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The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) and Miami Dolphins (0-2) will meet in Week 3 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread, with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Kansas City is a -600 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Miami is listed as a +450 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Dolphins predictions and NFL Week 3 picks for Sunday, September 27.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction, Pick
- Chiefs vs Dolphins pick: Under 45.5 (-115)
My Dolphins vs. Chiefs best bet is the total to stay Under 45.5 points, with the best price currently available at bet365. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds for NFL Week 3
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 +100 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -600 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -120 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +450 |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Preview
Chiefs Betting Preview: Historical Trends Say to Fade Mahomes
The Chiefs are traveling to Miami on the heels of a grueling overtime win over the Colts on Sunday Night Football.
If there is a spot for Patrick Mahomes to look sluggish, this is it.
Historically, Mahomes is the exact opposite of an ATM when laying double digits; he is an abysmal 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in his career as a double-digit favorite.
Mahomes tends to win these games outright, but the Chiefs rarely cover the big number.
With potential fatigue settling in, it wouldn't be shocking to see an out-of-sync, lethargic performance from the Kansas City offense early on.
Dolphins Betting Preview: Possibly the Worst Roster I've Ever Seen
The spot absolutely screams to bet the Dolphins +10.5.
The Chiefs are playing on short rest while the Dolphins are playing their home opener — and Hard Rock Stadium is explicitly angled to bake the visiting sideline in the blistering Florida humidity.
However, I simply cannot put my money on the Dolphins. This might legitimately be the worst NFL roster I have ever seen from top to bottom. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised given our Brandon Anderson ranked them near last in everything during the preseason: 31st in offense, 32nd in defense, 26th in coaching.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's playcalling is uninspired and not giving Malik Willis any chance to succeed, and their special teams unit is a disaster.
The Dolphins aren't a real NFL franchise right now.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Pick, Betting Analysis
Since I cannot stomach backing the Dolphins, my favorite bet on the board is Under 45.5.
Since Tyreek Hill departed, the Under is 41-24 when the Chiefs are favored.
Everything that makes Miami an appealing underdog — the heat, the fatigue, the flat spot for KC — lends itself perfectly to an Under.
The Chiefs will likely build a modest lead, take their foot off the gas, and methodically bleed clock in the second half while the Dolphins lack the offensive talent to push this game into higher-scoring territory.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Best Bet
- Under 45.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs Dolphins Weather
Chiefs vs Dolphins Betting Trends
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