Jets vs Jaguars Odds, Prediction: Expert’s Thursday Night Football Pick

Jets vs Jaguars Odds, Prediction: Expert’s Thursday Night Football Pick article feature image

Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson.

  • The Jets are favored by 2.5 points tonight on Thursday Night Football.
  • Zach Wilson will start in place of the injured Mike White against Trevor Lawrence.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Jets vs Jaguars Odds

Thursday, Dec. 22
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Jets Odds
-115o / -105u
Jaguars Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Week 16 opens with us finding a Jets vs Jaguars pick on Thursday Night Football.

Both teams are in the playoff hunt, with New York looking for a wild-card spot and Jacksonville controlling its own destiny in the AFC South.

Let's break down the matchup and find a bet.

Jets vs Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Jaguars match up statistically:

Jets vs Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA86
Pass DVOA66
Rush DVOA177
Overall DVOA1928
Pass DVOA2232
Rush DVOA1614

When the Jaguars Have the Ball

Trevor Lawrence is in the midst of the best six-game stretch of his young career, and it really does look like he’s tapping into the potential we all knew had when he went No. 1 overall in last year’s draft. However, he could slow down this week thanks to a tough matchup against a very good Jets defense (sixth in DVOA) and potentially heavy rain throughout the game.

Left tackle Cam Robinson suffered a season ending knee injury last week, which means Walker Little is expected to start. Little has been a disaster in limited action this season. According to SportsInfoSolutions, he has a 10% blown block on the season. Anything over 4% would be considered poor, but 10% is exceptionally bad. I would not be surprised if he continues to struggle Thursday Night and it becomes an in-game talking point.

Right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Jawaan Taylor have been limited in practice, so they are names to keep an eye on for the final injury report. If either one or both of them are held out, it could make an already shaky offensive line even worse.

Quinnen Williams was able to get in a full practice, which means the Jets will likely be getting their stud lineman back and will put even more pressure on the Jaguars offensive line.

Bet Thursday Night Football at FanDuel

When the Jets Have the Ball

Mike White remains out due to his rib injury, which means Zach Wilson will get another start.

It’s an easy matchup for Wilson, facing a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and will also be without No. 1 overall pick Trevon Walker, who remains out due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 14. Wilson has yet to live up to his No. 2 overall draft capital, but he’s coming off a game where he flashed some of his untapped upside as he threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns and led the NFL with five “big time throws,” according to Pro Football Focus.

I still consider Wilson about a 1-1.5 drop off from White. This is a matchup where the Jets can get by with a strong performance by their defense and a run-heavy game plan, though, so I think this is a spot where the Jets can sneak by without needing Wilson to do too much.

Betting Picks

It’s no surprise to see the public hammering the Jaguars, with 76% of the action and 82% of the money having poured in on them as of Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET.

However, I think the Jets are offering slight value here. The Jets should be able to overwhelm an injured Jaguars offensive line, especially with Williams coming back. Considering there should be steady rain throughout this game, it could be a lower-scoring game that will be decided in the trenches.

The Jaguars will also be without Walker, which should make life a bit easier for Wilson in a game thatI think the Jets should be able to win without him needing to do too much.

I’m projecting this closer to Jets -2.5 and the most likely outcome of this game is the Jets winning by three. There is a chance either Scherff and/or Taylor ends up being held out, which would make me love the Jets even more in this game.

I wouldn't play the Jets any higher than -2.5.

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