Your Ultimate Week 4 AAF Betting Guide: Picks, Analysis, More For All 4 Games
Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Orlando WR Charles Johnson, Arizona RB Jhurell Pressley
- Ian Hartitz previews all four games in our Week 4 AAF betting guide, including Saturday's Orlando-Salt Lake and Sunday's Atlanta-Arizona matchups.
- Get the latest betting market information, analysis of key matchups, fantasy advice, picks for each game and more.
It’s time for Week 4 in the Alliance of American Football league. Each glorious weekend of action has gifted us at least one viral moment so far, including:
- Week 1: San Diego quarterback Mike Bercovici got beheaded.
- Week 2: Backup San Diego quarterback Philip Nelson produced a pass so absurd that Patrick Mahomes was literally proud.
- Week 3: The early contender for throw-and-catch of the year emerged.
For now, we’ll focus on the on-field product in an attempt to find some value with the odds. What follows is a preview of all four games featuring betting odds, trends, key matchups, injuries, daily fantasy edge and betting pick(s).
And if that’s not enough, we also have this lineup of comprehensive coverage:
- Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Week 4 Lines to Act On
- Week 4 AAF Schedule, Odds: Over/Unders Continue to Fall
- Ranking Every AAF Team’s QBs, Backfields and Receiving Corps
- AAF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 4
Now let’s dig into this weekend’s games.
Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express
- Spread: San Diego -6.5
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: B/R Live
Betting market: There’s been movement on the spread and the over/under, as San Diego opened as a -5.5 favorite with a total of 41 points.
The public apparently doesn’t think Zach Mettenberger will prove to be much of an upgrade over whatever the hell the Christian Hackenberg experience was supposed to be.
Week 3 Takeaways
San Diego’s 31-11 Win Over San Antonio
- Philip Nelson is entrenched as the Fleet’s starting quarterback and had his finest performance in last week’s win. He rebounded brilliantly after throwing an interception on the game’s first play to complete 17-of-25 passes (68%) for 193 yards (7.7 yard per attempt) and a pair of touchdowns.
- San Diego was the only team to utilize only two running backs in Week 3. Terrell Watson and Ja’Quan Gardner racked up double-digit touches for the second time in as many weeks, though Watson (60% snaps) was the offense’s preferred goal-line and two-point conversion back over Gardner (40%).
- Nelson Spruce has emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for the Fleet. Brian Brown and tight end Gavin Escobar were the only other receivers to play at least 65% of the offense’s snaps in Week 3, as Francis Owusu and Dontez Ford played just 22% and 40% of the offense’s snaps, respectively. Spruce is one of only seven receivers with at least 25% of his team’s air yard market share (per NoExtraPoints.com).
Memphis’ 21-17 Loss to Orlando
- Zac Stacy keeps racking up touches despite Sherman Badie and Terrence Magee continuing to stay involved. Overall, Stacy (49% snaps) was one of only two lead backs who failed to play at least half of their offense’s snaps in Week 3. Still, his 50 touches are more than any AAF player outside of Birmingham can attest to having through three weeks.
- Reece Horn and Gerrard Sheppard led the way by playing 97% and 72% of the offense’s snaps, respectively. Alton Howard and Devin Lucien played just 56% and 38% of the offense’s snaps, while Dontez Byrd and tight end Brandon Barnes posted respective snap rates of 23% and 66%.
- Mettenberger had only 12 pass attempts, but he managed to throw more touchdowns (2) than Hackenberg managed in 63 attempts (0). The former LSU quarterback’s ability to consistently dice up the Orlando defense downfield was particularly impressive.
Which team is healthier? Memphis
Both teams are in solid shape after three weeks of action.
San Diego’s only concerns are difference-making linebacker A.J. Tarpley (back), stud defensive end Damontre Moore (knee) and cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah (wrist), who each failed to practice to start the week.
Memphis’ only players to not practice in full to start the week was Stacy (illness), defensive tackle Julius Warmsley (ankle) and swing tackle Christian Morris (knee). It would be a surprise if Stacy is ultimately unable to suit up.
Key matchup: Memphis’ Offensive Line vs. San Diego’s Pass Rush
Mettenberger was pressured on 6-of-13 (46%) dropbacks during his season debut. This isn’t exactly unusual for the Express, as they’re tied with the Iron for the highest pressure rate allowed on offense (38.7%) after three weeks.