The Atlanta Falcons (3-2) and San Francisco 49ers (4-2) face off in the Week 7 edition of Sunday Night Football on October 19. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. EDT from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The 49ers are favored by -2 on the spread over the Falcons (49ers -2), with the over/under set at 47 total points. San Francisco is a -135 moneyline favorite to win outright; Atlanta is +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Falcons vs 49ers predictions.
Falcons vs 49ers Prediction
- Falcons vs 49ers pick: 49ers Moneyline (-135; Play to -175)
My Falcons vs 49ers best bet is on the Niners moneyline. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs 49ers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Falcons vs 49ers Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: All data is via PFF unless otherwise noted.
Niners backup quarterback Mac Jones has been schemed up by Kyle Shanahan to a 3-1 record and a league-leading 313.0 passing yards per game while averaging only a half-yard per attempt less than starter Brock Purdy (8.0).
Shanahan uses motion at the highest rate among all NFL pass offenses (71.0%), which has improved Jones' ability to identify coverage pre-snap and has helped him get the ball out on time to the right receiver, ranking fifth in first-read target rate (56.0%) and third in check-down rate (17.6%) among qualified passers.
The key difference between Purdy and Jones to this point?
Purdy is No. 1 in explosive pass rate (15.1%), Jones is 30th (6.1%). Purdy's rate of deep attempts (13.7%) is nearly double that of Jones (7.7%), which makes Jones almost wholly reliant on yards after the catch from his receivers for explosives.
That is harder to do against man-coverage defenses like the Falcons', who play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (51.0%) and rank third in explosive pass rate allowed (6.2%), including first against motion (1.5%).
The Falcons will be the first opponent the 49ers have faced that currently sits in the top half of the league in man-coverage rate. Purdy is seventh (0.335) in EPA/DB versus man coverage (0.355). Jones is 30th (-0.219).
The 49ers will also be without Ricky Pearsall (knee). Despite missing two games, Pearsall has a 45% share of the team's deep targets, and more deep catches (5) and yards (160) than the rest of the team combined (4-99).
Atlanta also seemingly has the edge on the other side of the ball as a run-first team facing a 49ers defense missing two of the league's best players from its front seven in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
The Falcons have averaged 29 points and 439 yards of total offense over their past two games, while the 49ers have allowed 26.5 points and 404 total yards on defense over the past two weeks.
Atlanta isn't giving up explosive passes, and San Francisco is missing its QB1 and WR1 responsible for all of theirs.
However, what the on-paper matchup ignores:
- Comparing Jones to Purdy sells Jones and the entire 49ers offense short. Despite Purdy missing four games, Kittle missing five, and their intended top-four at WR (Brandon Aiyuk–Jauan Jennings-Ricky Pearsall-Demarcus Robinson) combining to miss 13 of a possible 24, the 49ers rank fifth in pass success rate (58.0%), 13th in pass EPA/pass (0.121), and 10th in EPA/pass adjusted for turnover luck. In Purdy, the 49ers are without a QB1 who ranks No. 1 of 40 in pass success rate (58.8%) among QBs with a minimum of 50 plays, but they still have a QB who ranks No. 8 (53.3%).
- Contrary to what has played out up to this point, the 49ers should see an uptick in explosive passing. At the same time, the Falcons defense is due for downward regression in explosives and overall efficiency. Man-heavy defenses tend to work because it funnels the action towards low-percentage downfield WR targets, often with safety help over the top, since most backs and tight ends can't beat single coverage consistently. This describes the Falcons to a T — they've allowed the second- and sixth-lowest target shares to TEs and RBs, respectively, but the highest target share to WRs. And unlike the typical defense that limits explosives (high rate of two-high coverage, low aDOT allowed), the Falcons lead the league in both single-high coverage rate (64.6%) and aDOT (9.9). The 49ers have had George Kittle for only one game and 21 snaps — zero of which came with Jones. If Kittle suits up, San Francisco will have the ideal RB-TE duo to beat the Falcons' scheme through the air (and their best group of starting pass-catchers since Week 1).
- If the Falcons decide to switch it up, they risk further compromising a run defense that ranks 19th in EPA per rush (-0.073) and 30th in rush success rate (46.7%) despite stacking the box at the 7th-highest clip (50.8%). Every other run defense the 49ers have faced has ranked 14th or higher in rush success rate, including four in the top seven (JAX 2, TB 4, SEA 6, LAR 7). Atlanta has been getting by against the run by allowing low volume due to game script reasons.
- Due to the aforementioned injuries and struggles, the 49ers have more incentive to switch their approach on defense, which could play into their hands. The 49ers are typically one of the zone-heaviest defenses in the league, but defensive coordinator Robert Saleh showed he was open to change by skewing man-heavy last week, though to no avail. One area the 49ers could switch up is stacking the box. They have done so at the league's lowest rate (6.3%), but allow just 3.0 YPC when doing so, seventh-best. Putting the ball in Michael Penix Jr.'s hands against a banged-up defensive line is no sure thing on the road.
- Penix at home: 65.4% completion rate, 8.4 YPA, 95.2 rating
- Penix on the road: 54.2% completions, 5.8 YPA, 65.1 rating
Ray-Ray McCloud has been benched and Darnell Mooney has been hurt, so Penix enters the game having not worked much with two of his starting pass-catchers recently.
Last week, he targeted Drake London and Bijan Robinson on 24 of his 31 aimed attempts, which defenses will make him pay for over the long term.
Falcons vs 49ers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The public is on the Falcons and the under in this game, while we've tracked sharp action on the 49ers and the over (which is a strong Luck Rankings over).
The heavier one-sided action has been on the Falcons, but I prefer the 49ers as a side for my best bet or a standalone bet because the over has lost much of its value since opening at 44.5 last week.
With the total moving up three points already and the spread holding steady, I think the most likely scenario in this spot is that the 49ers are being underrated offensively while the Falcons are being overrated offensively.
The over (and under) is better for correlated same-game parlays, since we know the specific factors that would drive the total each way, such as Penix bombing on the road, long high success low-explosive drives, etc., for the under; or big days from Christian McCaffrey/Greg Kittle, more explosives for Jones/49ers receivers, more aggressive SF defense allowing big plays downfield, etc., for the over.
Pick: 49ers -135 ML (bet365 | Play to -175)
Favorite Parlay: +206 (DraftKings)
- SF ML -135: San Francisco is being underrated, especially if Kittle returns to action.
- Michael Penix Jr. Under 231.5 Pass + Rush Yards (-114): Penix averages 180.3 yards in three career road games with a high of 226, and the 49ers have allowed 221 or less in three of four wins.
Spread
I like the 49ers as a side here, but prefer the moneyline at current prices.
Moneyline
My Falcons vs. 49ers betting prediction is on San Francisco moneyline.
Over/Under
I lean over, as I expect this game to feature an uptick in passing volume and efficiency for at least one of the teams (with the 49ers being more likely).
Even with Purdy and Pearsall out, the 49ers are in a better position to play from behind than they have been at any point under Jones, who they've gone mostly pass-heavy with. I think the Falcons are in bigger trouble if the actual total skews low.
