NFL Week 12 Preview: Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

Sunday Night Football: Ravens vs Chargers Odds, Picks

• Both teams' pass catchers are badly compromised. Baltimore lost TE Mark Andrews early in its last game and he's effectively this team's WR1 and a huge loss over the middle as Lamar Jackson's security blanket. Both Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers are questionable at WR, though it appears both will attempt to play. The Chargers have already lost Mike Williams for the season and will list WR Jalen Guyton and TE Gerald Everett as questionable.
• Both teams could also be without their best blocker. The Chargers are still missing stud C Corey Linsley, while Ravens star T Ronnie Stanley is also listed as questionable.
• Todd Monken's offense is rolling. The Ravens have scored 31 points or more in five straight games. Teams that have scored 25+ in five straight are 73-101-8 ATS (42%) in their following game.
• The total for this game has skyrocketed all the way from 44.5 on Sunday to 48.5. That comes in stark contrast to the usual trends backing primetime unders (75% this season) and unders in games featuring home underdogs (63%).

There's no question about which unit is the weakest on the field Sunday night. It's the Chargers defense, and it's not close. Baltimore's defense has its flaws, but has been outstanding overall and should stymie LA's rushing attack and hold its own against Justin Herbert. But the Ravens' offense might do anything it wants against a Chargers defense that hasn't stopped anyone all season.

The Chargers rank in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA against both the run and the pass, and Baltimore is the No. 1 DVOA rushing attack — and lately, it hasn't even been close. Over the past six weeks, Baltimore's rushing DVOA metric is double No. 2 and quadruple No. 3. Whether it's Lamar Jackson's speed or Gus Edwards' power, the Ravens are built to run over, around, and through the Chargers.

For most teams, all those receiver injuries would be a major concern. For Baltimore, it might just push the Ravens even more toward what they do best — run the ball down opponents' throats. The Chargers are last in the league defensively by DVOA in the first half, so Baltimore has a great opportunity to get out early and play its game.

Just lean into the pain at this point, Chargers fans. There's little question this team is talented, but they just can't put games away or handle their business late. Blame Justin Herbert, blame the defense, blame Brandon Staley and the coaching staff — yeah, especially blame them — but this team just keeps playing close games and fails to slam the door in new and innovative ways every week.

All but one Chargers game this season has finished within seven points and 23 of their past 28 games (82%) have finished within one touchdown. As long as the Chargers don't let go of the rope entirely, this is a nice teaser option if you have something to pair it with. But if you're a masochist — and you're the Chargers fan, so you be the judge — why not just play this out the way you already know it's headed, with yet another close, heartbreaking loss?

On paper, this feels like a great spot to back a home team that's lost a lot of close, unlucky games with a great passing attack and a QB that can always get through the back door or pull out the win late. But LA has no home-field advantage and games aren't played on paper.

I love this matchup for the Ravens, and I have a really bad feeling about this one for the Chargers. I wonder if we might end up watching Brandon Staley's funeral live on Sunday Night Football.

How can I bet on Brandon Staley to get fired Monday morning?

How about a scenario where the Chargers totally let go of the rope, with Gus Edwards rumbling for a couple scores as Baltimore rips off multiple long, soul-sucking drives and runs Staley's defense right off the cliff for a big win? Baltimore has 14+ point wins against Houston, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle and Cincinnati. When this team is cooking, it can absolutely demolish opponents. Edwards has two scores in a 14+ win in two of the past three games. I'll nibble the Staley-fired-before-the-end-of-the-game blowout special at +1800.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Monday Night Football: Bears vs Vikings Odds, Picks

• Money has come in on the Bears, dropping the spread to the key number at Vikings -3. Money also came in early on the over, raising it from 44.5 on Sunday morning to as high as 46, then rebounded the other way with under money pushing the total all the way down to 43 as of Saturday afternoon, with bettors looking to cash in on yet another primetime under.
• Minnesota's defense has been one of the surprise units of the season. The Vikings rank top 10 by DVOA against both the run and the pass and are also top-10 overall. But watch out for the improving Bears defense, whose run defense rates best in the league over the past six weeks.
• It looks like Justin Jefferson will sit once again, with Minnesota's bye week up next promising two more weeks of rest with a day off here. T.J. Hockenson is banged up, but expected to play.
• If recent history is any indication, Monday night should be close. The Vikings have won five straight in this division rivalry, but six of the past eight meetings were one-score affairs.
• Road Monday Night Football underdogs of three or less are 25-13-1 ATS (66%) in division games.

