cincinnati, and Travis Etienne is expected to play for Jacksonville despite limited practice with a rib injury.
• Home field advantage for the Jaguars? Jacksonville has been significantly worse at home this season. The Jaguars rank 24th on offense and 12th on defense by DVOA at home, compared to 9th and 3rd away from Jacksonville.
• Could this be another primetime under? Primetime unders enter the weekend at 29-10, a 74% hit rate this year after 62% the last four seasons. Trevor Lawrence home unders are 14-7 for his career (67%), and if this drops to 38, totals at 38 or below this season are 15-3-1 to the under (83%).

This is just too many points for a Bengals team that's still alive and fighting for its playoff lives. Burrow is out, but the spirit of Burrow lives on in this team, and Cincinnati has thrived in an underdog role. All those Bengals weapons will give the offense a chance to produce as Browning gets more comfortable, enough to hang around and maybe even steal a win.

Cincinnati's defense has cratered against the run, but with Etienne banged up and the Jaguars poor running up the middle where the Bengals are at their worst, it'll be up to the pass defense to hang, and Jacksonville's passing attack has been inconsistent. Trevor Lawrence is 1-5 ATS as a favorite of over four points (17%), and he's lost three of those six games outright as a big favorite.

Lawrence and the Jaguars need to prove they're worthy of being such heavy favorites. This is just too many points for a talented Bengals team that's not dead yet, and this game reeks of ruining end-of-week teasers and parlays.

Engram has burned us the last few weeks, but bettors have to have a short memory, and we're going back to the well. The Bengals defense ranks third worst against tight ends by DVOA and bottom three in fantasy points, receptions, and yards allowed to tight ends.

Cincinnati has been eminently beatable over the middle. Just look at lines we've seen against the Bengals by tight ends the last five games alone: Pat Freiermuth 9/120, Dalton Schultz 4/71, Dalton Kincaid 10/81, George Kittle 9/149. Engram's production has been down lately, but the targets are still there. He has at least four receptions in every game this season, a floor that puts us one catch from the over, and he's averaging 6.4 catches. He's hit 7+ catches four times already too, so sprinkle the +500 escalator.

Monday looks like a fun sports night with Monday Night Football plus our first two NBA In-Season Tournament knockout games, and I don't have a great feel for a side in this game but need a little action to hold my interest with the NBA games, so let's play the Engram props.

The Bengals have been getting shredded by tight ends. I'm tempted by something like a 7/100 escalator given those lines, but Engram's YPC has been so blah this season that we'll stick with just receptions.

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• Najee Harris over 45.5 rushing yards
• 49ers -2.5
• Texans -3 or bet Texans live
• Tyreek Hill Anytime TD | 150+ receiving yards (+825)
• Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions | 8+ catches (+330) | 10+ catches (+1025)
• Michael Pittman over 6.5 receptions
• Jets +3
• Titans +1.5
• Browns ML +170
• Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (+110) | 7+ catches (+500)
• George Kittle 75+ receiving yards (+330)
• Taysom Hill 50+ rushing yards & anytime TD SGP (+850)
• Taysom Hill 75+ yards (+1425) | Two TDs (+2200)
• Week 14 Lookahead: Cowboys -2.5 vs Eagles
• Week 14 Lookahead: Steelers -6.5 vs Patriots & Ravens -7.5 vs Rams teased to PIT -0.5 & BAL -1.5

Broncos vs Texans Odds, Picks

• Would anyone have expected this to be the early Sunday afternoon headliner even a month ago? These teams are both 6-5, tied for the AFC 7-seed. The Texans have lost only three times since an 0-2 start, all by a field goal in the final minute. The Broncos started 1-5 but have won five straight, including wins against the Chiefs and Bills.
• Like usual this season, the Texans bring a long list of injuries to the game. TE Dalton Schultz is confirmed out, while WRs Tank Dell and Noah Brown are questionable to play. Sheldon Rankins is questionable on the D-line too, and the O-line suffered yet another injury last week when G Tytus Howard was lost for the season.
• We don't have Luck Rankings for just the past six weeks, but rest assured that the Broncos would rank near the top if we did. Denver has seen insane turnover luck during this five-game winning streak, gaining almost as much EPA on defensive turnovers in just these five games as the league leader typically does over a full season.

