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Dolphins vs Bengals Player Props: Joe Mixon, Mike Gesicki Picks on Thursday Night

Dolphins vs Bengals Player Props: Joe Mixon, Mike Gesicki Picks on Thursday Night article feature image
Credit:

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Mixon.

  • Sean Koerner has not one, but two player props for Dolphins vs. Bengals.
  • The Oddsmaker is targeting picks for Joe Mixon and Mike Gesicki tonight.
  • Check out his bets and breakdowns below.

The league’s most exciting team faces the reigning AFC champions to begin Week 4.

The 3-0 Dolphins lead the AFC East after a pair of thrilling wins over the Ravens and Bills, while the Bengals feasted last week against the Jets en route to their first win.

Here are my props for the game.

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Joe Mixon
Receiving Yards

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Mixon is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry this season, and he’s facing a Dolphins defense that ranks seventh against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

I can see the Bengals using Mixon tonight in the short passing game as an extension of the running game.

Mixon has three or more catches in all three games this season, despite catching just 65% of his targets. I’d expect that to be closer to 80% moving forward.

I’m projecting Mixon for closer to 26.5 receiving yards tonight.

Pick: Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

Mike Gesicki
Receiving Yards

Gesicki’s role has changed significantly in head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense. He ran a route on 80% of Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks last season, but that’s down to 45% so far in 2022. Gesicki stayed as a blocker 11 times last season, but he’s done so seven times already in three games.

This offense flows through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the passing game. While Gesicki has caught all six of his targets this season, we can expect that 100% rate to be closer to 71% given his 6.5 Average Depth of Target.

I’m projecting Gesicki for closer to 14.5 tonight.

Pick: Mike Gesicki Under 20.5 Receiving Yards

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