NFL underdogs are making history, as the big favorites suffered the worst against the spread (ATS) start of the Super Bowl Era. Eight weeks into the 2026 NFL season, being a big favorite has been anything but an advantage for bettors.
Through this period, NFL favorites of at least seven points are just 20-9 straight up (SU) and an even worse 6-20-3 ATS. The results have produced the worst ATS start for touchdown favorites in the Super Bowl era, while outright upsets have become a weekly occurrence.
In fact, at least one underdog of seven or more points has won outright in every week of the season, something the NFL hasn't seen in more than 50 years.
From the Cardinals' unlikely success as a massive underdog to the struggles of the league's biggest weekly favorites, the 2026 NFL season has been a nightmare for bettors backing the teams expected to win comfortably.
A Historic Run of NFL Upsets
For the first time since 1971, an NFL underdog of at least seven points has won outright in each of the first eight weeks of the season. This is just the third time the NFL has seen that happen in the Super Bowl era, joining the 1968 and 1971 seasons.
The 1971 season remains the gold standard for this particular trend. That year, at least one underdog of seven or more points won outright in all 14 weeks of the regular season, a record that will be difficult to match, even with the NFL's expanded schedule.
What makes the 2026 season especially unusual is that the big underdogs aren't just pulling off the occasional upset. They are consistently making life difficult for favorites against the spread.
Through eight weeks, favorites of at least seven points are just 6-20-3 ATS, covering only 23.1% of games with a decision. That is the worst ATS start for favorites of seven or more points through eight weeks in the Super Bowl era. The previous low came in 1988, and this year's ATS winning percentage is almost seven percentage points worse.
It's one thing for a massive favorite to win by a field goal or escape with a close victory. It's another for the biggest favorites on the board to consistently fail to cover, regardless of the opponent.
Cardinals Leading the Upset Charge
If there's one team that perfectly represents the struggles of big NFL favorites this season, it's the Cardinals. Through eight games, Arizona has three outright victories.
All three have come as underdogs of more than a touchdown, closing at +7.5 or higher. The Cardinals are the first NFL team since the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars in 1995 to win three games as underdogs of at least seven points within the first eight weeks of a season.
That 1995 comparison is particularly interesting because it also appears in another historical trend involving the NFL's biggest favorites this season. Arizona has turned games in which the betting market gave it little chance into outright victories, contributing to one of the most unusual starts for big underdogs in decades.
Second-Half Collapses for Big Favorites
The struggles of large favorites have been particularly pronounced after halftime. According to Action Network's Bet Labs database, which has tracked historical first-half and second-half betting lines for 22 years, favorites of at least seven points on the full game spread are just 8-21 ATS in the second half this season.
That is the worst second-half ATS start for these big favorites in the database's history. For perspective, those same teams are 15-13-1 ATS in the first half. The difference is significant.
Big favorites have actually performed slightly above .500 against first-half spreads, only to fall apart against the number over the final two quarters. From a betting profit standpoint, the second-half struggles are even more extreme. The losses for bettors backing big favorites in the second half are more than double the previous worst start in the 22-year Bet Labs sample.
Whether it's teams taking their foot off the gas with a lead, underdogs making late adjustments, or favorites simply failing to finish games, the second half has been where the biggest favorites have done the most damage to bettors.
Even Six-Point Favorites Can't Cover
The struggles aren't limited to teams laying a full touchdown. If you expand the sample to include favorites of six or more points, the results are nearly as historic. Through eight weeks, those favorites are 26-11 straight up and 10-24-3 ATS, covering just 29.4% of games with a decision.
Outside of the strike-shortened 1982 season, that is the worst ATS start for favorites of six or more points through eight weeks in NFL history. What makes that record even more remarkable is how few teams have been able to buck the trend. Of the 18 teams that have been listed as favorites of six or more points this season, only four have winning ATS records in those games.
| Team | ATS Record as 6+ Point Favorite |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | 2-1 |
| Steelers | 1-0 |
| Jaguars | 2-1 |
| Rams | 2-1 |
That's it. Only four of the 18 teams have managed to cover more than half their games when favored by six or more points. The rest of the league has contributed to one of the worst starts for sizable favorites in NFL betting history.
Survivor Pool Nightmare
There's been plenty of discussion about how difficult NFL survivor pools have been this season, and the numbers certainly support that narrative.
"This has been one of the most underdog driven seasons in modern NFL history from a Survivor perspective,” said Circa Sports director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson. “For the first time since 1971, at least one underdog of 7 or more points has won outright in every one of the first eight weeks.
"That constant pressure has repeatedly taken out the chalk. Double-digit favorites and the most popular picks have lost multiple times (Rams Week 6, Texans Week 7 and others earlier).
"In Circa Survivor alone, the field went from over 25,000 entries down to just 660 heading into Week 8, with only about 2.6% of the original field still alive. The big underdogs haven't just created occasional upsets; they've systematically punished the safest-looking picks and forced the remaining field into far more volatile decisions than usual."
One way to measure the struggles is to isolate the three biggest favorites by point spread each week, using moneyline odds to break any ties. These are the teams that survivor pool participants would typically consider among the safest options on the board.
Through eight weeks, those 24 selections have gone just 15-9 straight up. That means nine of the 24 biggest weekly favorites have lost outright.
The ATS results are even worse.
Those teams are 6-17-1 ATS, covering just 26.1% of games with a decision. Even more remarkable, the three biggest favorites have finished below .500 ATS in every single week of the season. The 6-17-1 ATS record is the second-worst start for the three biggest weekly favorites through eight weeks in the Super Bowl era.
The only season that was worse? Once again, 1995.
That's the same season the expansion Jaguars pulled off three outright wins as underdogs of at least seven points within their first eight games, a feat Arizona has now matched in 2026. The outright losses are just as historically significant. The nine losses by the three biggest weekly favorites through eight weeks are tied for the most in the Super Bowl era. For survivor players, that means the teams generally viewed as the safest choices have been losing outright at a historically high rate.
And for spread bettors, those same teams have failed to cover in all eight weeks as a group. Eight weeks into the season, the NFL betting market has produced a rare combination: big favorites are still winning more often than they lose, but they're struggling to cover at an unprecedented rate, while outright upsets continue to pile up every single week.
