Zach Wilson Player Prop Pick for Jaguars vs Jets on Thursday Night Football

Zach Wilson Pass Attempts

Wilson has cleared this total in just three of his eight games this season. He has five wins this season, and he's only cleared this total in one of those.

I'm on the Jets -1.5 tonight, and this prop correlates perfectly with that.

Weather will have an impact on the game and how both teams call plays. We should see steady rain and heavy winds that range from 15-20 mph and include 25-30 mph gusts.

In those conditions, the Jets probably don't want Wilson to drop back more than he has to. New York should be able to lean on its elite defense and run game to sneak away with a win.

The Jaguars rank last in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass, so Wilson might be more efficient than usual when he is able to throw.

We should see a lower volume of plays than usual tonight given the likely run-heavy game plans. I'm projecting Wilson for closer to 28.5 pass attempts tonight. He has a much lower floor, though.

In the event that the Jets get down big and are forced into a pass-heavy game script, we could see Joe Flacco, especially if Wilson turns the ball over multiple times. That possibility provides us some hidden insurance on this prop.