Sean Payton has done wonders with this team, and Denver has been at its best early when the Broncos are on script. The defense still ranks dead last by DVOA on the season thanks to that awful start, but even including the season-long numbers, the defense ranks top 10 in just the first quarter.

Denver's offense has been as good as any early. The Broncos rank No. 1 in first quarter DVOA on offense, while the Texans have actually been slow starters at 22nd in the first quarter but top 10 in each quarter after. Bank on the Broncos starting out hot as they ride that winning streak and show Houston that they're here up for the fight.

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Denver's profile is trending up during this winning streak, but it's amazing how easy life is when opponents turn it over all game. Houston has done an excellent job of not giving the ball away, and the Texans are a much better team in neutral settings.

The offense continues to be elite passing the ball with C.J. Stroud no matter what weapons he has. Even better, Denver's run defense is abysmal, which means that even as the Texans over-commit to the run like usual, it may not hurt Houston as much as it typically does. The Texans are going to move the ball and score some points, and as stout as Houston's run defense has been lately, that means it's on Russell Wilson to match Stroud throw for throw. Denver's offense ranks sixth at home by DVOA but just 24th on the road.

The Texans are just better. Houston is the better offense and the better defense. The Texans have the better QB, the better coaching staff, the better overall team more worthy of its record. If this is a playoff atmosphere, why not just take the better team with the better QB playing at home? Keep it simple.

I grabbed Texans -2.5 on The Hot Read on Sunday night, my first pick of the week. I still like the Texans for all the reasons above, but I like them a bit less with all the injuries (what else is new?) and like the Broncos a little more after digging in, especially early.

With the line rising to Texans -3 and even past the key number to -3.5 at times, the best option might be waiting on Denver's usual hot start and looking to bet the Texans live, perhaps for even or plus money on the moneyline. If you can't bet live, I'm still good with Texans -3 but would not play past the key number.

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Lions vs Saints Odds, Picks

• It's a pretty ugly injury list for the Saints. Chris Olave is practicing but hasn't been cleared from concussion protocol, and Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are already out, so the Saints could be out of receiving options. The defense is also missing a number of key players with S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner out and longtime DE Cam Jordan listed as questionable.
• Both defenses are trending down badly. The Saints defense that's been so good for so long ranks bottom five against both the run and the pass over the last five weeks by DVOA, and Detroit's defense has cratered since Week 7, ranking dead last in both EPA per play and Success Rate.

This total has been on the rise all week, up from 44.5 since Sunday, but that's because the over looks like the right play the way both defenses have been struggling so mightily.

The Saints defense looks ripe for the picking by this Ben Johnson offense that's scored at least 20 points in all but one game and that had been getting into a good rhythm before the Thanksgiving clunker. Jared Goff gets to play in a dome, and the Lions should find points. But the Saints should also be able to run on Detroit, and the Lions defense is going to give up points even protecting a lead.

The Lions entered the weekend 7-4 to the over, tied for tops in the league. In a season of unders, this is one spot to look over.

This feels like a Taysom Hill game, doesn't it? The entire receiving room is in the hospital, Derek Carr is struggling, and you want to chew up the clock and keep the ailing defense off the field. What better way than to turn to the one strength of the team of late, the run game?

Hill has unironically been the brightest spot on this offense all year, and New Orleans has been a top five rushing attack by DVOA over the last five games. This feels like one of those games where the Lions defense can't tackle and Hill just keeps running power right up the middle in an old school feel.

Hill is a boom-or-bust play, depending on the game script. He's gone under 20 yards seven times this season, averaging just 3.0 carries in those games, but he ran 36 times for 216 yards in the other four games. He's hit 50 rushing yards and a touchdown twice this year and five times since the start of last season. That's an 18.5% hit rate compared to the 10.5% implied we're getting here.

