Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 13): Will Antonio Gates Have More Than 2 Receptions?
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Antonio Gates
- Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
- On Sunday, he looks at the Chargers-Patriots NFL football game and the receptions prop for Los Angeles tight end Antonio Gates.
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to some readers, but I want to be transparent about that.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
6-8-1, -1.45 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 2-3-0, -0.65 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 3-1-1, +1.95 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Sunday, Jan. 13: Antonio Gates Receptions Over/Under 2.0
The Pick: Under (-110)
We had a bad beat yesterday on the Collin Delia 29.5 saves prop: After the game, one of his saves was voided, dropping his total from 30 to 29.
It happens. We stay humble.
The second day of the divisional round kicks off with the Patriots-Chargers game (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET), and Los Angeles tight end Antonio Gates catches my eye.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Gates projected for 1.5 receptions. Since last season, he’s averaged 1.8 receptions per game, and this year he’s sixth on the Chargers with his 9% market share of targets.
Third-year tight end Hunter Henry (knee) is expected to make season debut, and Gates has exhibited notable Henry-based splits since 2017 (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Without Henry (19 games): 3.6 targets, 2.2 receptions
- With Henry (12 games): 2.5 targets, 1.3 receptions
Henry is unlikely to play his full complement of snaps, but he should be involved enough to diminish Gates’ usage as a receiver.
This prop has a lot of push potential, which isn’t ideal, but Gates has had more than two receptions only nine games since last season.
This line is available at Bovada. I wouldn’t bet it any lower than 2.0, but at 2.5 I’d bet it down to -130.