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How the Texans’ Missed Field Goal Massively Changed AFC South Odds

How the Texans’ Missed Field Goal Massively Changed AFC South Odds article feature image

The Houston Texans were on the verge of tying a wild game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on the final drive of the game. All they needed was a 58-yard field goal from a kicker who had already missed from 50 yards earlier in the game. Unfortunately for Texans bettors, Matt Ammendola only had 57.5 yards in his leg — his kick doinked the crossbar at the end of regulation, providing a dramatic finish to an important divisional showdown.

Jacksonville ended up covering the 1-point spread in the 24-21 win and cost bettors who wanted overtime for the total as 79% of all bets and 71% of the money was on the over (48). However, it’s nothing compared to how dramatically the missed field goal impacted the AFC South race, as well as Houston’s odds to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville’s 24-21 win gives them around a 75% chance to win the AFC South, according to the New York Times' playoff simulator. A loss would have dropped their chances to around 44%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars continue to be money in the bank away from Everbank Stadium. They’ve covered 10 straight, which is the best mark over the past 20 seasons.

As for Houston, their odds to capture the AFC South crown suffered a crushing blow. A win would have put them around 40% to finish atop the division, based on the simulator. Instead, they now have a mere 5% chance. Furthermore, although the Texans are more likely than not to reach the postseason (approximately 58%), they would have had a commanding 80% chance to do so with a win.

That's also reflected in the latest odds. DraftKings had the Jags listed as -250 favorites to win the division entering Week 12 with the Texans listed at +235 odds. After the win, the Jaguars' odds jumped to -1000 while the Texans are now +800.

To close the season, the Jaguars face the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Buccaneers, Panthers and Titans. The Texans have Broncos, Jets, Titans, Browns, Titans again, and Colts on their schedule to close the season.

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