NFL Player Props: 4:25 p.m. ET Picks for Tyreek Hill, Hunter Renfrow
Getty Images. Pictuerd: Tyreek Hill.
Hunter Renfrow should play a similar role for the Raiders this season as their top slot receiver. While we’ve seen him emerge into a primary target, I’m seeing a lot of value on under 15.5 yards for his longest reception.
Last season, Renfrow stayed under this line in seven of 10 games. His average depth of target of 6.8 yards was the sixth-lowest on the Raiders (among their main pass catchers). In fact, only five of his 50 targets traveled at least 16 air yards (per Pro Football Focus).
This season, Jimmy Garoppolo takes over as the Raiders' starting quarterback. Throughout his career, he’s been less inclined to take deep shots as he has thrown only 8% of his passes at least 20 yards downfield. That’s almost 5% below his Raiders predecessor, Derek Carr.
Add in a matchup against the Broncos' incredibly stingy secondary – they allowed the fewest yards per reception among receivers last season (10.4) – and all signs point to Renfrow staying under 15.5 yards on his longest reception.
Play this bet to -135 at BetMGM.
Coming off a career year, Tyreek Hill will look to start off his second season in Miami with a bang.
Last season, he reeled in at least seven catches in eight of the 13 games started by Tua Tagovailoa. Despite one of those unders coming against today’s matchup, the Chargers, I like Hill to eclipse this line today.
Hill began last season with incredibly high volume, registering at least seven catches in eight of his first nine games as the Dolphins marched out to a 6-3 start. Hill (and several other Dolphins) were hampered by injuries as the season trudged on, but I’m counting on Mike McDaniel to revert back to his team’s early 2022 performance.
The Dolphins' most successful offense was predicated upon getting Hill the ball quickly in space. In the first nine games last season, Hill was targeted 47 times within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (4.7 per game). In the last eight games, Hill was targeted just 26 times within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (3.3 per game).
Expect the Dolphins to try to recapture that magic from early in the 2022 season on higher volume today in what should be a shootout against the Chargers. I project Hill for 12 targets and eight catches, so bet him over 6.5 receptions at +110 on BetMGM or +108 on FanDuel. I'd bet this down to -110.
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