Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?
Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Conner
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Dolphins and Steelers players scoring enough points to win your Week 8 fantasy football matchups.
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Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Dolphins-Steelers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 26 points from James Conner? He has an 12.1% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Steelers: Mason Rudolph, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Vance McDonald
- Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Walton, Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)