NFL Odds, Picks: Week 11 Betting Preview for Every Game, Every Team
Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds and picks in our Week 11 betting preview for every game and every team.
We'll go through the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 11, plus how to bet on every team in each game, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game), with my picks at the end.
Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!
NFL Odds, Picks: Week 11 Betting Preview for Every Game, Every Team
Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Deshaun Watson is officially out for the rest of year. I wrote about what it means for the rest of the Browns season. What it means for this game, is that fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his second career start at QB after losing 28-3 to the Ravens in his debut.
- That change wreaked havoc on the Sunday morning lines, which sat at Steelers -4.5 (+180 ML) and a total of 38. The game dropped all the way to nearly a pick'em but has rebounded to Browns -1.5 at most books, and the total plummeted to 33 across the board, even 32.5 at FanDuel, which would tie for the lowest NFL total since 2008.
- If you still like the Browns or think this game goes over, you just got a bunch of free value. If you're leaning the other way like me, be careful — most of the value is gone now.
- Watson isn't the only starter missing. Cleveland is also without both starting tackles and possibly swing tackle Dawand Jones, which may be problematic against Pittsburgh's pass rush. The Steelers are down both starting safeties, with Minkah Fitzpatrick particularly notable.
How to bet the Steelers: Pittsburgh +2 (DraftKings)
The Steelers have been the luckiest team in the NFL this season, per our Luck Rankings, but they got even luckier this week with the Watson and Joe Burrow news setting them up to face a pair of rookie QBs the next two weeks. Watson was not playing great but he was at least a competent game manager, and Thompson-Robinson is a clear downgrade until proven otherwise. This is about where I would've put the fair line with Watson, so there's still some value with DTR.
Pittsburgh does not deserve its record of 6-3, but the Steelers have also played better lately. They're top five in both overall and offensive — yes offensive! — DVOA the last six weeks, and the run game has really found its footing since Broderick Jones stepped into the offensive line.
You already know this is a classic "Rah Rah" Mike Tomlin spot. From Week 5 forward for his career, Tomlin is 44-18-1 ATS (71%) as an underdog, including 21-4-1 ATS (84%) as a division dog and 8-1 SU as a division underdog of under three points. Kevin Stefanski has been poor as a favorite (38% ATS) and in the division (29%), which has amounted to a record of 2-8 ATS (20%) as a division favorite. The line didn't move far enough.
How to bet the Browns: Under 33
The Browns' season is fully on the shoulders of the defense now, so expect this unit to stand up and perform proudly at home against a hated division rival. This is a Super Bowl caliber Cleveland defensive unit, and Pittsburgh's defense far outclasses the Browns offense too, especially with a rookie QB.
The line is wildly low, but the trends still like the under. Unders of 37 or below the last four calendar years have hit at a 79% clip, and games at 38 or below are 11-2-1 to the under (85%) this season. Games at 38 or below that dropped by at least 4.5 points are 29-12-2 to the under (71%). And even when it gets this low, games at 35.5 or below are 6-2 to the under (75%) since 2012.
The data says even when the total plummets, you should still just go under the best number you can find.
My thoughts: No new bets for me
I've been all over this game and already have three bets in: Steelers +4.5, Pittsburgh ML +180 and under 38.5. The Steelers picks were in this column a week ago as my Lookahead, and the under was one of my Hot Read picks on Sunday night. We've got major CLV (closing line value) on all three picks now with Watson out, but I don't see much value on the current lines.
I still lean Steelers and under, so I'm not looking to hedge or middle and will just let the CLV ride. I wouldn't bet on Steelers +2 if you're a fresh bettor and want some action, but I'll personally sit these closing lines out and ride with my tickets in hand.
Chargers vs. Packers Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- We waited on injury news, and the report is grim. Keenan Allen is questionable but expected to play for the Chargers, who are already down their WR2, WR3, and TE1. The Packers are already short two starters in the secondary and could also be without Jaire Alexander. He's listed as questionable along with Rashan Gary, Quay Walker, and Kenny Clark, all defensive starters.
- Neither defense has been very good and both are trending down, but the Packers have been particularly bad against opposing WR1s and defending down the field. Keenan Allen could be in for another monster day if he can stay on the field.
How to bet the Chargers: Chargers Team Total over 23.5
The Chargers need a win badly and should get it against a Packers squad with far less talent, but it's hard to trust this defense or coaching staff. Let's isolate and play just the Chargers offense, which has been far more reliable and closed last week with a touchdown on its final five drives in a loss.
