Bills vs Bengals Player Props: Expert James Cook Pick for Monday Night

Bills vs Bengals Player Props: Expert James Cook Pick for Monday Night article feature image

Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: James Cook.

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks.

James Cook Receiving Yards

PropJames Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
MatchupBills vs. Bengals
Day, TimeMonday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

Cook has been held under this total in each of his last three games, but I see this as a great buy-low opportunity.

The Bills drafted Cook in the second round, and he was arguably the best pass-catching running back in the 2022 class. However, he was only running a route on 13% of Josh Allen's dropbacks up until Week 12.

Over the last four games, though, Cook has run a 38% routes run rate, essentially splitting receiving work with Devin Singletary.

Pick: James Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

The reason he's only cleared this total in the last three games is because of the Bills' run-heavy offense during that span. Allen is averaging just 208 passing yards in the last three weeks, although there's reason to believe Buffalo will look to air it out more against the Bengals.

Cincinnati ranks 14th in DVOA against the run, but the defense was without D.J. Reader for six games earlier this season. His presence is massive, as teams average 4.6 yards per rush against the Bengals without him on the field and 3.6 when he is.

I think the Bills use dump-off passes to Singletary and Cook as an extension of their running game tonight.

I'm projecting Cook's median closer to 15.5 yards, with a 60% chance he clears 10.5.

Receiving YardsOverUnder

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.