Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Week 4 Lines to Act on Before the Market Catches Up

Mar 02, 2019 09:25 AM EST
Credit:

Courtesy of @aafAPOLLOS/Twitter. Pictured: Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert

  • Sean Koerner leverages his AAF Power Ratings to find the best betting values for Week 4.
  • With lines expected to move, there are a few spreads and totals to act on before the market adjusts.

And we’re on to Week 4 of the Alliance of American Football.

To identify any potential “value” in this week’s lines, I created our third set of power ratings for all eight AAF teams. We’ll use those to estimate a line for each matchup and make some picks below.

Here’s what they are as of writing on Thursday:

AAF WEEK 4 POWER RATINGS

San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express

  • Spread: San Diego -6
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

I had this line at Memphis +2.5, so +6 looks like a must-bet.

San Diego is without a doubt the worst 2-1 team in the league, and I think that might have inflated the Fleet’s line a bit. They’ve established themselves as a “middle of the pack” team more than anything.

Mike Martz quickly adjusted to a run-heavy approach the past two games by leaning on running backs Ja’Quan Gardner and Terrell Watson, and it has paid off with two straight wins.

Meanwhile, the Express finally benched Christian Hackenberg for Zach Mettenberger, who threw for two touchdowns in relief and managed to claw Memphis back to only lose by four in Orlando. While that could end up being the best half of football we’ll get from Mettenberger all season, it’s safe to say he’s an upgrade at the most critical position.

Couple that quarterback change with emerging No. 2 running back Sherman Badie forming a nice backfield committee with Zac Stacy, and we see a Memphis team that’s on the rise.

We’ll want to cash in on this before the market adjusts. Give me Memphis +6.

The total is spot on here. I had it at 40.4, so I’d pass on this matchup unless we see the line shift three points in either direction and go against the line move.

THE PICK: Memphis +6

Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions

  • Spread: Orlando -4
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: NFL Network