I'm trusting my gut and sprinkling some on some Taysom Hill. The Saints just don't appear to have many other options, and we've repeatedly seen Pete Carmichael turn to Hill in scripts like this the last few years.

This is not a spot to play median outcome. If we're wrong, Hill runs three times for 15 yards and we never get close. But if he gets at least nine carries, like he has 12 times the last three seasons, he averages 64.0 YPG rushing with seven TDs. Let's go ahead and sprinkle 75+ rushing yards at +1425 (bet365) and also two anytime TDs at +2200 (BetMGM), which he's done four and three times the last 32 games, respectively.

This one's for my podcast producer, David Payne. It's Taysom Hill SZN!

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Colts vs Titans Odds, Picks

• Star Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is out injured, so Zack Moss will be the lead back.
• It's typically a good idea to back Mike Vrabel as an underdog, and even better at home. Vrabel is 12-7 ATS as a home 'dog for his career, covering 63% of the time, and his Titans have won outright in every single one of those covers. Vrabel has also covered eight of his past 11 with a spread under three in either direction.
• The Colts dominated this division rivalry for a long time, winning 11 straight from 2011 through 2016, but Tennessee has had the upper hand of late, winning five of the past six meetings.

The Titans defense is a pass funnel, and it's going to be tough to run on them, especially with Taylor out. But Tennessee ranks 30th in Pass Defense DVOA and bleeds huge production to opposing receivers. The Titans have allowed the fifth-most WR receptions, and opposing WR1s have at least six catches in eight of 11 Tennessee games (73%) this season.

Pittman needs one more than that to go over this line, but that shouldn't be a problem considering he's had at least eight catches in eight of 11 games. He's clearly the go-to guy for Gardner Minshew, and there's little reason to expect his receptions to disappear against an opponent that prefers it that way. Pittman already has seven games with at least 11 targets.

I really like how this matchup shapes up for the Titans.

Tennessee is outstanding at stopping the run and with Taylor out, it will be up to Gardner Minshew to beat this secondary. On the other side, Indianapolis's run defense has cratered and is last in the NFL over the past five weeks. The Colts are also still missing run-stuffing DT Grover Stewart, so that sets up well for a big Derrick Henry game.

It's shocking how much better the Titans have been at home. Tennessee has yet to win a game away from Nissan Stadium, and the Titans rank 27th on offense and 30th on defense by DVOA on the road. But they rank seventh on defense and 14th on offense at home, and are also 4-0 in Tennessee.

I like both angles here, so I'm betting them both, though separately and not as a SGP since they're not necessarily correlated.

I'll play Titans +1.5 at -110 rather than the +100 moneyline. I don't mind the moneyline on Vrabel as a home 'dog if necessary, but that extra 10 cents is worth the price since it buys us a win in a potential one-point Titans loss, which could be key considering how weird and close both these teams tend to play.

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Falcons vs Jets Odds, Picks

• Desmond Ridder continues to be awesome at home and struggle on the road. Ridder is 2-4 ATS on the road for his career and 1-5 SU.
• Tim Boyle gets another start for the Jets at QB after a horrendous showing on Black Friday. The Jets rank last in the league both running and passing by DVOA over the past five weeks, but what happens when a movable object meets a stoppable force? The Falcons' defense ranks second to last in DVOA over the same span, including 30th in pass defense.

Again, it's Desmond Ridder and Tim Boyle. And before you get too overconfident in Ridder after that Saints win, remember that New Orleans settled for five field goals and that it still took a red-zone pick six that swung a nine-point game by 10 points. Ridder didn't look much better out of the bye than he did earlier this season, and now he has to try and score points on the road against the Jets defense?

Every single point will be at a premium here, and as low as that total is, these ugly unders continue to cash. Unders at 37 or below are 27-6-1 (82%) since November 2019, and unders at 38 or below are 15-3-1 (83%) this season. Unders at 35.5 or below are 8-1 over the past two seasons, and in only one of those games has even one team scored 20 points. You know this will be ugly, so you might as well bet it.

