Jets vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Keep Fading Miami?

Jets vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Keep Fading Miami? article feature image

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Darnold

  • The New York Jets are small favorites relative to the Miami Dolphins' other opponents this season.
  • Our experts break down the betting odds and whether you can trust Sam Darnold and Co. to cover the spread.

Jets at Dolphins Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Jets -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

In a game only a bettor could love, the 1-6 New York Jets face the 0-7 Miami Dolphins. While both teams are at the bottom of the league standings, bettors like the Jets to cover the 3-point spread.

Should you follow the public and back the Jets?

Our staff breaks down the matchup including injuries, mismatches and a pick.

Jets-Dolphins Injury Report

The Dolphins placed cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) on injured reserve, and corner Ken Webster (ankle) has yet to practice, potentially making them even more thin in the secondary.

The Jets have more than 12 players on their injury report as either limited or missing practice. At this point, it might be easier for them to just tell us who did practice. They’re expected to be without linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) for a few weeks, which isn’t great since fellow linebackers Blake Cashman (shoulder) and Neville Hewitt (neck/knee) have all missed practice.

Corner Trumaine Johnson is also listed on their injury report (DNP on Wednesday and Thursday) because of his ankles, as in both of his ankles. I can’t say that’s surprising since he’s allowed a 76% catch rate and 103.8 passer rating when targeted this year, per Pro Football Focus. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Le’Veon Bell vs. Dolphins Linebackers

The Jets are a lowly 1-6 and have been incapable of getting anything going on offense, but I like this spot for Bell. For the season, he has an elite 91.4% snap rate and is tied for No. 7 with 21.6 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game.

patriots-vs-jets-odds-picks-predictions-monday night football-2019
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Le’Veon Bell

Bell has some upside, and that’s especially the case against the winless Dolphins.

It’s true that the Dolphins have had to deal with lots of negative game script, which has inflated their opponent rushing numbers, but they’ve allowed a league-high 141.7 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

Not all of that can be explained away because they’ve lost all their games. They’ve lost in part because they can be run on easily.

They rank 30th in running back rushing success rate allowed with a 57% mark. And they’re even worse in pass defense against running backs, who have a league-high 68% receiving success rate against the Dolphins.

No team has allowed more yards per target to opposing backs than the Dolphins have with their mark of 8.3.

Although they have a promising player in Raekwon McMillan, the Dolphins have big issues in the middle of their defense. Collectively, their linebackers have very poor PFF run defense and coverage grades:

  • Jerome Baker: 456 snaps | 48.9 run defense | 57.0 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 343 snaps | 40.2 run defense | 50.0 coverage
  • Raekwon McMillan: 239 snaps | 73.7 run defense | 50.5 coverage

With such a unit, it’s not a surprise that the Dolphins are No. 31 with a 10.8% run defense DVOA and No. 32 with a 55.2% pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against running backs.

Even with a poor offensive line, Bell is No. 5 with an 85.9 PFF Elusive Rating and has the requisite skill to produce against probably the league’s worst defense.

This is the first time the Jets have been favored since Week 1, when Bell had his best performance of the season with 92 yards and a touchdown. With positive game script, Bell could rack up 120 yards and a touchdown. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Jets -5
  • Projected Total: 42

Expert Pick

PJ Walsh: Jets -3

This is among the worst matchups of the NFL season so far, but that doesn’t mean it’s not providing a solid betting opportunity.

Not only does our Bet Labs tool power The Action Network’s Pro System, but it also allows users to analyze historical data in order to find profitable trends and built their own winning systems.

My personal portfolio of systems is lighting up the Jets in this matchup, including a very simple angle that fades teams the week after going on the road to play on Monday Night Football.

Think about it — teams playing on Monday night are already at a disadvantage for their following game due to the short week, and being on the road means they have to spend some of that time traveling back home.

Teams in this spot, like Miami, are just 106-140-8 (43.1%) against the spread (ATS).

And it’s not only historical angles that like the Jets in this matchup. The Action Network’s Sean Koerner points out above this “true line” is Jets -5 via his power ratings, which represents plenty of value through the key number of -4 and onto the most important number in football betting, -3. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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