Dolphins vs Broncos Odds, Pick: NFL Week 3 Betting Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson (left) and Tua Tagovailoa (right).
Dolphins vs Broncos Odds
Dolphins vs. Broncos odds see Miami installed as a six-point favorite at home in NFL Week 3.
Denver has started the season 0-2 under new head coach Sean Payton, while Miami's season has been going swimmingly. The Dolphins have notched wins against the Chargers and Patriots. They look to increase their winning streak to three while Payton and Russell Wilson try to find their footing.
Let's preview the matchup and make a Dolphins vs. Broncos pick.
Miami’s pass defense was anything but solid last season, but the secondary looks much improved this year. Although we are working with a small sample size, the Dolphins have kept opponents under five total yards per play — something they weren't able to do last year.
It is easy to attribute this to the fact that Miami has only played two games, but it is important to note that one was against the pass-centric Chargers.
Miami’s rush defense, on the other hand, has left a lot to be desired. The Dolphins have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game and nearly five rush yards per attempt.
Miami may be more explosive offensively, but Denver’s offense is a bit more balanced. If Denver can establish the run, it will give them more opportunities to get the passing attack going.
Offensively, it’s no secret that Miami is a fast-paced, high-powered juggernaut. This team can score at will, mostly attributed to its high-flying approach.
Tyreek Hill has established himself as a top receiver in the NFL, and Tua Tagovailoa is on pace for an amazing season. While I am high on the Dolphins pass game, I am not so confident in their ability to establish the run.
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The Broncos struggled to take advantage of a less-than-stellar secondary in Week 1 against Las Vegas. In Week 2, Russell Wilson improved, but the Broncos still struggled to control time of possession.
Denver has committed over 140 yards worth of offensive penalties. Any time the Broncos try to get anything going on offense, they end up shooting themselves in the foot. This not only inhibits momentum, but it reduces scoring, greatly. This is something Denver can’t afford to do if it wants to compete with Miami.
Where Denver thrives is the run game, averaging nearly five yards per play on the ground. This will be enough to expose the Dolphins rush defense early in the game.
The Broncos haven't really called on their run game much, only totaling 45 rush attempts to date. This won’t be the case once they realize Miami can't stop them.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense continues to impress. They have held opponents to under four rush yards per attempt and under 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Broncos have held their opponents’ third-down conversion rate to 38.1%, compared to the Dolphins, who allow a 53.3% third-down conversion rate.
I would be remiss if I did not include Nick Giffen's Week 3 Luck Rankings in my analysis.
If a team is at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in the Luck Rankings, OR they are at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent, the unlucky team is 100-57-6 against the spread since the start of 2018. The Broncos fit not only one, but BOTH of these criteria.
The Broncos are ready to take advantage of an underwhelming Dolphins rush defense. Doing so will give them the opportunity to move the ball through the air, allowing them to keep pace with Miami.
Defensively, the clear advantage belongs to Denver, while Miami has the edge when it comes to explosiveness on offense.
However, once Denver gets the ball going on the ground, its balanced offensive approach will reign supreme.