Allen should have a huge game — I was looking at his props here too — and Justin Herbert will get anything he wants here. The Chargers should also be able to run the ball easily against this terrible rushing defense, fitting the script Kellen Moore prefers. That, plus the Packers' slow pace of play has suppressed the total and left value on the Chargers TT. LA has gone over this in seven of nine games, all but against terrific Cowboys and Chiefs defenses, so 24 isn't a big ask.
How to bet the Packers: Green Bay 2H +1.5
The Packers' first-half problems are well documented at this point. Green Bay's offense ranks bottom six by DVOA in the first half but is top six in the second half. The Chargers are the opposite. LA's offense is often good early but struggles late in games, especially protecting a lead and especially in the fourth quarter. The Chargers are in the bottom quarter of the league offensively by DVOA in the fourth.
If you think the Packers win this game, you might prefer to wait and bet this one live after the Chargers get an inevitable lead early and you get a spicy underdog line. I like betting the second-half line before the game, since the number could shorten by halftime if the Chargers do lead. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in second halves this season. Jordan Love is coming off possibly his best game as a pro, and the Chargers defense is ripe for the picking.
My thoughts: Bet Chargers Team Total over 23.5 if Keenan Allen plays
I really like the Chargers here. They are just a much better team, but I simply don't trust them — not the defense nor the coaching, not on the road, not in a house nor in a blouse. I do trust the offense against this terribly coached Packers defense, though.
Will the Chargers win? Will they cover? Will some ridiculously stupid thing derail them late like it somehow does every week? I don't care. The Chargers should move the ball and score, so just get your 24 and cash our ticket.
Cardinals vs. Texans Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- It looks like Nico Collins is back at WR for Houston but they'll be without Noah Brown, along with RB Dameon Pierce and S Jimme Ward. Arizona's offensive line injury situation remains messy too.
- We waited on a potential line move with this sitting at Texans -4.5 all week, and it did in fact move, now at -6 at most books and hitting a key number.
- This is somehow the fourth straight week the Texans defense will face a former No. 1 overall pick Heisman-winning quarterback: Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, and now Kyler Murray.
How to bet the Cardinals: Arizona +6
Kyler Murray sure looked like himself in his season debut, especially on that game-saving 3rd-and-10 run late. Murray's presence alongside James Conner changes everything for Drew Petzing's offense, and Arizona should be able to move the ball on a beatable Houston defense. Murray actually missed three of four games against DeMeco Ryans when he was in San Francisco too, so Ryans won't have much of an experience edge defending the slippery QB.
Houston is flying high after a huge win over the Bengals, and regular readers know I've set up camp on Texans Island, but this line is too high. Houston's defense isn't good enough yet to hold leads comfortably, and the last two Texans wins are by two and three points. Murray is 21-11-2 ATS (66%) as an underdog and should at least cover this line through the back door, if nothing else.
How to bet the Texans: C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards (+225, FanDuel)
Stroud continues to dazzle in his rookie season after another game-winning drive, but he was great the other 58 minutes too. He lit up Cincinnati's defense for 356 yards, and that comes after dropping 470 yards and five scores on the Bucs. Stroud is leading the NFL in passing yards per game as a rookie at 291.8.
That's just a touch below 300, and that means +225 (implied 31%) is far too long for a QB playing this well this soon. Arizona's offense may be improved but the defense still stinks, currently ranked bottom five against both the run and the pass by DVOA. Devin Singletary had a nice game last week but this team still struggles to run consistently so it should be up to Stroud to have another big day.
My thoughts: Sprinkle C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards (+225)
Stroud should get anything he wants against this secondary, and playing this way is matchup proof since he'll either be the reason Houston is ahead or throwing from behind. He's hit 300 yards in four of nine games (44%) so far this season.
I do think the Texans win, and should win relatively easily by winning in the trenches both ways, but I don't see value on the line. This is a better value and gives us an out in case this young Texans squad struggles again too. You can play 300+ yards in a Texans win as an SGP at FanDuel at +313 if you like.
Titans vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- The Jaguars have won only three of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry but swept the Titans last year. Weirdly enough, things aren't usually close between Jacksonville and Tennessee. Eight of those 12 matchups were decided by 12 or more points, and we've seen five sweeps in six seasons.
- Mike Vrabel is 23-12-1 ATS (66%) as an underdog of three or more points and 19-17 straight up in those games with a 54% ROI on the moneyline. But this year, the Titans are 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU in that spot.