Fields finally returned last week after a month away and had a terrific game against the Lions, commanding the field with his arm and making good, smart decisions with the football. More importantly, he finally looked comfortable being himself, and that means making plays with his legs too, where he ran 18 times for 104 yards.

Fields had only four rushes in two of the September games and seemed uncertain of when to stay or when to go. But he's at his best when he's a dual threat and he appears to be back in that mode of attack again in Luke Getsy's offense. He's run for at least 46 yards in every game outside of those two, which puts him just a scamper away from this over. With Brian Flores and Minnesota's pass rush bringing the heat all game, look for Fields to get out and find some yardage as a scrambler.

Recent history says rivalry games tend to be close and goofy between these two teams, and the matchup on the field suggests the same. Chicago is playing much closer to average than bad football since its awful start, and the return of Fields only boosts the team further and gives the Bears the best player on the field.

It doesn't look like either team should be able to run much, other than Fields creating some with his legs, so that likely puts it on the passing game. That should be advantage Minnesota, if Joshua Dobbs can make a few plays to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson and let the Vikings defense keep Fields in check, but this probably won't be comfortable.

All but one Vikings game has finished within one score this season, and we saw it happen all last season too. Minnesota games just always find a way to be close and compelling at the end, and that's been the case in most recent Bears-Vikings rivalry games too. Minnesota needs this win to stay on top of the NFC wild-card race, so count on the Vikings to find a way late, even if it's close all the way.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Week 12 Betting Card, Expert Picks

• Texans +2
• Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions
• Steelers -1.5
• Dalton Kincaid over 49.5 receiving yards
• Browns/Broncos under 37
• Kyren Williams Anytime TD +110
• Chiefs/Raiders under 43.5
• Chiefs to win by 1-to-6 points (+360)
• Ravens -3
• Gus Edwards 2 TDs & Ravens -13.5 SGP (+1800)
• Vikings to win by 1-to-6 points (+300)
• Jaylen Warren 75+ rushing yards (+360) | 100+ yards (+1075)
• Alvin Kamara 7+ receptions (+360) | 10+ receptions (+1550)

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Completed Games/Games in Progress

Jaguars vs Texans Odds, Picks

• This is the big one. This game means everything in the AFC South. A Houston win ties the Texans with the Jaguars in the standings, but completes the sweep and puts the Texans in first, while a Jaguars road win restores the expected order and gives Jacksonville a two-game cushion at the top.
• Houston has won 10 of the past 11 meetings between these division rivals, including a 37-17 drubbing in Jacksonville in September. Houston is 5-2 since, with the only two losses coming on the final play of the game.
• Both secondaries come in compromised. Jacksonville is missing its top corner, Tyson Campbell, while Houston is missing safety Jimmie Ward. Perhaps that's why the total has slowly crept up all week.

Houston's defense is trending up, especially against the run, but the pass defense is still beatable. That's especially true over the middle, by design, since Houston plays an umbrella zone designed to funnel passes toward the middle of the field. That should mean plenty of looks for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram as the onus will be on Trevor Lawrence and the passing game to move the ball.

Engram can be a security blanket for Lawrence. He's averaging nearly six catches per game on 7.4 targets with a career-high 80% catch rate thanks to a career-low YPC. Engram has at least four catches in every game this season, a remarkable floor for a tight end. That also puts him only one catch away from this over.

Houston has allowed 72 catches to opposing tight ends, the most in the league by a healthy margin. Seven opponent TEs have already gone over this line, including Engram himself with 7/67. That's one of four games Engram's had seven catches, a 40% hit rate versus the implied +290 on the escalator.

Check out the latest  bet365 bonus code offer before placing your bets on Jaguars vs Texans.

This is the one Texans fans have been waiting for ever since Houston started this magical run. The defense ranks top 12 by DVOA over the past five games and has been especially good against the run. Additionally, Houston is starting to run the ball with some success and now gets Dameon Pierce back. C.J. Stroud keeps answering every question, and he and DeMeco Ryans have this team cruising.

