The Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings face off in the NFL Week 2 edition of Sunday Night Football on Sept. 14. Kickoff for SNF is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. Falcons vs Vikings will be broadcast on NBC.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Falcons (Vikings -3) with the game total set at 45. The Vikings are -165 moneyline favorites and the Falcons are +140 underdogs.
Let’s get into our Falcons vs Vikings predictions for Sunday Night Football, which include picks against the spread, the over/under and anytime touchdown player prop.
Falcons vs Vikings Predictions
- Falcons vs Vikings Spread Prediction: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
- Falcons vs Vikings Over/Under Pick: Over 44.5 (+100)
- Falcons vs Vikings Anytime Touchdown Prop: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown(-110)
Falcons vs Vikings Odds
- Spread: Falcons +3 (-105), Vikings -3 (-115)
- Over/Under: 45 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Falcons +140, Vikings -165
Odds via BetMGM
Falcons vs Vikings Against the Spread Prediction
After averaging just 4.2 yards per play against the Bears in the first half last week, the Vikings came alive in the second half as J.J. McCarthy improbably ended up winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. I am not convinced that suddenly cures all of the issues surrounding the Vikings offense.
The Falcons defense showed improvement in Week 1 and played well in a matchup against the Bucs' Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield had two touchdown passes that very few quarterbacks in the league can place as accurately as he did. Atlanta also forced Mayfield into a 10.5% turnover-worthy throw rate and finished the week ninth in pressure rate, a category they ranked 30th in a season ago.
The Atlanta offense also matches up well against a blitz-heavy attack from Brian Flores. Penix averaged 9.8 yards per attempt against the Tampa Bay blitz in Week 1 and wasn't sacked. Penix is not a quarterback who accepts many negative plays and that will pay dividends in sustaining drives tonight.
The Falcons also get back Darnell Mooney.
Mooney is one of the most underrated playmakers in the league at receiver, and he can undoubtedly win down the field if he is matched up in single coverage as he is likely to be with Drake London lining up on the other side of the formation.
Week 2 underdogs of 3 to 4.5 points in Week 2 after suffering a loss have covered at a 60% rate since 2003. Over the last six seasons, that number jumps up to an incredible 82.4% with a 14-3-1 record.
Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-115); Bet to +3
Falcons vs Vikings Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
While the Vikings have a better overall defense than the Falcons' Week 1 opponent (the Bucs), the way that these teams match up might actually favor Atlanta’s offense in Week 2.
That’s because Minnesota’s defense is built to rush the passer, blitzing at nearly three times the league average rate last season when they finished as the No. 1 passing defense by DVOA. What they don’t do as well is stop the run, which sets up well for the Falcons.
Atlanta’s offense has a star runner in Bijan Robinson, but the passing game relies on Michael Penix Jr., who is effectively a rookie after getting just three starts for Atlanta last
season. If the Falcons can move the ball, they’ll compel the Vikings offense to get aggressive and take some shots down field.
I don’t see the Falcons defense, who Brandon Anderson ranked 26th coming into the season, doing much to slow down Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and company. Minnesota put up 27 points against a better defense last week, and should be limited only if the game script lets them ease off the gas.
We’ve also seen some late line movement towards the under, giving us an even better price/line on the over, with the line dipping to 44.5 at even money on ESPN Bet.
Pick: Over 44.5 (+100)
Falcons vs Vikings Anytime Touchdown
After the first half of Monday Night Football, I'm guessing everyone was ready to give up on J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense entirely. Not me — I'm not putting too much stock in the first half of a player's NFL debut coming off a major injury.
McCarthy looked good in the second half in leading the Vikings to a win, and I expect him to be a serviceable QB for this offense going forward with Kevin O'Connell coaching him.
The Falcons allowed the most touchdowns to WRs last season, and playing in a dome should be a huge help to this passing game.
With a 3.5-point spread, the game should be close enough that the Vikings can throw the whole game, and even though Justin Jefferson only had seven targets in Week 1, he still had a 35% target share.
He's going to be the safety net for McCarthy all season long and the go-to guy in the red zone.
I have the true odds here around -110, making this a good bet.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+110)
