Packers vs Vikings Pick, Prediction: NFL Sunday Night Football (Week 17)
Action Network Design Team. Pictured: Jordan Love (left) and Justin Jefferson (right).
Packers vs Vikings Pick, Prediction: NFL Sunday Night Football (Week 17)
The latest Packers vs Vikings odds have the Vikings installed as 1-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 42.5. My Packers vs Vikings pick and prediction for Sunday Night Football, however, is an Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown.
Coming into the weekend, a loss on SNF wouldn't eliminate either team, but it would put their playoff chances at less than 5%, essentially making this an elimination game.
With a victory, the Packers' playoff chances jump to 64% (before Sunday's results) and 95% if they win out. Meanwhile, the Vikings would jump to approximately 50% with a win and a similar 95% win probability if they win out. The good news for Minnesota is the Cowboys barely held on against the Lions. As a result, if the 49ers and Eagles both win on Sunday, the Lions are locked into the No. 3 seed and would have nothing to play for in Week 18 against Minnesota.
Who will keep their playoff hopes alive in this SNF clash of 7-8 NFC North rivals? Let's take a closer look in my Sunday Night Football betting preview.
Packers vs Vikings Pick, Prediction
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Packers vs Vikings Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Vikings match up statistically:
Packers vs. Vikings DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 5 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 7 | |
| Rush DVOA | 19 | 9 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 30 | |
| Pass DVOA | 17 | 30 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 25 |
In my opinion, the best offseason hire by far was Brian Flores as defensive coordinator for the Vikings. Even after losing some veteran pieces from an extremely porous unit, Flores has transformed Minnesota into an above-average unit despite a lack of overall talent and star power. He has tremendous game plans each week depending on the opponent and has utilized the blitz at the league's highest rate to generate pressure, while also dropping eight with the highest frequency in the NFL. He has kept opposing quarterbacks on their toes and confused them into key mistakes.
Conversely, the Packers defense has continued to fold like a cheap tent and the expiration date might be up on coordinator Joe Barry, who has much more talent to work with than Flores. If you remove Green Bay's game against the Rams (who had to start Brett Rypien), they've statistically fielded the worst defense over the past 10 games. The Packers can't stop the run and have way too many blown coverages on the back end. On the season, they rank 25th in EPA per play but are trending even worse and once again won't have No. 1 corner Jaire Alexander, who will be suspended for going out to the coin toss against the Panthers.
Moving over to the other side of the ball, Jordan Love has shown flashes in his first season as a starter, but his play has been up-and-down as you'd expect. The skill position injuries haven't helped his growth, which will once again be a factor on Sunday night. It looks like Christian Watson won't suit up with several other receivers listed as questionable.
The Vikings have similar injury issues on the outside with TJ Hockenson on IR and wide receiver Jordan Addison listed as questionable. Addison's status is major. Without him, teams can simply double Justin Jefferson, making it extremely difficult for whoever is under center for the Vikings, which seems to change depending on the week. For this week, they will at least initially go with rookie Jaren Hall.
In the year of the backup quarterback, you never really know what you're going to get from a backup in his first start. I wasn't a huge fan of Hall coming out of BYU, but that doesn't mean he can't flash for a game or two. He does have some mobility and should be able to lean on the ground game some against Green Bay's run funnel defense.
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While both teams are fighting for their playoff lives this season, I don't think either could do much damage in the postseason. However, both are very intriguing long shots for next season. With Flores, the Vikings have a competent, well-schooled defense. They are also extremely well-coached on the offensive end with a great tight end, two elite receivers and one of the best tackle duos in the league. It's a shame Kirk Cousins got hurt or else the Vikings could make some noise in these playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Packers are a Brian Flores-type hire away from fixing the defense and competing next year if Jordan Love continues his development with a promising young group of receivers and tight ends. They are just too young and too bad on defense to make a serious run if they get in.
Packers vs. Vikings Prediction
In regards to this game, I make the line right around Minnesota -1 after adjusting for injuries, but it's certainly a difficult game to handicap with all of the injury uncertainty on both sides in addition to a rookie quarterback getting his first start. If the line gets back to +1.5, I do like the Packers as a teaser piece, getting them up over a touchdown.
Other than that, this game looks like a pass to me from a side and total perspective. I'm not really a props player, but I am betting on an anytime touchdown for Aaron Jones. The Vikings defense has started to show a few cracks against Jones, who looked like his old self last week after dealing with injuries for most of the season. With all of the injuries Green Bay is dealing with on the outside, I can see them leaning on Jones on the ground. Plus, Love may look to him early and often as an outlet when the Vikings blitz, which they do at a league-high 49% rate.
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We have someone on each side of this spread in our best bets for the game. Click here for those full breakdowns, but we'll tease you with a snippet of each below:
By Simon Hunter
Do you know how bad Green Bay’s defense is? Over the last seven weeks, the Packers have given up 20 or more points six times. The only team they held under was the Chiefs, who scored 19. Now, Green Bay will be without its top two cornerbacks against a Vikings offense that has moved the ball all season with car salesmen at quarterback.
This feels like a get-right spot for Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Jordan Love ranks in the middle of the pack against the blitz this season, but he doesn’t do well with teams that show multiple looks pre-snap and when he faces the same team twice. Love only put up 10 points against the Vikings earlier this season, and I see him struggling again.
Pick: Vikings -1 (-110)
While both receiving corps are banged up, the losses of T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison for Minnesota will undoubtedly hamper quarterback Jaren Hall's attempt to right the ship for this offense. Hall averaged 5.5 yards per attempt in the preseason this year, a far cry from the 8.1 that Kirk Cousins averaged against the Packers back in Week 8 when Minnesota won at Lambeau Field.
For the Packers offense, the return of a healthy Aaron Jones paid huge dividends last week against the Panthers. Jones racked up 135 total yards and clearly adds an explosive element this team desperately needs. Jones, especially in the receiving game, is the perfect counter against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the league (49%).
The wrong team is favored on Sunday night.
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-120)
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