Jalen Hurts Player Props: Expert Fading Passing Total in Eagles vs Texans

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards

This prop might not be for the faint of heart.

Hurts has been lights out this season, and he should have his way with the Texans defense in the first half. However, he's only averaging 73 passing yards in the second half, which is the second fewest of 36 qualified quarterbacks. That's mainly because the Eagles typically have a big lead at halftime, which should be the case in this one.

The key here will be surviving the first half. I think this matchup could allow that. The Texans defense has been somewhat respectable against the pass, ranking 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA thanks to solid play from cornerbacks Steven Nelson, Derek Stingley Jr. and Desmond King.

However, Houston is dead last in DVOA against the run. The Eagles could build their big lead by running the ball, before keeping it safe by (you guessed it) running the ball more in the second half.

The Texans offense, meanwhile, is unlikely to score enough to keep up with Hurts and this Eagles offense for all four quarters.

I'm projecting Hurts for 222.5 passing yards tonight, and I think the game script and Texans run-funnel defense could result in him going much lower.

Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 235.5 Passing Yards

What We're Rooting For

Instead of sitting there while watching this game and thinking, "Boy, I hope Hurts doesn't torch this Texans defense," it's more about rooting for Miles Sanders to break off big runs early. We also would want the Texans to move the ball just enough through Dameon Pierce — while not scoring too many points, of course.

What would really help our cause would be if the Eagles score without the offense on the field. Root for Davis Mills to gift Philly a pick-six.

I'd also say there's a 15-20% chance that Gardner Minshew finishes this game as quarterback for the Eagles.