Houston is winning games in the trenches, and the Texans should do so again here. Jacksonville's offensive line has struggled all season and is bottom three in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate, and Houston's defensive line ranks top two in Pass Rush and Run Stop Win Rates. Will Anderson is quietly making a Defensive Rookie of the Year Award push (+1500, if you're so inclined), and the Texans' offensive line is finally healthy and coming together.

Jacksonville's defense was exposed by San Francisco a week ago, and by Stroud and these Texans earlier this season. Stroud has consistently been great picking apart zones when he gets time, and he looks poised for another big game. If Houston gets the best of Jacksonville's defense again, there's little reason to believe the Jaguars can keep up.

Did you expect anything else from the season's first resident of Texans Island? I've been waiting for this one and regular readers know I've been backing Houston all season. This is a game the Texans need to have, and the matchup tilts in Houston's favor. This is a great spot to play Houston in the division too if you believe (+240, Caesars).

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Saints vs Falcons Odds, Picks

• Both teams are coming off a bye for this huge NFC South clash, with the winner moving into first place in the division and another meeting coming in a month. The Saints have won nine of the past 11 meetings, though four of the past five were one-score affairs.
• Desmond Ridder has been reinstalled at quarterback for the Falcons after a brief spell on the sidelines, and it looks like Derek Carr is safely out of concussion protocol and good to go. That could make for a tricky game with real questions for both quarterbacks.
• The Saints will be without two key players, WR Michael Thomas and CB Marshon Lattimore. Thomas is absent after a relatively healthy season (for once) and Lattimore's absence leaves a serious hole in what was otherwise the best unit on the field, the Saints' pass defense.

If the Saints' pass defense is the best unit on the field, Atlanta's pass defense might be the weakest. The Falcons ranks 30th against the pass by DVOA and even worse (31st) against opposing running back pass catchers. Alvin Kamara is only six catches off the team lead, even after missing the first three games of the season, and Thomas's absence only leaves more balls for Carr to check down to Kamara.

Like it or not, those check downs are coming because Carr's timing has been unsteady and the offensive line isn't trustworthy. Kamara has three games with four or fewer catches, but at least seven in the other four, including games of 12 and 13 receptions. When the catches are there, they tend to pile up in a hurry. Skip the median outcome and go for the extremes, all the better if the Saints are trailing on the road and need to go hurry up and induce check down city even more so.

Are we sure the Saints are better? Neither team has played particularly well, but Ridder has quietly shown some signs of life in recent appearances and the team seems confident in his ability. Atlanta has a definite health advantage and is rested and playing at home in a must-win game.

When in doubt, bet against Dennis Allen and Derek Carr as favorites. Allen is 5-15-1 ATS as a favorite (25%), including 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite. Carr is 18-36-1 ATS as a favorite (33%) and has lost 14 of his past 23 such opportunities outright. Atlanta is an ugly 2-8 ATS this season, but home underdogs with an ATS rate that low have covered 66% of the time in Week 6 or later.

All of those fancy stats suggest the same thing: there's some value on the home underdog. Take the +1.5 and skip the moneyline since New Orleans has two wins by a single point in the past two seasons, one against the Falcons.

I lean Atlanta in this matchup, but am already pretty invested with Falcons futures. If you like Atlanta here and don't mind waiting for your payout, betting the Falcons at +290 to win the NFC South (DraftKings) is probably the smarter play since Atlanta will lead the division with a win and give you great options going forward.

For just this game, I'll sprinkle a small bet on Kamara's receptions. The number feels too long considering his production this season, and a Falcons winning game script only helps the angle since it means New Orleans will be playing from behind and dropping off passes to Kamara. He has games with seven, eight and 15 catches against the Falcons in his career.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Steelers vs Bengals Odds, Picks

• The Bengals come in wounded despite the post-Thursday mini bye. Joe Burrow is out for the season, which means Jake Browning will make his first NFL start at QB. He'll do so without WR Tee Higgins, and Cincinnati will also be without Sam Hubbard and Cam Taylor-Britt on defense. Pittsburgh is missing both starting safeties, but is far healthier overall.
• Steelers fans, rejoice: Matt Canada is gone! Pittsburgh fired one of its coordinators or head coaches during the season for the first time since 1941. Pittsburgh's RBs coach takes over as interim offensive coordinator, while QBs coach Mike Sullivan will call plays. Sullivan has vowed to cut horizontal play calls and empower Steelers RBs to carry the offense and open up the play-action game, an area where Kenny Pickett has been particularly successful when given the opportunity.

