The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) meet in one of the marquee games of Week 12 on Sunday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Chiefs are favored by -3.5 on the spread over the Colts (Chiefs -3.5), with the over/under set at 50.5 points. The Chiefs are -185 moneyline favorites while the Colts are +154 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 12 preview and Colts vs Chiefs prediction.
Colts vs Chiefs Prediction
- Colts vs Chiefs pick: Under 50.5 -112 | Play to 48.5
My Colts vs Chiefs best bet is the under. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs Chiefs Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50.5 -108o / -112u | +154 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50.5 -108o / -112u | -185 |
Colts vs Chiefs Week 12 Preview
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview: Colts to Embrace the Grind
The Colts come into this marquee matchup off a bye week, and that extra time to prepare will impact this matchup in multiple ways. Offensively, it's given them time to scheme against a Kansas City defense that has been stout at home.
For Indianapolis, if they are going to keep this game tight, they will have to run the ball heavily and control the clock. Fortunately, they'll have an excellent opportunity to do so as the Chiefs are 17th in yards per rush allowed and 23rd in EPA per rush allowed.
A run-heavy scheme will allow them to put together methodical drives, take the load off Daniel Jones, and most importantly, keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
Keeping Patrick Mahomes and company on the sidelines is critical, as that unit is motivated to get right in this matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview: Chiefs to Get Right at Home?
Above, I alluded to how the Chiefs are motivated to get right in this matchup. We should see Patrick Mahomes and the offense force the issue for the Chiefs, who have lost their last two games.
Since becoming the starting quarterback, Mahomes has never lost three games in a row in his career. If Kansas City is going to snap its skid, it's going to be on the arm of Mahomes.
The Chiefs rank fourth in passes per game, and the absence of Isaiah Pacheco will only force them to be more pass-heavy in this matchup. However, they are going against a Colts defense that ranks 12th in opponent completion percentage, yards per pass allowed, and sack rate.
That has all helped them attain their spot at eighth in EPA per pass allowed, and it has come mainly without two of their top defensive players, Charvarius Ward and the newly acquired Sauce Gardner.
With Xavier Worthy questionable for this matchup, the Colts have the potential to take away Rashee Rice and force someone else to beat them. So, while the motivation is high for Kansas City, the weight of the matchup may be higher.
Colts vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup has one of the highest totals on the slate, but the star power on these offenses has overshadowed the key factors of this total. We should see the Colts make a concerted effort to possess the ball, as they can control the trenches and grind away behind Jonathan Taylor.
That will force a motivated Mahomes to air it out against a Colts defense that is excellent and is only getting stronger. Expect this game to be a potential playoff preview as these teams battle in a tight, but low-scoring affair.
Take the under.
Pick: Under 50.5 -112
Spread
I lean towards the Colts on the spread.
Moneyline
Additionally, the Colts pulling off the upset is well within the range of outcomes.
Over/Under
I'm betting the under in this matchup.