- The Jaguars were demolished 34-3 last week but are still 6-3 on the season. Teams with at least a 60% win percentage coming off a loss of 20 or more are 81-40-1 ATS (67%), including 43-11 ATS (80%) from Weeks 8 through 15.
How to bet the Titans: Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards (+825, bet365)
This hasn't been King Henry's finest season. His 4.2 YPC is tied for the lowest of his career, and his 69.4 YPG is a far cry from his usual production. But Henry has demolished the Jaguars year after year. Just look at his past eight rushing lines over the past few years against Jacksonville, starting with the most recent: 30/109, 17/121/1, 29/130/3, 26/215/2, 25/84, 19/159/2, 17/44/1 and 17/238/4.
Titans' fans (and fantasy players) remember that monster 238-yard, four-touchdown effort on a Thursday night in December 2018, and Henry has rumbled over, around and through the Jaguars ever since. Jacksonville's defense suddenly looks vulnerable after the San Francisco game. The run defense has been good most of this year, but that was true last year too and it didn't stop Henry then. This number is just way too long considering Henry has hit 100 against Jacksonville in six of the past eight.
How to bet the Jaguars: Calvin Ridley 100+ receiving yards (+825, bet365)
I know, I know — fool me once, fool me twice with Ridley. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the new season, and after a big first week, he's mostly stayed sleeping. Ridley had 101 yards in the opener but has topped 40 yards only two other times as a Jaguar, with 7/122 against Buffalo and 6/83 against Pittsburgh.
It's clear that playing a median outcome for Ridley is not worthwhile. If it's not happening for him, he's practically invisible — and it's becoming a problem for OC Press Taylor, who either unable or unwilling to scheme his most-talented receiver open and get him the ball.
Well, Tennessee could be the solution because the Titans rank last against WR1s by DVOA. The Titans are a pass funnel and have already allowed 100-yard games to Chris Olave, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper and Mike Evans.
My thoughts: Sprinkle Derrick Henry 100+ yards & Calvin Ridley 100+ yards
I don't have a great angle on this game, and I'm not totally confident that either Henry or Ridley has a big game either. But the path to both is there, and +825 is too long a price for both of them. I'll sprinkle each prop, expecting to lose both, but +825 implies 10.8% of hitting and that's just way too low.
Raiders vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Miami is coming out of a bye week. How will Mike McDaniel's offense self-scout and improve? The Dolphins had a five-game losing streak late in 2022, and their offense dropped from first in DVOA the first six weeks of this season to just 19th their last three games.
- Both defenses are quietly trending up. The Raiders have improved to 13th in Defensive DVOA over the past six weeks, including top-10 against the pass. The Dolphins rank one spot ahead of Las Vegas, getting healthy with Jalen Ramsey back and settling in under Vic Fangio.
How to bet the Raiders: Josh Jacobs over 61.5 rushing yards
The Raiders are loving life under Antonio Pierce, smoking stogies in the locker room, riding high at 2-0 with their interim coach. They've quickly adopted Pierce's toughness, playing good defense and committing to the run. Jacobs had 26 carries for 98 yards in Pierce's debut, then 27 for 116 last week. He wasn't really any more efficient, but it's his two highest-carry loads of the season and it's about toughness and identity.
The Raiders line has improved and outperformed expectations, and Miami's run defense ranks bottom-7 by DVOA and is the team's weak spot. Six opposing running backs have had 15 carries against the Dolphins, and five of them went over this line. Expect the Raiders to protect their rookie QB by running the ball, chewing up clock, and trying to keep Tua Tagovailoa's offense off the field.
How to bet the Dolphins: Raheem Mostert Anytime TD (-133 Caesars)
The Raiders defense is improving, but only against the pass. Las Vegas's run defense has actually gotten worse, near the bottom of the league now, and even as Miami's passing attack has faltered midseason, its run game has remained strong. All the better that Terron Armstead and Conner Williams are back, too.
You'll want to back some part of this Miami run game, though it could be a difficult choice with the likely return of De'Von Achane and both backs viable to rip a long run at any time. Mostert has found the end zone in seven of nine games (78%), including every Dolphins win. Achane's return buys some value on the number.
My thoughts: Bet Josh Jacobs over 61.5 rushing yards
The commitment to the run game under Pierce has been very clear, and I expect Jacobs to get his carries in almost any script. The line for this game reaching nearly two TDs in Miami's favor feels wild to me, and I wouldn't be shocked if a tough Raiders team hung around with Jacobs chewing up yards and clock. No escalator here, but I'm betting the Jacobs rushing yards over on a line that should be in the high 70s at least. I continue to recommend Jacobs' rushing title odds, too.