Teams often get a dead-cat bounce after firing a coach, so maybe the Steelers offense will get a boost post-Canada. A game plan designed by the RBs coach might come at the perfect time too. Pittsburgh's rushing attack has quietly exploded to No. 3 DVOA over the past month since rookie Broderick Jones took over at right tackle, and Cincinnati's run defense ranks 30th for the season.

Jaylen Warren has run for 318 yards over the past three weeks and could be in for another big game. He's +360 (bet365) to run for at least 75 yards and +1075 to hit 100, something he's done each of the past two games. There's a real chance Pittsburgh runs all over this beaten-down Bengals defense, and Cincinnati could lose the trenches on the other side as its porous pass blocking could struggle against Pittsburgh's elite pass rushers.

The Steelers pass defense is very good, even without Minkah Fitzpatrick, and this could be a very difficult first start for Browning. We saw the Bengals struggle to even score a field goal with a hampered Burrow earlier this season. Pittsburgh has won 12 of 16 against Cincinnati and Tomlin is 21-11 ATS (66%) against the Bengals over his career.

This total plummeted once Burrow went out, but if the Bengals are going to hang with Browning, it'll likely be because the defense stood up and kept the game close. Pittsburgh games are 8-2 to the under this season, and Mike Tomlin is 78-54-1 to the under for his career (59%) in road games, the most profitable coach in our Bet Labs system.

It feels gross betting an under this low, but recent history says it's also profitable. Games with a total at 38 or below this season are 12-2-1 to the under (86%), and games at 38 or below that dropped over four points are 30-12-2 to the under historically (71%). Games are 37 or below are 24-6-1 to the under (80%) the past four calendar years, and seven of the past games at 35.5 or below have cashed the under, with only one of those games seeing either team crack 20 points. History says we're going under.

The Steelers are my favorite side of the weekend, even as road favorites. Kenny Pickett is 6-2 ATS as a favorite (75%), so it hasn't happened often, but when it does, it's because Pittsburgh is clearly the better team and has taken care of business.

That's my expectation here, a get-right game for a team relieved to move on from Matt Canada. I expect the Steelers to dominate on the ground, so I'm inclined to sprinkle those Warren rushing overs as an escalator.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Buccaneers vs Colts Odds, Picks

• The Bucs rank 19th in DVOA. The Colts are 17th. The defenses rank 12th and 13th. The special teams rank 23rd and 22nd. The passing offenses rank 17th and 16th. The Colts can't stop the run, but the Bucs can't run. Tampa Bay can stop the run, negating the one thing Indianapolis does well. These teams are evenly matched, as evidenced by the home Colts being favored by -2.5, implying close to a coin flip on a neutral field.
• The Colts are the healthier team coming in. They'll be without C Ryan Kelly, but the Bucs defense is compromised without CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David, and possibly LB Devin White. RB Rachaad White may also sit.

Normally, we've been successfully backing Mike Evans in this space, but this looks like a week to pivot to Chris Godwin. The Colts rank bottom five against opposing WR2s by DVOA, and their young secondary has been up and down all season.

Godwin has at least five catches in all but three games. He's had at least 51 yards in seven of 10 games and has gone over this line in five of the past seven, though often not by much. You might prefer to go for a SGP of five catches and 50+ yards, something he's done six times already, or just stick with the slightly higher yardage total. It'll probably be close either way.

The Bucs rank last against opposing WR3s by DVOA, allowing 54.3 YPG to the forgotten guys down the depth chart. Tampa Bay has allowed 1,989 yards to opposing WRs, third most in the NFL. In just the past month, the Bucs have conceded 6/153/1 to Houston's Noah Brown, 6/92 to Buffalo's Khalil Shakir, and 3/61 to Tennessee's Kyle Philips.

Notice how all those players needed a team name to identify them? That's because they're WR3s. The hard part is figuring out who Indy's WR3 is, but I think it's Isaiah McKenzie. He's suddenly played 53 snaps the past two games with a 45% snap count and had six catches across the two games for 45 yards. If you can find a McKenzie line, he should be a sneaky over.