Atlanta's offense hasn't been good, and there's little reason to believe Ridder can lead this team on long scoring drives without the Jets baiting him into mistakes. There's only one definitely good unit on the field Sunday, and that's the Jets' defense, playing at home and given a field goal.

I'm not even positive the Falcons are better than the Jets, and this line implies Atlanta would be favored by five or six on a neutral field? Against the Jets elite defense? I don't see it. New York's top-five Run Stop Win Rate can slow the Falcons' rushing attack, and I think the Jets can win outright in an ugly one.

Underdogs that have scored 16 points or less in three straight — like the Jets — cover 64% of the time, while underdogs of four or less in games with totals below 42 are 61% ATS. Be sure to grab +3 if you can, but otherwise shop around for the best number. Every single point will be precious here, and three of Atlanta's wins have come by one, two and three points.

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Chargers vs Patriots Odds, Picks

• Mac Jones has officially been benched, and the Patriots announced they'll start Bailey Zappe at QB. Zappe is 2-0 both SU and ATS as an NFL starter with impressive 29-0 and 38-15 wins last October. There will reportedly be a package of plays for QB/weapon Malik Cunningham.
• The injury report for this game is long and troubling. Hope you don't like talented receivers. Keenan Allen is questionable with a quad injury that will likely hamper him if he does suit up, while Mike Williams and Josh Palmer are also out and TE Gerald Everett is questionable, leaving the Chargers perilously thin on receiving options. The Patriots are also missing WR1 Demario Douglas and are already without Kendrick Bourne. Both sides could also be without a tackle, with Pats LT Trent Brown and Chargers RT Trey Pipkins both questionable. Whew.
• Will whichever coach loses this game still have his job on Monday afternoon?
• This game is gross.

This should be an easy one for the Chargers against a Patriots team that seems content losing, but nothing's ever easy for this team, and the one clear strength, the passing game, is muted by all the injuries. That could make scoring tough to come by, and so could Bill Belichick as he slogs things up like usual.

The Patriots are coming off consecutive 10-6 and 10-7 losses. That offense isn't good enough to hurt even this terrible Chargers D, and it's not like LA can run on the Pats, since the team's 30.5% Success Rate rushing the football ranks fifth worst among all teams since 2018, per Tru Media Sports.

This thing is ugly, and even if Justin Herbert does find some success passing, this might still go under at say 31-6 if the Pats offense lays another egg. Both teams are 8-3 to the under this season, and the line dropping here actually shows some value on the under, since totals between 39 and 45 that have dropped a point or more are 56% to the under since 2017 and 64% this season.

The Chargers defense is awful, and the run defense has really never been good under Brandon Staley, almost by design. In an ugly game missing blockers and receivers, this thing might just be a fight in the trenches. That should mean plenty of work for Stevenson, especially with Ezekiel Elliott questionable.

These are two of the five worst defenses in the league against RBs receiving by DVOA, so we'll probably get a lot of dump-offs to the backs. Stevenson's pass catching numbers are up, and he's gone over this combo line in three straight games on just rushing yards alone. He's also over this line in all four games in which Zappe has taken at least half the snaps.

I won't lie, I almost talked myself into both of those angles, but I just don't want to invest anything in this game. Not my time, not my money, not my mental energy. Can we just call it a tie and skip the whole thing?

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Cardinals vs Steelers Odds, Picks

• Remember Arizona's promising start? That feels so long ago. The Cardinals' defense has been terrible all season and ranks bottom three by DVOA against both the run and the pass. The offense also ranks bottom three on the road.
• The Steelers rank No. 1 in our Luck Rankings, having benefited from any number of lucky bounces all season to get to 7-4.
• Pittsburgh's offense saw a nice bump in its first game without now-fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, hitting 400 yards of offense for the first time since the game before Canada's reign. The Steelers' offense has improved significantly in recent weeks. Both the offense and defense rank in the top quarter of the league by DVOA over the past five weeks, with both sides top three in the run game.

