Christian Kirk Player Props: Expert Pick for Raiders vs Jaguars

Christian Kirk Player Props: Expert Pick for Raiders vs Jaguars article feature image

Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Kirk.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards

PropOver 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Play to 59.5 Yards
MatchupRaiders vs. Jaguars
Time1 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

It’s hard to believe we’ve reached the halfway mark of the NFL regular season, but here we are in Week 9. All but two games on today’s main slate have spreads at a touchdown or lower, including the Raiders vs. Jaguars. And for my favorite player prop of the day, I’m honing in on Jacksonville’s leading receiver, Christian Kirk.

Kirk leads Jacksonville in receiving yards (498), targets (61) and receptions (35). He’s eclipsed this yardage total in five of his eight games played.

The fifth-year pro also paces the Jaguars in air yards (28%) despite his modest average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.3 yards. This shows that the Jaguars are willing to take their deep shots with Kirk while also getting him involved on higher-percentage throws.

With the Raiders in town, I like Kirk’s chances to produce. Las Vegas has been much better against the run of late and should be focused on stopping Travis Etienne and the Jaguars run game. Over the last five weeks, the Raiders rank ninth in rush defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders) compared to 31st against the pass.

Kirk and the Jaguars are coming off a brutal matchup against the Broncos and their stout secondary. I expect a bounce-back performance today as I have the Texas A&M product projected to exceed 70 yards.

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