I'll stay away with such evenly matched teams, but I'll be watching for futures. It may not seem like this game matters much, but both teams are just a game out of the playoffs. The winner still has plenty of work to do, but the loser falls to the brink of elimination.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Panthers vs Titans Odds, Picks

• If you're looking for good offensive line play, you won't find it here. These are two of the lowest-rated blocking units in the league, and it's no coincidence that both offenses have struggled.
• If you're looking for a side, a handful of trends suggest slight value on Carolina as an underdog of three-to-seven points on a three-game ATS losing streak (58% ATS), as a short underdog in a game with a total under 42 (62% ATS), and as a 'dog that's scored 16 or less in three straight (67% ATS).

We've made a lot of money betting Thielen receptions overs this season, so why stop now? Carolina's go-to guy is averaging 7.6 catches a game and has at least six receptions in all but two games. He doesn't always find the endzone, now four games running without, and it's not always pretty, but the catches are there.

Tennessee is a terrific run defense and a pass funnel, pushing teams to pass to beat them, so it will be up to Bryce Young and Thielen. The Titans rank second to last in DVOA to opposing WR1s and have allowed 10 opponent WRs to rack up at least six catches. Thielen should get plenty of looks, but I'll stay away from an aggressive escalator since he hasn't topped eight in a month.

Before wagering on Panthers vs Titans, unlock bonus bets using Action’s BetRivers promo code.

It feels like both defenses are at an advantage. Carolina's defense has trended up over the past month, and Tennessee's defense has been far better at home this season, top five by DVOA versus bottom five on the road. The Titans are weirdly 3-0 SU at home, but winless away from Tennessee, and the defense has been a big reason why.

Both defenses have also been far better in the first half. Carolina ranks in the top quarter of the league by first-half DVOA defensively, but is last in the second half, and the Titans are No. 4 in the first half themselves. Expect a slow game starting out with not much on the line other than rookie QB development, so grab the first half under.

This game doesn't mean much to either team, and thus it doesn't mean a whole lot to me either.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Patriots vs Giants Odds, Picks

• It's a double Super Bowl rematch from two of the most exciting, biggest Super Bowl upsets of the century! It's the Belichick Bowl, pitting a legendary coach against the team where it all began for him! It's Giants-Patriots on CBS!!
• It's Tommy DeVito and Mac Jones in a game neither fan base wants to win, specifically so their team will stay on track to get a high enough draft pick to replace them, Giants-Patriots on CBS!!

You know how dominant Bill Belichick has been against rookie quarterbacks over the years, and few quarterbacks are rookie-r than the guy still living with his parents. New England's defense hasn't lived up to expectations, but should at least be able to handle the worst QB in the league playing behind shoddy blocking.

A barrage of trends support the under on this game, even (and especially) at a total of 33.5. Belichick is 33-11-1 ATS (75%) for his career in games with a total below 40. You've seen this game a thousand times — when it's low scoring, he'll take the air out of the ball, rely on defense, and hope to find just enough offense somewhere along the way.

The Giants have gone under this hilariously low team total seven times in 11 games (64%) and maxed out at 17 points in all but two games. Who honestly knows if the Pats will score, but the Giants sure won't.

The Patriots are great against the run, so if Barkley is going to make a big impact, it will likely have to come as a receiver. New England's pass defense has struggled against short passes and defending opposing RBs as receivers, and Barkley is dynamic in space.

He has at least three catches in all but one game this year, which means his floor is one away from an over. New England has already allowed nine opposing RBs to catch at least three passes in a game, portending that same floor. We just need one extra check down from Tommy Devito to cash at plus money.

Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your Patriots vs. Giants action.

This game will screen on repeat for all eternity at the waiting room of the gates of hell. No thank you.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Bills vs Eagles Odds, Picks

• The win-loss records say this game is a huge mismatch with the 9-1 Eagles hosting the 6-5 Bills, so why is this line treating these teams as near equals? Check the underlying metrics. Buffalo ranks 5th in DVOA, ahead of Philadelphia at 10th. The Bills offense ranks third, Philadelphia sixth. Even Buffalo's much-maligned defense ranks two spots ahead of the Eagles (17th). The one area the Eagles have been much better for most of the season is stopping the run, but that has flipped in Buffalo's favor in recent weeks. The metrics say the Bills are just as good as the Eagles, despite the difference in the loss column — and maybe even better.
• Both teams are relatively healthy. TE Dallas Goedert is the big name missing for Philadelphia, though it looks like deep threat WR Quez Watkins may return. The Bills will be without CB Dane Jackson and S Taylor Rapp, though it looks like both starting safeties should be good to go.
• On an ugly Sunday slate with a glut of totals throughout the 30s, even a few in the low 30s, this game is tied for the highest total (48.5). Expect fireworks and plenty of points.
• Josh Allen is 16-8-2 ATS as an underdog (67%) in his career, winning five of his past eight outright.