Pittsburgh's pass defense has been beatable. Also, Marquise Brown's production is much more reliable now that Kyler Murray has returned. Brown had perhaps his best game of the season last week with six catches for 88 yards on a season-high 12 targets.

More importantly, Brown was the clear go-to guy for Murray last season. Brown averaged over seven catches a game for 80.8 YPG and found the endzone three times in six games, one of the best stretches of his career. Arizona will need to pass with Pittsburgh's run defense being so stout, and this line should rise for Brown as he settles in again with Murray.

NOTE: Marquise Brown is questionable with a heel injury but expected to play. Be sure to check his status and line before making a decision Sunday.

I like Pittsburgh in this game, but the line is a touch high since it rose from Steelers -3 to -5.5, so I'm playing Najee Harris as a proxy for a Steelers win.

Like it or not, Harris is still the lead back in this offense, not Jaylen Warren. Harris has had more carries than Warren in every single game this season, including last week. Arizona allows the second-most fantasy points to RBs, with the opposing lead back averaging 21 carries for 97 yards.

Harris has averaged just under 10 carries for 38 rushing yards in the Steelers' four losses, going under this line in all but one. However, in the seven wins, he's averaged almost 15 carries for 64 yards. He's over this mark in five of those seven wins, with the two unders by a combined 12 yards against elite the Baltimore and Cleveland defenses. I'm treating this as a sneaky way to play a juiced Pittsburgh moneyline.

I think these Steelers are underrated and expect them to take care of the Cardinals without much issue. I don't hate just playing Pittsburgh outright or waiting to bet them live or in the second half since the Steelers often start slow, but I'll play this Harris rushing over as a proxy for a Steelers win. I don't mind adding in Pittsburgh moneyline for a SGP, bumping the line from something like -115 to +125.

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Games Completed/In Progress

Dolphins vs Commanders Odds, Picks

• If you like big plays and long touchdowns, you could be in for a treat. Miami has scored the most touchdowns in the NFL from outside the red zone (15) and Washington's defense has allowed the most TDs from outside the red zone (16), dwarfing the next closest defense with 10.
• Both defenses rank bottom four in the first half by DVOA, and Miami's defense has been far worse on the road than at home. But the Commanders just fired defensive coordinator Jack del Rio and could get a bounce there, and Miami's defense has been trending up over the past month and is performing like a top 10 unit with Jalen Ramsey back.

Miami's offense actually hasn't been as good after that torrid start, but this could be the perfect get-right spot.

Not that Tyreek Hill really needs a get-right spot. He's been shredding opponents all season, is still on pace to break the all-time receiving record and is producing so well that his traditional over/under is at a ridiculous 97.5 yards this week. I'm not sure books have caught up to Hill's spike in TDs, though. He leads the league in that category this year with at least one score in nine of 11 games (82%), including all eight Miami wins. At -125, we're getting 55.6% implied instead, leaving huge value.

If you've got bet365, you should also nibble 150+ receiving yards at +825. That's an implied 10.8% hit rate for a guy who has already had 146+ yards in five games this season and is playing the worst pass defense in the league.

Not one person in the world wants to bet on Washington's defense against Mike McDaniel's offense, but that's how you know there's value here. Miami's offense hasn't been as hot as it was early in the season, and Washington can only go up without del Rio. And let's be honest, Washington probably isn't going to score a ton against a top-10 pass rush and an improving Dolphins' defense.

Games featuring home underdogs have gone under 62% of the time over the past three seasons, but this isn't just any home 'dog. Since 2013, in games with a home 'dog of at least a touchdown and a total of 48 or more, the under is a wild 51-19-1, hitting 72.9% of the time. Close your eyes, trust the numbers, and bet the under.

You absolutely want some version of Miami passing overs in this one, and rather than get cute with Tua Tagovailoa or Jaylen Waddle or some other option, why not just go with the best offensive weapon in football? Washington's defense is so terrible defending the pass that Hill legitimately has NFL-record type upside in this game if Miami actually has to try long enough.

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