Bills vs Broncos Pick, Prediction: How To Bet Monday Night Football

Bills vs. Broncos odds have shifted from Bills -7 to -7.5 on Monday afternoon, while the total is now 47.5 at bet365.

Let's preview the game and get into why my Bills vs. Broncos prediction is on one side of the spread.

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Over the first four weeks of the season, Buffalo sported one of the best stop units in the league (as expected), while the Broncos were on pace to have a historically bad defense. Well, since Week 5, these defenses have trended in completely opposite directions.

Due to a trio of massive season-ending injuries — linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and cornerback Tre'Davious White — Buffalo's defense has gone from a top-five unit to a bottom-five unit.

Buffalo already had issues defending the run, but now it also has coverage holes on the back end. Give credit to the staff and front office for understanding action was required.

As a result, the Bills recently traded for cornerback Rasul Douglas and signed defensive tackle Linval Joseph. Still, this defense is nowhere near the elite unit we saw earlier in the season. It's also worth mentioning that safety Micah Hyde and linebacker Terrell Bernard are dealing with injuries, so keep an eye on the statuses of both.

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Conversely, the Broncos defense has done a bit of a 180. After fielding the worst defense through five weeks — opponents averaged 36.2 points per game — the Broncos have made dramatic strides, holding their last three opponents to 15 points per game. That's over three touchdowns fewer than their first five games, which included two games against the high-powered Chiefs.

Denver finally benched cornerback Damarri Mathis the last two games. Mathis, who ranks 114th out of 114 cornerbacks, per PFF, was an enormous liability, especially when you consider teams don't want to throw near Patrick Surtain.

Mathis' replacement, Fabian Moreau, isn't anything to write home about, but he's a serviceable option who won't get burnt to pieces on every play. The Broncos also moved Ja'Quan McMillian to the slot in Week 4, which has paid huge dividends as he ranks fifth among all cornerbacks, per PFF.

The Broncos defense still isn't great by any stretch, but it's healthy and no longer the historically bad group we saw early.

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In regards to both offenses, the Bills certainly have the upper hand with an elite unit that ranks third in EPA per play and first overall in Success Rate. It's worth noting that star wide receiver Stefon Diggs is dealing with an injury while Josh Allen's lingering shoulder issue is negatively impacting his deep ball.

Meanwhile, the Denver offense grades out in the middle of the pack from an advanced metrics standpoint. The Broncos have been a bit better overall on the ground — especially with Javonte Williams back in the mix — and early on in games where Payton's script has been on point.

To wit, the Broncos rank first overall in EPA per play and third in Success Rate in the first quarter. It's imperative they get off to a fast start against a high-powered Buffalo offense that can get hot and put points up in bunches.

I've been consistently fading the Bills since their trip across the pond. I just don't think the market is properly accounting for the drop-off on Buffalo's defense after all of the key injuries.

Meanwhile, I've backed the Broncos a few times since seeing some improvements defensively. I'm not changing my tune this week and I'm rolling with the road 'dog catching over a touchdown.

I expect Sean Payton to have a great script coming off the bye, feeding Williams against an exploitable Buffalo run defense. That should set up some play-action shots for Russell Wilson against a Bills team that plays a high frequency of zone, which Wilson has fared much better against compared to man coverage this season.

The Bills offense remains one of the best in the league, but something still feels a bit off. Regardless, they'll find a way to get their points, but the Broncos defense is much improved since making a few schematic changes and getting healthier.

This is a good bounce-back spot for the Bills, who will probably find a way to pull this one out at home. However, I show too much value to pass up on the road pup catching over a touchdown.