Austin Ekeler Player Props: Expert Pick for Chargers vs 49ers

Austin Ekeler Receptions

We’ve got a fun inter-conference matchup for Sunday Night Football as the Chargers travel up the California coast to face the 49ers. With an offense ravaged by injuries to its skill-position players, I’m honing in on Austin Ekeler’s receptions prop.

Ekeler has been on a tear this season as a receiver. He leads the Chargers in both targets (69) and receptions (60), functioning as Justin Herbert’s safety valve. He’s caught at least six passes in six of his eight games, including each of the last three.

Facing the 49ers, Ekeler should continue to see volume in the passing game. San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest target share to opposing running backs (22.7%).

Where San Francisco excels defensively is against the run, ranking fourth in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric. It also generates pressure on the quarterback at the fifth-highest rate, which should spell check down for Herbert.

The 49ers also deploy zone coverage on running backs at an above average rate. Ekeler is fifth in the NFL (amongst all pass-catchers) with 34 receptions against zone.

The Chargers enter this game as 7.5-point underdogs, and again without their top two receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams). I have Ekeler projected for another double-digit-target outing, which should lead to at least seven receptions.