Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup? article feature image

Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Conner

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Dolphins and Steelers players scoring enough points to win your Week 8 fantasy football matchups.

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Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Dolphins-Steelers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 26 points from James Conner? He has an 12.1% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Steelers: Mason Rudolph, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Vance McDonald
  • Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Walton, Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

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Mason Rudolph, QB, Steelers

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins

James Conner, RB, Steelers

Mark Walton, RB, Dolphins

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers

Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins

Vance McDonald, TE, Steelers

Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins

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