49ers vs Vikings PrizePicks Play for Christian McCaffrey, Kirk Cousins

We're going below two totals on PrizePicks tonight for 49ers vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football. Use the PrizePicks Quickslips below to be directed straight to the app so you can make your pick.

We’re trusting Chris Raybon’s projections here, which have CMC pegged for 68 rushing yards against the Vikings. We’re also trusting one of the NFL’s best running backs, which is an easy sell.

McCaffrey ran for more than 61.5 yards in the 49ers’ first four games of the season but hasn’t in either of the last two. One of those two was a blowout win over the Cowboys that saw Brock Purdy thrive, then he got hurt last week against the Browns.

This pick is assuming McCaffrey is healthy, which seems reasonable. Also, if he’s going to be active, we can safely assume he’s going to be given a normal workload. In the five games McCaffrey has finished this season, he has gotten at least 18 carries.

Minnesota has a middling rush defense that entered Week 7 ranked 16th in DVOA, but we could see an emphasis on the ground game since the 49ers are on the road and without Deebo Samuel in the passing game.

Cousins has attempted more than 36.5 passes four times and less than that total twice. The four times he’s exceeded 36.5 were in Minnesota’s four losses, and the two where he attempted fewer were in wins.

The times Cousins exceeded 36.5 weren’t particularly close: 44, 44, 50 and 47 against the Buccaneers, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. Three of those games were also at home, where the Vikings are playing tonight.

All four of those games were also quite close. The Vikings, after being the NFL’s luckiest team last season, lost all of those games by seven or fewer points.

So, what does that tell us? Well, if the game is close, then we can expect Minnesota to focus on its passing attack given how inefficient the run game has been. The Vikings entered Week 7 ranked 24th in Rush DVOA with Alexander Mattison averaging 3.9 yards per carry.

Raybon has Cousins projected for 38.4 pass attempts, so I feel comfortable expecting him to be active in the passing game, even without Justin Jefferson.