Cowboys vs. Panthers Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- The Cowboys are obviously the far better side, but if you're looking for some reasons to believe, Dallas has been more good than great on the road defensively, and Carolina's defense has played like a fringe top-10 unit over the past month.
- Carolina head coach Frank Reich gave play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown during the bye week, but has taken them back again two games later, which is … odd? Doesn't seem great yanking around a rookie QB like that, especially since Bryce Young is struggling anyway.
How to bet the Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb 100+ receiving yards (+300, DraftKings)
No one in football is hotter than CeeDee Lamb, and there's little reason to think he'll slow down this week against a mediocre pass defense that's particularly bad against WR1s and defending the deep ball. Dallas made a change after the 49ers blowout loss in how it was using Lamb, and he's exploded since.
Lamb had seven catches for 117 yards the following week, and that was his worst outing in the past four as he has had at least 11 catches and 151 yards in three straight games, an NFL record. Lamb's traditional over/under is 82.5 (-110), which implies a 52% chance of 83 yards. It's silly, then, that we can bet 100+ yards at +300, since that's just 17 more yards — one catch, really — at an implied 25% — half the odds for triple the payout.
How to bet the Panthers: Carolina +10.5 & Under 42.5 SGP (+246, DraftKings)
Maybe the Panthers catch the Cowboys catnapping in a sleepy road spot before Thanksgiving. If they do, it'll likely be because of Carolina's defense showing up, not because the Panthers' offense suddenly found a ton of answers against this nasty Dallas defense. That means these outcomes are correlated, since a low-scoring game makes 10.5 points a big ask to cover. So, playing them together is in our favor.
Games featuring home underdogs have gone under 62% of the time the past three seasons and Dak Prescott road unders are 60% for his career.
My thoughts: No bet for me
Typically I'd back the big home underdog here, but Dallas has been a tremendous frontrunner and absolutely steamrolls teams once it gets going. All but one Cowboys win has been by 23 or more points. We might get a bunch of garbage time or a team packing it in for Thanksgiving, and I just don't need action.
Bears vs. Lions Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Justin Fields is back! Fields hasn't played in a month, but he looks like a full go and has had a nice history against the Lions, so he could hit the ground running — literally. Fields' return dropped this line from where it was earlier in the week, closer to -10 after Detroit's offensive fireworks Sunday. Looks like RB Khalil Herbert will return for Chicago too.
- This division rivalry has been very unpredictable in recent years. Seven of the past nine games finished within one score, covering this line. The Bears have won seven of the past 10, but the Lions swept last season's meetings.
Fields had a slow start to this season as a runner, with only four rushing attempts in two of his first four games. He looked hesitant to take off and scramble, and Luke Getsy wasn't calling him many designed runs. That changed in his past two games, with 19 carries for 113 yards in a game and a half, and we can probably expect more Fields running going forward now that this offense found its rhythm with him.
Chicago's run blocking has been fantastic, and the Bears can run in this game. Fields terrorized the Lions' defense last year, running for 147 and 132 yards in two meetings and busting a long one in both. He's run for at least 46 yards in four of six games this season and in 16 of the past 19 dating back to last season (84%). That's a heck of a floor and it means this line is probably too low.
I can't help but have a little fun and sprinkle 100+ yards at +1125 considering he's done that twice in a row against Detroit. He'll probably need to bust another long one, but his ability to do so also means we can hit that on any play at any time.
How to bet the Lions: Tease Detroit -7.5 to -1.5
It's weird to type this sentence, but I trust the Lions. This is a good, smart team that's top 10 both running and passing on both offense and defense. We can trust Detroit to get the win and get to Thanksgiving, but I don't love the line above the key number of seven in a division rivalry that's usually tight, especially since Chicago has the No. 1 run defense over the past six weeks and can shut down Detroit's outside run.
This is the perfect spot for a classic 6-point teaser since we can cross off the key numbers of seven and three and get this down to -1.5, where Detroit effectively just has to get a needed win at home. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown should have a huge advantage in the passing game against a bad secondary, and Goff and the Lions are good at home and have earned our trust.
My thoughts: Tease the Lions to -1.5
The return of Fields bought us some value on the line. Early in the week with the line closer to -10, this was Bears or pass. I still lean Bears at +7.5, but trust the Lions teased down to -1.5. I like teasing the Lions with the Vikings.
Giants vs. Commanders Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Tommy DeVito will get the start again for the Giants. At quarterback, unfortunately.