Buffalo's rookie tight end took five games to settle in, but boy has Dalton Kincaid taken off since. The loss of Dalton Knox has unleashed Kincaid and Buffalo's 11 personnel, and Kincaid has posted great numbers. He has 34 catches over the past five games for 318 yards and also scored the first two touchdowns of his career.

Philadelphia invested heavily into its pass rush and corners, but that's left the Eagles weak over the middle, and Philadelphia ranks last by DVOA against opposing tight ends with the second-most fantasy points allowed. That includes the most TDs allowed to tight ends (six), but with Kincaid down to +195 there, I prefer the receiving yards, where the number hasn't caught up yet. Kincaid has gone over this in four of the past five games and missed by only four yards in the other one.

Check out the new user BetMGM bonus code offer before placing your bets on Bills vs Eagles.

Can you tell I'm expecting a ton of passing yards in this game? A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs have two of the three highest receiving yards lines for the week, but those numbers don't line up with the teams' biggest weaknesses. For Buffalo, that's against opposing WR2s, where the Bills rank last by DVOA.

DeVonta Smith is coming off one of his best games of the season after hauling in six catches for 99 yards on Monday night, and he caught fire down the back half of last season as opponents started shifting more and more of their coverage onto A.J. Brown. With Rasul Douglas on Brown, Smith could be in for another nice game. He has at least 44 yards in all but two games, which likely puts us within one catch of the over. If you prefer to go big, skip the median outcome and go for 100+ yards at +470 (Caesars) instead.

I can't make up my mind about a side in this game. Early in the week I thought the number was way too low for Philadelphia, but the more I dug into the game, the more I like Buffalo. It feels like this one will come down to whoever has the ball last, but I think we're getting plenty of points and offense both ways.

This Kincaid line is puzzling considering how central he's been to Buffalo's passing attack in 11 personnel in recent weeks. It feels good in most game scripts too, so I'll ride the Bills rookie.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Chiefs vs Raiders Odds, Picks

• Raiders star edge Maxx Crosby is listed as doubtful and not expected to play. Crosby plays nearly every down for this defense and would be a big loss, and his likely absence could be why this total, which had dropped all week, is starting to tick up.
• The Chiefs have dominated this division rivalry of late, winning 10 of the past 11 and 15 of the past 17. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 36 PPG against the Raiders with at least 28 points in every meeting.

Kansas City's offensive struggles were on display for all to see on Monday night. The Chiefs haven't scored in three consecutive second halves and average just 5.3 PPG in second halves for the season. Over the past four games, the Chiefs — the Chiefs!! — rank bottom eight both passing and overall as an offense by DVOA.

But they're still an above-average team, even in this recent stretch, because the defense also ranks third in that stretch, and the Raiders are top 10 in the same window. These are two of the more underrated defenses in the league. Las Vegas can be run on, but the Chiefs are struggling to run. Additionally, the Raiders have scored 18 or less in all but two games and haven't found much offense with Aidan O'Connell at QB.

These teams are a combined 17-4 to the under (81%), with Raiders games averaging about 37 points a game and Chiefs games at 39. Raiders games have finished at 42 points or below in nine straight, and Las Vegas has established a clear identity (running the ball, chewing up the clock and giving O'Connell a chance) under Antonio Pierce. Expect more of the same here.

Scoring may be hard, especially on the road in Las Vegas where the Raiders' defense has been even better. The Raiders hung around against Miami last week and can do so again with a similar script, riding Josh Jacobs and the run game against a beatable run defense and keeping Mahomes on the sidelines.

Mahomes is only 2-9 ATS for his career (18%) as more than a seven-point favorite on the road, but he's 11-0 SU in those games. It's not always pretty, and books are probably giving him too much credit with the high line, but Mahomes gets the job done. Eight of those 11 wins have come by six or less points, so let's give the Raiders some credit, but not too much, and trust Mahomes to get the job done in a close game.

