Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Conner

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Dolphins and Steelers players scoring enough points to win your Week 8 fantasy football matchups.

This article, usually part of our EDGE membership, is completely FREE to read today — we hope you enjoy it! Be sure to check out our free app, where you can get real-time odds and expert betting analysis while on the go.


Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Dolphins-Steelers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 26 points from James Conner? He has an 12.1% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Steelers: Mason Rudolph, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Vance McDonald
  • Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Walton, Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)


In New Jersey? Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Mason Rudolph, QB, Steelers

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins

James Conner, RB, Steelers

Mark Walton, RB, Dolphins

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers

Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins

Vance McDonald, TE, Steelers

Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins