Eagles vs Chiefs Picks: How to Bet Monday Night Football

Eagles vs Chiefs Picks | Monday Night Football

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for this Monday Night Football game and find an Eagles vs. Chiefs pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.

For now, let's get into my Eagles vs. Chiefs picks on Monday night.

• This is the big one — the Super Bowl rematch and one of the marquee games of the year — so let's dive a little deeper on what you need to know and set you up for the prop-a-palooza below.
• Both teams are coming off a bye week and about as healthy as they've been all season. That's particularly notable for Travis Kelce after his early injury and for Jalen Hurts, who's been laboring through a knee injury. The only notable absence is Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. All systems go otherwise.
• You've heard how good Andy Reid is coming out of the bye week for years, but don't bet blindly on that alone. Reid has only covered 2-of-5 times post-bye with Patrick Mahomes (40%), and he's just 5-5 ATS after a regular-season bye with the Chiefs — though he's 9-1 SU in those games.
• This is a Super Bowl rematch, but don't just assume this will be the same game. Both teams are quite different this season. The Chiefs defense might be the best unit on the field, while the Eagles defense is much worse, especially against the pass. Three of the four coordinators are gone since the Super Bowl too, so we'll surely see new matchups and play-calling wrinkles.
• The total on this game has dropped from 48 to as low as 45 at some books. Chiefs unders are 7-2 this season and 9-0 in just the second half; primetime unders are 25-8 (76%) this season in general.
• When Mahomes is anything less than a 3.5-point favorite, he's 15-4-1 ATS (79%) for his career, including the playoffs. When the line is close, history says to trust Mahomes.
• If you feel confident in a winner but don't mind waiting around for a better payout, you might be better off skipping the sides and moneylines and investing in MVP futures instead. Mahomes and Hurts are co-favorites for MVP at most books (around +300 each), and whoever wins this marquee head-to-head matchup will have a clear leg up on the field as we hit the home stretch. I don't recommend futures angles in this column, but if I were playing a side, that's how I'd do it.
• If you do play a side, always be sure to shop around and get the best lines using our tools. If you want the Chiefs, be sure to play -2.5 to stay below the key number. If you're playing Eagles, grab the +3 so you push the key number if necessary. Those little edges add up!
• If you like the Chiefs, this might be your last chance to get Kansas City Super Bowl futures (+450) at a decent number. Kansas City doesn't play another opponent over .500 after this, and late matchups against Buffalo and Cincinnati are less daunting now. The Chiefs hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Miami and Jacksonville and have two fewer AFC losses than Baltimore. Win this one and the Chiefs are set up well to coast to another 1-seed, which means a bye week and one home win away from a sixth straight AFC Championship.

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The Chiefs rate slightly better in all three phases of the game by DVOA, but there's one area the Eagles should have a massive advantage, and that's the run game.

Philadelphia has quietly struggled running the ball of late — bottom-quarter of the league in DVOA in the past six weeks, with A.J. Brown and the passing game picking up the slack — but the Chiefs pass defense has basically been as good as the Browns and Jets at the top of the league during that window.

If the Eagles are going to hang, they'll need to play smash-mouth football. The Eagles' O-line is healthy and whole again, the best unit in the league, and the Chiefs rank last in ESPN's Run Stop Win Rate. Philadelphia should look to pound the run, chew up the clock on long drives and win the trenches.

I'm looking at Eagles rushing attempts overs, both for Hurts and for Swift. Hurts has gone over 8.5 rushes in all but one game — when the knee was clearly bothering him against Washington — and he had 15 rushes in the Super Bowl matchup. Swift has at least 14 rushes in seven of the last eight games.

I like Hurts' anytime TD odds, too. These teams are going to score, and long, running drives could mean Philly's signature Tush Push to close a drive.

Hurts has a non-passing TD in six of nine games this season, and he had one in all three playoff games, including three in the Super Bowl.

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The first place I looked for this game was Travis Kelce props.

The Eagles pass defense is suspect and they are last against TEs by DVOA. If you look at Kelce's playoff game logs, his usage always ticks up and I think Kelce and the Chiefs treat this like a playoff game with so much on the line — and don't forget Taylor Swift and her parents will be in the crowd.

Kelce has scored 15 TDs in 14 playoff games, finding the end zone in 11 of the 14 (79%). That includes the Super Bowl, when he scored the first TD of the game and caught six passes for 81 yards. We know Kelce is capable of huge games and the Eagles' linebackers are their weak spot.

The Eagles have allowed opposing WR1s to score a TD in five of nine games. I considered a Rashee Rice Anytime TD (+240) with three in his last five, but let's be honest — Kelce is this team's WR1. Play Kelce's Anytime TD first (-105, bet365) but sprinkle 10+ receptions (+320, bet365) for a huge volume game instead of yards since he hasn't been quite as explosive this season.

The Chiefs are struggling to run the ball and Philly's rushing defense has been great, but Mahomes really hurt the Eagles with scrambles in the Super Bowl with six runs for 44 yards. He has at least 20 rushing yards in all but one game this season and he has gone over 24.5 in six of nine.

Can you tell I'm excited about this game? Let's hope the teams stay healthy and we get a great Super Bowl rematch.

I'll stay away from a side or total, though I lean Chiefs -2.5 because when in doubt, you trust Pat. I'd rather play Mahomes MVP and/or Chiefs Super Bowl futures.

I like the prop angles better, isolating matchups when both offenses have such clear mismatches to attack. You want Eagles runners and Chiefs passing game overs.

I'll start with a Kelce Anytime TD but will likely add some of the others by kickoff, so keep an eye on the app and don't be afraid to have a little fun and build a SGP with correlated angles if you like.

Let's have some fun!