Vikings vs Packers Best Bets: 4 Picks & Props for Sunday Night Football
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Vikings vs Packers Best Bets: 4 Picks & Props for Sunday Night Football
The NFL Week 17 New Year’s Eve slate concludes at U.S. Bank Stadium, and we have Vikings vs Packers best bets, picks & props for Sunday Night Football.
SNF odds have Green Bay as a 1-point underdog on the road while the game total sits at 42.5. Our staff has Vikings vs Packers picks for each side of the spread, plus a prop for Justin Jefferson to go over his receiving yards line. Click on a pick below to navigate Vikings vs Packers best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vikings vs Packers Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
By Simon Hunter
That’s right! We’re backing yet another Vikings QB as a home favorite. No, no, no. You’re taking this.
Minnesota is quickly becoming one of bigger public 'dogs of the week. The public loves Green Bay in this spot as the Packers come off their three-point road win in Carolina.
Do you know how bad Green Bay’s defense is? Over the last seven weeks, the Packers have given up 20 or more points six times. The only team they held under were the Chiefs, who scored 19. Now, Green Bay will be without its top-two cornerbacks against a Vikings offense that has moved the ball all season with car salesmen at quarterback.
This feels like a get-right spot for Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Jordan Love ranks in the middle of the pack against the blitz this season, but he doesn’t do well with teams that show multiple looks pre-snap and when he faces a same team twice. Love only put up 10 points against the Vikings earlier this season, and I see him struggling again.
I'm hoping this number flips to the Vikings being a 'dog by kickoff. Give me Minnesota in a blowout. I'd bet the Vikes up to -3.
Pick: Vikings -1 (-105) | Bet to -3
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These teams are heading in opposite directions to end the season. This is basically a playoff game, and I'm looking to back the better quarterback and the healthier offense.
While both receiving corps are banged up, the losses of T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison for Minnesota will undoubtedly hamper quarterback Jaren Hall's attempt to right the ship for this offense. Hall averaged 5.5 yards per attempt in the preseason this year, a far cry from the 8.1 that Kirk Cousins averaged against the Packers back in Week 8 when Minnesota won at Lambeau Field.
For the Packers offense, the return of a healthy Aaron Jones paid huge dividends last week against the Panthers. Jones racked up 135 total yards and clearly adds an explosive element this team desperately needs. Jones, especially in the receiving game, is the perfect counter against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the league (49%).
In this game we have one quarterback who is second in the NFL in EPA per dropback (expected points added) over his last seven games against a quarterback QB making his second career start without two of the team's best weapons.
The wrong team is favored Sunday night. I'd bet the Packers across zero to -1.
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-120)
By Cody Goggin
It’s tough to know which backup quarterbacks you can trust, especially in a big game like this. The entire basis for a handicap of this game revolves around how good you think Jaren Hall may be and after watching all of his snaps this season, including from the preseason, I’m less concerned for Minnesota than I was prior to watching this.
Hall was a fifth-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Coming out of BYU, Hall threw for 6,174 yards, 52 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions in 24 starts for the Cougars. Hall received the opportunity to start once this season against the Falcons in Week 9 before he was injured and Joshua Dobbs infamously mounted a comeback victory in his first game in Minnesota.
Hall is a mobile quarterback and chances are that you will see him running around and evading pressure a lot. Like most playmaking quarterbacks, Hall tends to invite pressure but is skilled at not turning these pressures into sacks.
Last season Hall was responsible for 30.3% of his pressures at BYU according to Pro Football Focus, which was the seventh-highest mark in the country. However, Hall managed to only take 12 sacks on the season and had the 15th best pressure to sack ratio among 87 QBs playing 304 snaps.
Green Bay ranks 30th in dropback success rate and 29th in EPA per dropback. Also, cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended this week after going rogue on the coin toss a weekend ago while fellow CB Eric Stokes is also out. These absences to an already weak Green Bay secondary will work in the favor of Hall. While he will be without one or two of his top weapons, he will still have Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has looked great since coming back from injury. Over the last two weeks he had 84 and 131 receiving yards on 10 targets in each game. I think that he will play a big role in this matchup as Hall appears to be a competent quarterback and will be able to get his best weapon plenty of opportunities.
I like looking at Jefferson to go over 76.5 yards in this game, a total I believe is suppressed too far by the fact that this is Hall’s second career start. I would play this up to around 82.5 and even higher if Addison is ruled out.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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We don't know exactly what we're going to get out of Hall as QB, but we can assume that it will be something similar to Dobbs or Mullens since he's getting the start over them.
Jefferson should get solid volume in this spot considering he got 10 targets in each of the last two weeks and he should be in line for an increased target share without T.J. Hockenson. The matchup here is a good one against a Packers pass defense that's well below average and has gotten worse over the past couple of weeks.
Jefferson has hit the over at this number in each of the two full games he's played since coming back from injury, and I think he hits it here. I would hit this line all the way up to 84.5 in this spot.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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