- The Giants rank last in DVOA. They're last in Offensive DVOA, last in both running and passing. Both teams are bottom-5 in Defensive DVOA, with the Commanders ranking last the past six weeks.
- You don't have to watch this game. You don't even have to pretend it's football.
How to bet the Giants: New York +9.5
This line is just goofy. These teams played under a month ago without Daniel Jones then, too, and the Giants won, 14-7.
The preseason line for this game was Giants -1.5. You're telling me DeVito is that bad?! This line should not have moved 11 points from preseason, especially since Washington is worse than expected, too. The Giants had been playing better defense before running into Dallas last week, and Wink Martindale's aggressive unit will get to Sam Howell.
When teams look as impossibly bad as the Giants currently do, they always eventually regress back to the mean. New York's average margin of victory this season is -14.8. From Week 5 forward, underdogs with at least a -14 MOV are 101-52-1 ATS (66%), and that jumps to 60-22-1 ATS (73%) on the road. We've seen six matchups like that in the last calendar year, and the road underdog won three of them outright.
The Giants are bad. They're just not this bad.
How to bet the Commanders: Jahan Dotson over 35.5 receiving yards
Dotson was a bust last week, held without a catch on only two targets. But he still played his usual snaps and had re-established himself as the clear WR2 with 17 catches for 220 yards and two TDs the previous three games.
Dotson went over this line in all three of those games, one of them against the Giants. The floor is still low, but his median outcome is well above this number given his role on the offense. This line should be at least 10 yards higher.
My thoughts: Bet Giants +9.5
We're not betting on DeVito — instead, we're betting against this ludicrous number and against the Commanders as double-digit favorites. This was my Hot Read at Giants +10 and it absolutely should not be above a touchdown.
The Commanders haven't covered this line all season, and they've covered it only four times the last three years. This rivalry has seen seven one-score games in the last eight matchups, and Washington has beaten the Giants by more than 10 points just once in the last 25 meetings. This is just way too many points — especially with a total at 37 — for a favorite that has earned no right to be favored by this much against anyone.
Jets vs. Bills Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- The Bills find their season on the brink at 5-5, and Buffalo fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey this week and replaced him with Joe Brady. That could make for a bit of a rocky transition against a nasty Jets defense.
- The Jets have been particularly tough on Josh Allen. He's passing for just 196 YPG his past three against the Jets, with two touchdowns and six interceptions. All three of those games finished within one score, covering this line, and these division rivals have played seven one-score games in their past 10.
- The Bills are 7-3 to the under and the Jets are 6-3 to the under this season. That could mean a low-scoring game with a total already sitting at 40.
We all watched that Monday night opener when the Jets won in overtime, and it was obvious Buffalo was the much better team and should've won, but this is not that Bills team anymore. The old Bills responded with 41 PPG in the three games following the Jets loss, but have plummeted to 20.5 PPG in six games since.
Now that faltering offense has to face a Jets defense that's become everything it was supposed to be. New York has found answers against almost every top quarterback, and the metrics say this defense is as good as any in football over the past six weeks — especially against the pass.
Buffalo's defense isn't good, not by any measure. The injuries have piled up, and Buffalo ranks 31st in Defensive DVOA the past six weeks. The Bills are 31st against the pass in that stretch and bottom three against WR1s on the season, so this could be a Garrett Wilson game. Buffalo has also been poor on first downs, which sets the Jets up to find some success early and keep things a bit easy for Zach Wilson.
The truth hurts: the Jets' defense is good enough to match Buffalo's offense, and the Bills' defense is bad enough to match New York's offense. These teams are much closer to even than -7, so grab the key number.
How to bet the Bills: Stefon Diggs over 77.5 receiving yards
As awesome as the Jets' pass defense is, New York has given up some surprisingly strong lines to opposing WR1s: 6/86 to Davante Adams, 8/77 to Keenan Allen, 7/131 to A.J. Brown, 11/143 to CeeDee Lamb and 10/102 to Stefon Diggs back in Week 1.
Diggs had 100+ receiving yards in five of Buffalo's first six games, but has fallen off since and is coming off his worst game of the season. Expect Brady's offense to emphasize his stud receiver and make sure Diggs gets plenty of chances. He's gone over this line in four of his past five against the Jets and in six of 10 games this season. Buy the dip and expect a big bounce-back performance when Buffalo needs it most.
