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The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) and Baltimore Ravens (4-4) face off in NFL Week 9 on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Jaguars are favored by -9.5 on the spread. with the over/under set at 39.5. Jacksonville is a -510 favorite on the moneyline and Baltimore is a +390 underdog.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs Ravens prediction for Thursday Night Football.
Jaguars vs Ravens Prediction
- Jaguars vs Ravens pick: Jaguars Team Total Under 24.5
My Jaguars vs Ravens best bet is the under on Jacksonville's team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Jaguars vs Ravens Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -120 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -510 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -102 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
- Jaguars vs Ravens Spread: Jaguars -9.5, Ravens +9.5
- Jaguars vs Ravens Total: 39.5
- Jaguars vs Ravens Moneyline: Jaguars -510, Ravens +390
Jaguars vs Ravens Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Ravens Have the Ball
The Ravens didn’t just lose Lamar Jackson to a potentially season-ending thumb injury last week. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley also suffered a season-ending toe injury, which forced third-string undrafted free agent Joe Fagnano into the game with about 10 minutes left in the second quarter.
It went about as poorly as you’d expect.
Fagnano went 10-for-21 for 91 yards, no touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushing yards on three attempts. He posted a -0.57 EPA/dropback. There have been 213 QB games this season with at least 15 dropbacks, and that would rank as the 12th-worst single-game EPA/dropback performance of the year.
So yeah, the overall consensus that Fagnano might be one of the worst quarterbacks to make a start this season is completely fair. Cooper Rush still has the belt for me, but Fagnano’s debut was brutal.
- Sean Koerner's Live QB Power Rankings: Find Out How Each QB Impacts the Spread!
There’s throwing with anticipation, and then there’s throwing the ball so early your pass catcher barely realizes he’s being targeted — Fagnano was doing the latter at an alarming rate. He also has an unusual release, and there was basically no timing or chemistry with the starting offense.
The good news is he gets an actual week of practice knowing he’s the starter. That should at least allow the coaching staff, Fagnano and his pass catchers to get on the same page.
The bad news is it’s a short week, and Fagnano is dealing with an ankle injury that required heavy taping at practice. This is obviously the biggest source of uncertainty for the game.
The Jaguars being “only” around 10-point favorites can look a little light when you frame it as one of the better teams in football facing an injured UDFA making his first career start on a short week. If Jacksonville blows Baltimore out, nobody would be remotely surprised.
But in spots like this I always think it’s worth asking the opposite questions: What if the market is wrong? What would Baltimore have to do to actually keep this game close?
The first answer is probably to put Fagnano on the back burner as much as possible and lean on Derrick Henry.
Henry needs 35 rushing yards to pass LaDainian Tomlinson for seventh all time. Henry's talked about how much that would mean to him as Tomlinson was the running back he looked up to most during his teen years.
That matters because Henry is already the obvious centerpiece of the offense, and now there’s an added emotional layer to a game where Baltimore may need to lean on him more than usual. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if the Ravens sprinkled in some direct snaps or wildcat looks just to remove Fagnano from the equation entirely on a few plays.
The obvious problem is Jacksonville has arguably the best run defense in the NFL (1st in run defense DVOA). But there is one injury that I think could matter more than the market realizes.
Run-stuffing DT DaVon Hamilton, a 6-foot-4, 335-pound anchor in the middle of the Jaguars' front, suffered a season-ending quad injury against Indianapolis. His on/off splits are pretty wild.
The Jaguars have allowed 3.6 yards per carry with Hamilton on the field and 4.8 without him. They’ve allowed 3.8 yards per play with him and 6.9 without him, while their explosive-play rate jumps from 6% with Hamilton to 19% without him.
Obviously, those splits come with small-sample noise, so I’m not treating them like gospel. But stylistically, losing a massive interior run defender matters a lot more when the opponent’s entire survival plan may be handing the ball to Henry repeatedly.
I think Baltimore can at least try to stay run heavy early, even if Jacksonville stuffs a few of those attempts. The other obvious adjustment is getting Zay Flowers easy touches.
Fagnano and Flowers failed to connect last week, but with even a few days of practice I expect Baltimore to scheme up more high-percentage looks and simply get the ball in Flowers’ hands rather than asking Fagnano to consistently make difficult timing throws.
The larger goal should be avoiding obvious passing situations altogether. I could see Baltimore running on 2nd-and-long at a higher rate than normal, accepting some inefficient early down runs if it keeps Fagnano out of 3rd-and-9 situations where Jacksonville can tee off.
