Dolphins at Cowboys Betting Odds
- Odds: Cowboys -21.5
- Total: 46.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds above as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Sean Koerner compares his projected spread and total to the market to identify any potential value, while our staff reveals how they're betting this game.
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Cowboys -18.5
- Projected Total: 46.5
We have two teams favored by 20 or more points this week: The Cowboys and Patriots.
NFL teams that have been favored by 17 or more points are 6-15 against the spread all time. But despite that, sportsbooks are undoubtedly getting hammered with action on both favorites and would like both underdogs to cover.
What makes it even harder for people to back these underdogs is the recency bias of the Patriots making the 19-point spread against the Dolphins appear way too conservative. Part of sports betting is being willing to gamble on spreads like this simply being way too high.
Even with Josh Rosen taking over under center for the Dolphins, I’m going to bite the bullet and take them and Jets knowing full well they’re terrible teams, but that the imaginary points we’re assigning these games have been inflated enough that books know both are more likely to cover than not.— Sean Koerner
Expert Pick
John Ewing: Dolphins +21.5
Bettors are fading the Dolphins. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Cowboys as of writing (see live public betting data here). Miami has lost its first two games by 40 points each; few expect the Fins to win this game. But covering is a different story.
It won’t be pretty, but here are three reasons I’m backing the Dolphins:
- Since 2003, underdogs of 20 or more points are 5-0 against the spread.
- The Dolphins are 0-2 ATS, and underdogs that failed to cover the spread in Weeks 1-2 have gone 52-33 ATS in Week 3.
- According to our NFL power ratings, the spread for this game should be Cowboys -18.5.