My thoughts: Bet Jets +7
Are we totally positive the Bills are the better team right now? In the past six weeks, Buffalo is 2-4. The two wins were both by under a touchdown, eking out ugly wins against the Giants and Buccaneers. The Jets aren't great, but they're better than both of those squads. I trust New York's defense (and frankly, Josh Allen) to force a few turnovers and give the Jets a chance. This is my favorite side of the week.
Seahawks vs. Rams Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Looks like Matt Stafford is ready to go. He has no injury designation coming out of the bye week, along with RT Rob Havenstein and LB Ernest Jones. The Rams are healthy, but the Seahawks are not. Tyler Lockett and Jamal Adams are questionable, though RT Abraham Lucas has a chance to return.
- This division rivalry has been unpredictable. The Rams won 30-13 in Seattle in the season opener as underdogs, and the home team has won only two of the last six matchups. These games often aren't close either. Five of the last seven have not finished within one score, so you might consider an alt line if you're playing a side.
How to bet the Seahawks: Noah Fant over 2.5 receptions (+150, BetRivers)
Fant didn't have a touch in the season opener against the Rams, playing only 25 snaps, but his snap count has slowly risen since that point, and he's now logged a 53% snap rate or higher in four straight. That's still only led to five catches on eight targets, but he appears to be the TE1 now as Colby Parkinson's snaps trickle down at 45% or lower in three straight with two targets total.
The Rams have struggled against the pass and are especially bad against tight ends, allowing the second worst PPG in fantasy scoring. Every opposing TE1 has at least two catches against the Rams this season, which puts us within one catch of the over if Fant is indeed TE1 now, and six of the nine (67%) have at least three. This will likely be a sweat, but let's see if we can predict Fant's breakout game.
How to bet the Rams: Rams 1H +0.5
These teams look pretty even at full strength, and the Rams offense might be better if Stafford is truly healthy. LA's offense has been much better in the first half this season, and Seattle's defense has struggled early but played better in the second half. The Rams feel like the right side for the game, but we may as well play those tendencies and play the first half, especially since a tie is a win.
Sean McVay is good coming off a loss (62% ATS) and as a division underdog (73%), and Stafford is good coming out of the bye (64%). Those are all full-game trends but set up well for us, and home underdogs coming off a bye week are 51-31-13 ATS (62%).
My thoughts: No bet for me
Books can't make up their mind on this game, with some offering Seahawks -1 and some at Rams -1, and I'm about in the same spot. This feels like a true coin flip, and a Rams win here keeps LA's faint playoff hopes alive and really opens up the NFC wildcard race. I'll sit out and watch what should be a fun one.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- Both teams won convincingly last week to snap long losing streaks. The 49ers had lost three games in a row before getting the win out of the bye week. The Bucs had lost four straight since beating the Saints back on October 1.
- Despite those losing streaks, both teams are still tied in the loss column for the division lead, and both defenses are trending up with strong performances.
How to bet the Buccaneers: Mike Evans over 55.5 receiving yards
The Bucs can't run the ball to save their lives, but Tampa Bay's pass protection has been strong and should give Baker Mayfield time to test San Francisco's one real defensive weak spot, its corners. The 49ers are beatable on the outside, so Chris Godwin and especially Mike Evans can win and help Tampa move the ball.
Usually I play Mike Evans for a touchdown, and he's scored in six of nine games this season, but it's tough to bet on a touchdown against a tough defense. The yardage total sticks out as the better play as Evans has at least 39 yards every game this season, which gives him a safe floor that puts him within one catch of the over. Also, he's gone over 55.5 yards in six of nine games (67%).
How to bet the 49ers: Under 41.5
Both defenses are trending up, and the Bucs have the No. 2 Run DVOA defense over the past six weeks. The run game is always the key to this 49ers offense, so if Tampa Bay can defend the run, it can at least keep this game low scoring and relatively close.
Bucs games are 7-2 to the under this season. Todd Bowles games go under on the road (64%) as he slows things down, and Baker Mayfield typically goes under (70%) in games with a total below 44.
Be sure to shop around for the highest number you can find, since both 41 and 42 can be marginal key numbers when betting totals.
My thoughts: Bet Mike Evans over 55.5 receiving yards
I wasn't coming into this game looking to bet on Evans' receiving yards, but this line is just too low. The 49ers have already allowed 11 games of at least 56 yards to wideouts this season and there's little reason to believe Evans won't add to the list, especially since this play should be matchup proof, with a big San Francisco lead only pushing Tampa Bay to pass more.
Vikings vs. Broncos Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- This may not feel like the most exciting Sunday Night Football matchup you've ever seen, but believe it or not, these teams have the longest current win streaks in football. The Broncos have won three in a row and the Vikings have won five straight.
