Bears vs Vikings Picks, Predictions: Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: Alexander Mattison (left) and Joshua Dobbs (right).
Bears vs Vikings Picks, Predictions
Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for this NFC North Monday Night Football game and find a Bears vs Vikings pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.
For now, let's get into my Bears vs Vikings predictions for Monday Night Football.
What You Need to Know:
- Money came in on the Bears, dropping the spread to the key number at Vikings -3. Money also came in early on the over, raising it from 44.5 on Sunday morning to as high as 46, then rebounded the other way with under money pushing the total all the way down to 43 as of Saturday afternoon. As of Sunday night, the over/under sits at 44 at most books.
- Minnesota's defense has been one of the surprise units of the season. The Vikings rank top 10 by DVOA against both the run and the pass and are also top-10 overall. But watch out for the improving Bears, whose run defense rates best in the league over the past six weeks.
- It looks like Justin Jefferson will sit out once again, with Minnesota's bye week up next promising two more weeks of rest with a day off here. T.J. Hockenson is banged up, but he is expected to play.
- If recent history is any indication, Monday Night Football should be close. The Vikings have won five straight in this divisional rivalry, but six of the past eight meetings were one-score affairs.
- Road Monday Night Football underdogs of three or less are 25-13-1 ATS (66%) in divisional games.
How to Bet the Bears: Justin Fields Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Fields returned in Week 11 after a month away and had a terrific game against the Lions, commanding the field with his arm and making good, smart decisions with the football. More importantly, he finally looked comfortable being himself, and that means making plays with his legs — he ran 18 times for 104 yards.
Fields had only four rushes in two of the September games and seemed uncertain of when to stay or when to go. He's at his best when he's a dual threat, and he appears to be back in that mode of attack again in Luke Getsy's offense. Fields has run for at least 46 yards in every game outside of those two, which puts him just a scamper away from this over.
With Brian Flores and Minnesota's pass rush bringing the heat, look for Fields to get out and find some yardage as a scrambler.
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How to Bet the Vikings: Minnesota to Win By 1-to-6 Points (+300, BetMGM)
Recent history says rivalry games tend to be close and goofy between these two teams, and the matchup on the field suggests the same. Chicago is playing much closer to average than bad football since its awful start, and the return of Fields only boosts the team further and gives the Bears the best player on the field.
It doesn't look like either team should be able to run much — other than Fields creating with his legs — so that likely puts it on the passing game.
That should be advantage Minnesota, if Joshua Dobbs can make a few plays to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson and if the Vikings defense keeps Fields in check — but this probably won't be comfortable.
My Bears vs Vikings Pick: Vikings by 1-to-6 (+300; BetMGM)
All but one Vikings game has finished within one score this season, and we saw it happen all last season, too.
Minnesota games just always find a way to be close and compelling at the end, and that's been the case in most recent Bears-Vikings rivalry games. Minnesota needs this win to stay on top of the NFC wild-card race, so count on the Vikings to find a way late, even if it's tight all the way.
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