NFL Bettors Buying Back Value with Baker Mayfield, Browns vs. Raiders


Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield

Sep 28, 2018, 10:59 AM EDT
  • In early Week 4 betting, the line for Sunday's Cleveland Browns-Oakland Raiders game (4:05 p.m. ET) moved from a pick'em to Raiders -2.5.
  • The line eventually hit Raiders -3, and that's when bettors jumped on the value of Browns +3, dropping the spread back down to 2.5.

Earlier this week, I highlighted how early Week 4 betting action immediately moved the line for Sunday’s Cleveland Browns-Oakland Raiders game from a pick’em to Raiders -2.5.

While 2.5-point NFL line moves are noteworthy, I questioned what would happen if the number eventually hit 3, the most important line in NFL point-spread betting.

On two separate occasions the line touched Browns +3 and both times Cleveland money showed up to knock it back down to +2.5.

In fact, on Thursday night bettors drove the number off 3 down to 2, before the market settled back in at 2.5.

So, what does this mean?

Similar to Sunday’s Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals game, Browns-Raiders is attracting sharp action on both teams depending upon the price.

At a pick’em, the value is with the Raiders. Conversely, bettors like the Browns at the key number of +3.

Remember, professionals don’t have to agree on every game. Sharps bet numbers (not teams), and this is a fantastic example of how the smartest NFL bettors in the world are playing both sides of the same game based on the price the market is offering.

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