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The Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) and Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) face off in NFL Week 3 today. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites on the spread, with the over/under set at 42.5 points. Cincinnati is a -190 moneyline favorite while Pittsburgh is a +160 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bengals vs Steelers predictions for this key Week 3 AFC North clash.
Bengals vs Steelers Prediction
- Bengals vs Steelers pick: Steelers +3.5 (-112) | Steelers Moneyline (+160)
My Bengals vs. Steelers best bet is split between Pittsburgh to cover the spread (+3.5) and win outright on the moneyline (+160), with the best price tags currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Bengals vs Steelers Odds
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -190 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +160 |
Bengals vs Steelers NFL Week 3 Preview
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview: Lucky Start
The Bengals are 2-0, but they easily could be 0-2. I track luck metrics closely, and Cincinnati has been incredibly fortunate so far this season.
According to our NFL Luck Rankings, the Bengals clock in as the third-luckiest team in the NFL behind the Vikings and Eagles.
In Week 1, the Bengals secured a win against Tampa Bay largely due to Baker Mayfield fumbles and a +22 EPA swing from turnovers. In Week 2, the Bengals were outgained 374 to 260 by the Texans, but Cincinnati was bailed out by Houston's coaching malpractice and the absence of Nico Collins.
The most glaring issue for the Bengals defense is their linebackers and safeties in coverage.
Cincinnati cannot cover 12-personnel (two tight ends). Last year, the Bengals were the worst in NFL history against it, allowing 6.2 yards per play and ranking dead last in EPA per pass against heavy sets.
If an offense puts two tight ends on the field, Cincinnati's nickel can't stop the run, forcing them into base packages where its linebackers get roasted in coverage.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: The Box Score Doesn't Tell the Full Story
The Steelers' defense is entirely legit — their defensive front can generate consistent interior pressure and will give Cincinnati's offensive line problems.
Offensively, Aaron Rodgers has looked horrendous, but the box score doesn't tell the whole story.
Rodgers was pushing the ball downfield last week against the Patriots — his 8.8 average depth of target was a massive jump from last year — but he was crippled by drops from DK Metcalf and a missed pass interference call.
We might also see some injury upside for Pittsburgh, with guys like Joey Porter Jr. and Michael Pittman potentially returning to the lineup.
Most importantly, nobody in the NFL runs 12-personnel more than the Steelers, and the Bengals struggle against opposing tight ends.
Bengals vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am backing the Steelers +3.5 and playing them on the moneyline in my underdog parlay. I make this line slightly under a field goal, so grabbing the full +3.5 is valuable.
The Steelers are perfectly constructed to exploit the Bengals' biggest defensive weakness. They will trot out two tight ends, get the ball out quickly, and let Pat Freiermuth (who is a great prop look for Over 34.5 receiving yards) carve up Cincinnati's linebackers over the middle.
The Bengals' 2-0 start is a total mirage. I think we'll see Pittsburgh's defense do enough to win this game outright at home.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-112) | Steelers Moneyline (+160)
