Texans vs Eagles Odds, Picks & Predictions | Thursday Night Football
John Jones/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Brown (No. 11).
Texans vs Eagles Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -107 | 45.5 -107o / -107u | -750 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -107 | 45.5 -107o / -107u | +500 |
This is about as dominant a matchup as we’ll see this season in the NFL. The World Series is taking place in Philadelphia. People in Houston, meanwhile, are treated to this.
Can the Texans stay competitive against the undefeated Eagles? Let’s dig in and find out.
Texans vs Eagles Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Eagles match up statistically:
Texans vs Eagles DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 30 | |
| Pass DVOA | 6 | 17 | |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 32 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 31 | 2 | |
| Pass DVOA | 29 | 2 | |
| Rush DVOA | 27 | 22 | |
When the Eagles Have the Ball
The Texans have been respectable against the pass, ranking 17th in DVOA thanks to solid play by cornerbacks Steven Nelson, Derek Stingley Jr. and Desmond King. However, they rank dead last against the run in DVOA and have to face a potent Eagles rushing attack, perfectly equipped to take a blow torch to their swiss cheese run defense.
I expect the Eagles to lean heavily on Miles Sanders' and Jalen Hurts’ rushing abilities in the first half. Then, once the game is likely out of reach in the second half, Philadelphia will let backups running backs Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell handle mop-up duty.
Eagles -14 | Texans +14
When the Texans Have the Ball
While the Eagles rushing attack is a huge mismatch over the Texans' putrid run defense, the Texans face another glaring mismatch when they have the ball.
The Eagles defense ranks second in DVOA against the pass, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Davis Mills is able to generate much of a passing attack against such an elite defense. Mills has struggled in Year 2, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt out of 36 qualified quarterbacks this season.
The one path the Texans have in moving the ball tonight is through stud rookie running back Dameon Pierce. His ability to break tackles and pick up extra yards has made him the centerpiece of the Texans offense. An impressive 27% of his rush attempts have resulted in a first down, which ranks seventh out of 46 qualified running backs this season. I expect Houston to use him early and often against an Eagles defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run.
Plus, Philadelphia will be without 6-foot-6, 336-pound run stuffer Jordan Davis, who was placed on IR due to an ankle injury, making the matchup even easier for Pierce.
Betting Picks
It’s always tricky when handicapping such a big mismatch. The Eagles should have no problem beating the Texans but a spread as high as 14-points exposes bettors to a late-game backdoor cover. Plus, over 80% of the action and money has been on the Eagles, so the books will be rooting for the underdog here.
I think the sharp play would be on the under at 45.5.
The thing I’m most confident in about this matchup is that the Texans will struggle to put up points against the Eagles. They may be able to move the ball on the ground, at least while the score is close, but once they fall behind and are forced into a more pass-heavy game script, they will be playing into the strength of the Eagles defense.
On the flip side, the Texans’ inability to put up points will allow the Eagles offense to take their foot off the gas fairly early and simply run out the clock in what should be an easy win. The one foil to this game flow would be if the Texans defense were to slow down the Eagles offense early on, keeping this game close. That game script would also be favorable to the under.
As of Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET, 68% of the action is on the over, while 83% of the money is on the under. That seems to indicate the sharper action has been on the under.
I’m projecting this closer to 43.5 and would bet it down to 45.
Quickslip: Under 45.5 | Bet to 45
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