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Deebo Samuel Player Props: 2 Prop Picks for Super Bowl

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Deebo Samuel Player Props: 2 Prop Picks for Super Bowl

Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Picks: Deebo Samuel Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-130) | Anytime TD (+160)

Deebo Samuel is a massive X-factor for the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have been at their best this season with a healthy Samuel because he allows them to do so many different things on offense. In the biggest game of the season, he is bound to have a massive role.

Samuel is a unique player because he does things that no one else can do. Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy are both NFL MVP finalists and Brandon Aiyuk led the team in receiving yards, but Samuel unlocks the offense so that all of those players can thrive.

When Samuel got injured in the Divisional Round game against the Green Bay Packers, head coach Kyle Shanahan admitted that he had to throw out a chunk of the playbook — the 49ers have a whole selection of plays that only work when he is on the field. Purdy added that “going into the game, in the run game, we actually had Deebo involved pretty heavily.”


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The 49ers love to use Samuel in their ground attack and run formations with Samuel and McCaffrey in the backfield to confuse defenses. Against a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that ranked 27th in DVOA this season, there is no doubt that Shanahan will look to heavily involve Samuel in the run game.

The Chiefs’ pass defense has been great. However, Samuel might benefit from being in such a loaded offense. George Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the NFL and Aiyuk is more of the deep threat. That opens up screen and short-yardage passes for Samuel. The Chiefs will have to respect Kittle and McCaffrey so much that Samuel should draw less attention — in almost any other offense, Samuel would be the clear No. 1 option.

Because of Samuel’s unique usage, it can be tough to bet on his props. There are certain games he racks up his yardage through the air and others on the ground. That is why the best way to attack is by betting on his rushing + receiving yards, which currently stands anywhere between 75.5 and 80.5 yards, depending on the sportsbook.


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Deebo Samuel Player Props

Betting Picks & Predictions

Samuel has cleared those numbers in seven of nine postseason games under normal circumstances. He has technically played in 11 playoff games, but I'm excluding the game against the Packers where he left with an injury in the first half and last year’s NFC Championship Game where the 49ers were forced to play the second half with no quarterback.

Against the Detroit Lions, Samuel cleared his projected prop line just through the air with 89 receiving yards. If you look back at the 2021 postseason game against the Cowboys, he nearly cleared those numbers just on the ground with 72 rushing yards (he had 38 receiving yards as well). Notably for this matchup, in Super Bowl 54 against the Chiefs, Samuel had 39 receiving yards and 53 rushing yards as a rookie for a total of 92 yards.

In big games, Samuel's usage increases because Shanahan is willing to break out all of the stops. Samuel has also been banged up almost the entire season, but with a two-week layoff heading into this game, he should be totally healthy and ready for as many touches as Shanahan wants to give him.

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The weak point of the Chiefs is their run defense, so Shanahan will no doubt look to use a lot of those two-running back sets with Samuel and McCaffrey, which should allow Samuel to wreak havoc. The Chiefs have to fear McCaffrey, who is the best running back in the league at the moment, and that could give Samuel favorable matchups.

As the time of writing, you can bet Samuel over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards (-130) at PointsBet; DraftKings has the line at over 78.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115). I think it’s worth paying for that extra juice to get an extra three yards of cushion, so bet that line if you can.

In addition to the rushing + receiving prop, I am also betting Samuel to get into the end zone. I think that with his dynamic usage in the run game and the passing game, he will find a way to score.

Best Bets: Deebo Samuel Over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards (-130 at PointsBet; play to 79.5) | Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+160; FanDuel)

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