This was my Hot Read on Sunday night at 44.5, and though we're now below that important key number of 44, I still like the under. I don't think books have accounted enough for how well either defense is playing, let alone the Chiefs' offensive woes of late. Games with a home underdog have gone under 62% of the time the past two years and 65% of the time this season.

I'll play the under, but I'm also going to sprinkle the +360 odds for the Chiefs to win a close one. That fits the script pretty well here with the Raiders keeping it close, but Mahomes finding a way on the road, even as the offense looks for some answers.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Browns vs Broncos Odds, Picks

• Denver has a clear health advantage. Cleveland's offense is missing both tackles along with, of course, its top QB and RB, as Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes another start at QB. The Browns' secondary is also compromised and missing Denzel Ward.
• Denver is tied for the longest winning streak in the NFL with four straight wins. During that stretch, the Broncos rank top 10 by DVOA both passing and stopping the pass, on defense, and overall, but the win streak has also been fueled by heavy turnover luck.

Cleveland's defense continues to carry the team and will have to do it again to make up for all the injuries and lack of offensive production. But Denver's defense has also turned the corner, especially against the pass, and that should make life very difficult on Thompson-Robinson and the offense, especially on the road. Points have been at a premium in Browns' games all season and there's little reason to expect otherwise here. Both teams should skew run-heavy, and that only keeps the clock moving and shortens the game.

Even when the total goes this low, recent history says to keep going under. Unders at 37 or below are 24-6-1 the past four calendar years (80%), and unders at 38 or below are 12-2-1 this season (86%). Kevin Stefanski games with a total below 44 also continue to go under at 14-9-1 (61%).

The numbers would suggest an easy bet on Cleveland, with the Browns ranked first in Defensive DVOA and the Broncos last, but those numbers are still factoring that ugly 70-point game heavily. Denver's defense has been much better since, and the offense has been near top 10 by DVOA at home. This will be a very difficult environment for Thompson-Robinson and Cleveland's offense to find footing.

Denver invested heavily into its offensive line this offseason, and this is the sort of game where that investment pays off. Russell Wilson has proven a worthy game manager and should be able to find just enough plays to eke out another win.

This was the first total I looked for on Sunday night, but it reopened at 36.5, right below the key number, and started trickling down from there. It's bounced back late in the week, and now that we hit 37, I'm ready to play the under.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Rams vs Cardinals Odds, Picks

• It's tough to know what to expect from either team's QB. Kyler Murray has mostly looked since returning, but is still getting up to speed. Matthew Stafford returned last week from injury himself and wasn't particularly great. Both guys are still trying to hit their stride.
• We may not get the best from the WRs on either side in this one either. Cooper Kupp lit up the Cardinals earlier this season, but has an ankle injury, though it looks like he'll play. The Cardinals are missing rookie WR Michael Wilson and could also be without Marquise Brown, who is listed as questionable.
• The Rams have won 12 of the past 14 meetings, so this division rivalry hasn't been much of a rivalry lately.

Williams is finally back for the Rams after missing over a month, and he was quietly terrific early in the season before getting hurt, ranking as the RB4 in fantasy football with consistent production. That included heavy usage in the redzone, as Williams racked up seven touchdowns in six games, including one in his best game of the season, a 20-carry, 158-yard effort against these Cardinals.

Opposing RB1s have scored at least one touchdown in eight of 10 games against the Cardinals, and Williams has made it clear that he's the guy in this offense. You might also sprinkle a portion of your bet at +650 for two or more TDs, since that's an implied 13.3% and Williams has done it in half of his six games this season.

Use the Action Network’s Caesars Sportsbook promo code for a signup bonus when betting Rams vs Cardinals.

Most, including myself, expected Kyler Murray to be somewhat limited as a runner in his return, but that hasn't been the case. He ran for 33 yards and a score in his season debut against Atlanta, including a memorable 3rd-down scramble that saved the game, and then had 51 rushing yards and another score against Houston last week.

The Rams have allowed four QB rushing TDs already this season, tied for most in the NFL, and they don't really have the speed to contain Murray in the pocket or chase him once he escapes. Be sure to bet this at DraftKings at +205 as Murray is at much shorter odds at some books.

I'll stay away from a side with both QBs still a bit unknown in their return from injury, but I'll nibble a bit on Kyren Williams. This looks like one of the higher scoring games of the week, and Williams should be able to run on a bad run defense. He's my pick as the most likely to score in this game with Kupp banged up.

Click here to return to the table of contents.