- Denver's defense still ranks last in DVOA against the pass, run, and overall, but it's going to be hard to get away from that number when one 70-point game skews things so badly. In the six games since that embarrassment, the Broncos are up to a respectable 19th in Defensive DVOA, including 11th against the pass, though still league-worst against the run.
- Russell Wilson is 15-8-2 ATS (65%) at home in primetime for his career, though most of those games obviously came in Seattle. He's only played two home Denver primetime games, and both were memorable for how completely unmemorable they were: a 12-9 loss to the Colts and an 11-10 win over the 49ers. Gross. Let's hope we don't get another one of those baseball scores here.
- Justin Jefferson is practicing, but looks doubtful for this game. Minnesota could also be down to third-string running back Ty Chandler.
Denver is always tough at home, where the offense has been much better, and the Broncos defense has been stout in recent weeks. It feels like both defenses could have the advantage here, and primetime unders continue to hit (25-7 this season (78%) and 62% over the past four years). That sets up for a cold, low-scoring game between two pretty evenly-matched teams.
The Vikings have the better defense and more reliable weapons, and they've also proven they can hang in tough games with an ability to keep things close. You remember all of Minnesota's one-score games last season. This is a perfect teaser spot to +8.5, crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7 and forcing Denver to win by two scores. Minnesota has covered a line of +8.5 in all 10 games this season and in 23 of 27 games since the start of last season (85%).
How to bet the Broncos: Jerry Jeudy over 43.5 receiving yards
Minnesota's defense has been one of the most surprising units in football this season under Brian Flores. The Vikings rank top 12 against the run and the pass and eighth overall. The Vikings have done a great job limiting opposing WR1s, but have bled yardage against WR2s, perhaps by design. Minnesota ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing WR2s.
It's clear at this point that Courtland Sutton is the go-to guy in this passing attack, but this could be a Jerry Jeudy game. Minnesota has allowed the opposing WR2 to go over 43.5 yards in eight of 10 games this season (80%), and Jeudy has gone over that line in five of eight games (63%). He could be a nice outlet for some short passes if Wilson is under pressure all game.
My thoughts: Tease the Vikings to +8.5
This is a classic Wong teaser spot for the Vikings on the road, and it's my favorite teaser of the week. A six-point teaser crosses both of the most important key numbers and all we have to do is bank on the Vikings staying within one score against a pretty middling opponent, something Minnesota has repeatedly proven capable of.
As long as Joshua Dobbs doesn't turn into a pumpkin in primetime on the cusp of Thanksgiving, this looks like a safe teaser spot. I like teasing the Vikings with the Lions.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks
What you need to know:
- This is the big one — the Super Bowl rematch and one of the marquee games of the year — so let's dive a little deeper on what you need to know and set you up for Prop-a-palooza below.
- Both teams are coming off a bye week and about as healthy as they've been all season. That's particularly notable for Travis Kelce after his early injury and for Jalen Hurts, who's been laboring through a knee injury. The only notable absence is Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. All systems go.
- You've heard how good Andy Reid is coming out of the bye week for years, but don't bet blindly on that alone. Reid has only covered two of five times post-bye with Mahomes (40%), and he's just 5-5 ATS after a regular season bye with the Chiefs — though he's 9-1 SU in those games.
- This is a Super Bowl rematch, but don't just assume this will be the same game. Both teams are very different this season. The Chiefs defense might be the best unit on the field, while the Eagles defense is much worse, especially against the pass. Three of the four coordinators are gone since the Super Bowl too, so we'll surely see new matchups and play calling wrinkles.
- The total on this game has dropped from 48 to as low as 45 at some books. Chiefs unders are 7-2 this season and 9-0 in just the second half, and primetime unders are 25-8 (76%) this season in general.
- When Patrick Mahomes is anything less than a 3.5-point favorite, he's 15-4-1 ATS (79%) for his career, including the playoffs. When the line is close, history says to trust Mahomes.
- If you feel confident in a winner but don't mind waiting around for a better payout, you might be better off skipping the sides and moneylines and investing in MVP futures instead. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are co-favorites for MVP at most books around +300 each, and whoever wins this marquee head-to-head matchup will have a clear leg up on the field as we hit the home stretch. I don't recommend futures angles in this column, but if I were playing a side here, that's how I'd do it.
- If you do play a side, always be sure to shop around and get the best lines using our tools. If you want the Chiefs, be sure to play -2.5 to stay below the key number. If you're playing Eagles, grab the +3 at DraftKings so you push the key number if necessary. Those little edges add up!
