Bears vs Chiefs Odds, Pick, Prediction | Can Patrick Mahomes Cover as Heavy Favorite?
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields (left) and Patrick Mahomes (right).
Bears vs Chiefs Odds NFL Week 3
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -750 |
Bears vs. Chiefs odds for thee Week 3 clash at Arrowhead Stadium show one of the largest spreads on the Sunday NFL slate, with Kansas City as 12.5-point favorites over Chicago across almost every sportsbook — DraftKings is the lone one with a -13.
Patrick Mahomes is 6-9 against the spread (ATS) in 15 career games when the Chiefs are favored by at least 10 points. But don’t let the past trends fool you — this is a mismatch that Justin Fields and the Bears — losers of 12 straight games dating back to last season — will not be able to overcome.
Let’s preview this potential rout between Chicago and Kansas City and make a Chiefs vs. Bears pick and prediction.
Dating back to last season, the Bears have lost 12 straight games, and they haven’t held a single opponent to 24 points or fewer during that span.
Through the first two weeks, their defense has surrendered 6.0 yards per play, which is 31st in the league. They've been around league average against the run, but rank 30th in pass defense DVOA despite taking on the likes of Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield — both quarterbacks averaged greater than nine yards per pass attempt against Chicago.
The task this week is even steeper. Not only do the Bears have a major step up in Patrick Mahomes, but they will also be facing the NFL's top offensive line, according to ESPN’s pass-block win rate. The Bears have very little chance of bothering the defending league MVP on Sunday.
The accolades of the Chiefs offense are common knowledge at this point, so let’s focus on Kansas City's emerging defense.
On the surface, a defense that ranks 19th in DVOA might not seem that impressive, but the Chiefs' performance the past two weeks — allowing a total of 23 points to the Lions and Jaguars — tell a different story. Kansas City held the Jacksonville to 4.2 yards per play, which was the worst Jags performance since Dec. 12, 2021 (a 20-0 shutout to the Titans).
Chris Jones returned from his holdout last week and hit the ground running with a near 70% pass-rush win rate on crucial third and fourth downs.
Bet Chicago vs. Kansas City at FanDuel
The ability of the Chiefs' defensive line to put pressure on Justin Fields could spell disaster for the Bears.
According to Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points, Fields has been sacked at one of the three highest rates for any quarterback since 1970, at approximately 13% in his career. In recent years, Football Outsiders had done research showing that, on average, any defense that created a sack on a given drive increased its chances of killing the drive by 70%.
The Bears were last in sack differential in 2022, and are 31st in that metric thus far in 2023 (Sharp Football). While I expect the Bears coaching staff to allow Fields to make plays with his feet more in this game, it still won’t be enough to guarantee points if the offense continues its propensity of negative plays.
Over their last 12 games (going back to last season), the Chiefs have shut down opposing passing attacks to the tune of 6.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks them tops in the NFL over that span.
Only Zach Wilson has a lower passer rating than Fields when teams choose not to blitz. The usual aggressiveness of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo may be tempered this week, as he knows spying Fields and limiting the potential of explosive runs is his main concern.
The Chiefs will dare Fields to beat them with his arm, and when they generate a sack or turnover, it’s more than likely their offense will respond by putting points on the scoreboard.
Bears vs. Chiefs
Betting Picks & Predictions
It is a mistake that the line of this game dipped below 13. If the Chiefs offense was humming coming into this matchup with this version of the Bears defense, the spread would be closer to 16.5 instead of 12.5.
Let’s capitalize on the discount gifted to us by the oddsmakers — the Chiefs should handle business rather easily on Sunday afternoon.
Don’t overthink it: The Bears have only covered the spread once in their last 10 games.
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