That leads into what I think the Ravens' ideal game looks like.
They don’t need Fagnano to suddenly become good. They need Henry to move the chains just enough, Flowers to generate a few easy completions, and the offense to bleed clock.
For a huge underdog, shortening the game is everything.
If Baltimore can manufacture a few long drives and keep Jacksonville’s offense on the sideline, it at least gives itself a chance to hang around much longer than people expect.
When the Jaguars Have the Ball
There’s obviously much less uncertainty for the Jaguars.
The offense led by Trevor Lawrence is playing at a very high level and is a huge reason why Jacksonville is 5-2. The Jaguars have also blown teams out badly enough this season that Lawrence hasn’t even attempted a pass in the fourth quarter of a couple games because the starters were already resting.
That is absolutely one of the possible outcomes tonight.
But Baltimore’s defense is good enough that I don’t think we should automatically assume Jacksonville scores at will simply because the Ravens are starting Fagnano. The Ravens rank 15th against the pass and 11th in overall DVOA.
They finally have Trey Hendrickson back after he missed a two-game stretch, and he may be the healthiest he’s been all season. He’s exactly the type of player who can create a drive-ending sack or pressure that matters enormously when you’re trying to keep a superior opponent from separating.
Baltimore has also gotten solid play from Nnamdi Madubuike and Mike Green, while still having veteran stars like Calais Campbell, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton. If Baltimore has any chance of making this uncomfortable, it probably comes through that side of the ball.
Another thing to monitor is Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten, who hasn’t practiced this week due to ankle/foot injuries and is a game-time decision.
If he sits, Chris Rodriguez Jr. should see more work, but Jacksonville loses some of the thunder/lightning element it has in that backfield. I’d also expect Rodriguez’s efficiency to take a hit with a larger workload, and he doesn’t give Jacksonville the same receiving dimension Tuten does.
So while Jacksonville is clearly the more trustworthy offense, there are at least a few reasons its scoring ceiling might be lower than the matchup looks at first glance.
Jaguars vs Ravens Prediction, Betting Analysis
The trickiest part of this game is obviously Baltimore’s offense with Joe Fagnano under center. That’s why almost everyone, including me, can easily picture Jacksonville blowing them out.
And I do like the overall under environment here.
The problem is the full-game total is already down to 39.5, which means we’ve moved below two key numbers in 40 and 41. If this were still 41.5 and Jacksonville’s team total were sitting around 25.5 or 26.5, I’d probably just take the full-game under.
At the current numbers, I’d rather isolate Jaguars Team Total Under 24.5.
The full-game market has already baked in a lot of the ugliness around Fagnano. But I think Jacksonville’s team total still carries a little more of the basic “Fagnano sucks, therefore Jacksonville rolls” logic, even though Fagnano has very little to do with how efficiently the Jaguars score.
And interestingly, the wide range of outcomes around Fagnano can help the Jacksonville under in either direction. If he’s every bit as bad as people fear, Jacksonville probably gets control of the game quickly.
But if the Ravens aren't offering much resistance offensively, the Jaguars have very little reason to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. They can lean on the run, shorten the game and win comfortably without needing to score 30+.
If Baltimore’s offense functions better than expected, that can help, too. Derrick Henry moves the chains, Zay Flowers gets manufactured touches, Fagnano avoids major mistakes, and Baltimore strings together enough long drives to control some time of possession and keep Trevor Lawrence on the sideline.
That also helps the Jaguars' team total under. The uncertainty around Fagnano is actually less of a problem for this specific bet than it is for the side or full-game total.
The most obvious way this loses is simply Jacksonville being too efficient and scoring 30+ anyway. That is very much in play and easily the cleanest case against the bet.
But I think the market may be discounting Baltimore’s defense a bit too much because all the attention is understandably on the QB situation.
The Ravens have enough talent and veteran leadership on that side to make Jacksonville work for points, and if Baltimore does keep this closer than expected, I think it’s much more likely to happen in a lower-scoring environment than by Fagnano suddenly trading touchdowns with Lawrence.
Twenty-four is a key team-total number so getting Under 24.5 matters. That’s ultimately why I prefer the Jaguars' team total under to the full-game under.
I like the overall under environment, but 39.5 already reflects a lot of it. Jacksonville Under 24.5 still gives me the key number and lets me fade the part of the market that I think may still be overreacting most to Fagnano starting.
Pick: Jaguars Team Total Under 24.5
