Chargers vs 49ers Player Props: Fading Brandon Aiyuk on Sunday Night Football
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Brandon Aiyuk.
Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards
|Prop||Brandon Aiyuk Under 55.5 Receiving Yards|
|Matchup||Chargers vs. 49ers|
|Day, Time||Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET|
Aiyuk had a good three-game stretch before the 49ers’ bye week, but he took advantage of both Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings being out.
This will be the first game where Aiyuk has to compete for targets with those two, as well as a healthy George Kittle and fully integrated Christian McCaffrey. Garoppolo hasn’t targeted running backs often this season, so McCaffrey will command more and shift the focus of the offense.
All of this will make it more difficult for Aiyuk to see targets on a consistent basis. He’s also due for some regression in terms of catch rate, having hauled in 72% of his targets this season. I’d expect that to be closer to 66% based on his average depth of target.
This is also a game that could see the 49ers lean on the run game. San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday night and faces a Chargers defense that has been a run funnel. Los Angeles ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run.
I’m projecting Aiyuk for closer to 47.5 receiving yards, but there are more paths that lead to him finishing closer to his floor than usual.