- If you like the Chiefs, this might be your last chance to get Kansas City Super Bowl futures (+450) at a decent number. Kansas City doesn't play another opponent over .500 after this, and late matchups against Buffalo and Cincinnati are less daunting now. The Chiefs hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Miami and Jacksonville and have two fewer AFC losses than Baltimore. Win this one and the Chiefs are setup well to coast to another 1-seed, which means a bye week and one home win away from a sixth straight AFC Championship for Mahomes and the gang.
How to bet the Eagles: Jalen Hurts over 8.5 rushing attempts (-105) | D'Andre Swift over 13.5 rushing attempts (-110) | Hurts Anytime TD (+125)
The Chiefs rate slightly better in all three phases of the game by DVOA, but there's one area the Eagles should have a massive advantage, and that's the run game. Philadelphia has quietly struggled running the ball of late, bottom quarter of the league in DVOA in the past six weeks, with A.J. Brown and the passing game picking up the slack, but the Chiefs pass defense has basically been as good as the Browns and Jets at the top of the league during that window.
If the Eagles are going to hang, they'll need to play smashmouth Philly football. The Eagles line is healthy and whole again, the best unit in the league, and the Chiefs rank dead last in ESPN's Run Stop Win Rate. Philadelphia should look to pound the run, chew up the clock on long drives, and win the trenches.
I'm looking at Eagles rushing attempts overs, both for Hurts and for Swift. Hurts has gone over 8.5 rushes in all but one game, when the knee was clearly bothering him against Washington, and he had 15 rushes in the Super Bowl matchup. Swift has at least 14 rushes in seven of the last eight games.
I like Hurts' anytime TD odds too. These teams are going to score, and long, running drives could mean Philly's signature Tush Push to close a drive. Hurts has a non-passing TD in six of nine games this season, and he had one in all three playoff games, including three in the Super Bowl.
How to bet the Chiefs: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-115) | Kelce 10+ receptions (+320) | Patrick Mahomes over 24.5 rushing yards (-110)
The first place I looked for this game was Travis Kelce props. The Eagles pass defense is suspect, and Philly ranks dead last against TEs by DVOA. If you look at Kelce's playoff game logs, his usage always ticks way up and I think Kelce and the Chiefs treat this like a playoff game with so much on the line — and don't forget Taylor Swift and her parents will be in the crowd too.
Kelce has scored 15 TDs in 14 playoff games, finding the endzone in 11 of the 14 (79%). That includes the Super Bowl, when he scored the first TD of the game and caught six passes for 81 yards. We know Kelce is capable of huge games and the Eagles' linebackers are their weak spot.
The Eagles have allowed opposing WR1s to score a TD in five of nine games. I considered Rashee Rice Anytime TD (+240) with three in his last five, but let's be honest — Kelce is this team's WR1. Play Kelce's Anytime TD first (-115, DraftKings) but sprinkle 10+ receptions (+320, bet365) for a huge volume game instead of yards since Kelce hasn't been quite as explosive this season.
The Chiefs are struggling to run the ball and Philly's rushing defense has been great, but Mahomes really hurt the Eagles with scrambles in the Super Bowl with six runs for 44 yards. He has at least 20 rushing yards in all but one game this season and has gone over 24.5 in six of nine.
My thoughts: Bet Travis Kelce Anytime TD -115
Can you tell I'm excited about this game? Let's hope the teams stay healthy and we get a great Super Bowl rematch. I'll stay away from a side or total, though I lean Chiefs -2.5 because: when in doubt, trust Pat. I'd rather play Mahomes MVP and/or Chiefs Super Bowl futures.
I like the prop angles better, isolating matchups when both offenses have such clear mismatches to attack. You want Eagles runners and Chiefs passing game overs. I'll start with a Kelce Anytime TD here but will likely add some of the others by kickoff, so keep an eye on the app and don't be afraid to have a little fun and build a SGP with correlated angles if you like. Let's have some fun!
Week 11 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks
(updated through Saturday afternoon)
- Jets +7.5
- Josh Jacobs over 61.5 rushing yards
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-115)
- Tease Lions -7.5 to -1.5 & Vikings +2.5 to +8.5
- Chargers team total over 23.5
- Giants +9.5
- Mike Evans over 55.5 receiving yards
- C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards (+225)
- Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards (+825)
- Calvin Ridley 100+ receiving yards (+825)
- Week 12 Lookahead: Lions -7.5 vs Packers on Thanksgiving