If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 3 on Sunday, September 27.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 3.
NFL Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Bengals vs. Steelers
Last week for the Bengals, I took WR Tee Higgins as I rightly assumed he would get a massive target share with the Texans so concerned with stopping WR Ja’Marr Chase.
I was half right because Higgins led the Bengals with 10 targets, but ultimately, it was Chase who scored the touchdowns. That’s the fire you play with when betting Bengals TD scorers because you know QB Joe Burrow is always mindful of where Chase is on the field.
Still, at this price, I have to keep betting Higgins to score his first TD of the season. Through two games, Higgins leads the team in target share while also edging out Chase in yards per route run and first-read targets.
If Higgins caught one of those TDs against the Texans, we likely aren’t getting these odds today. I would also entertain laddering this for 2 TDs at +1400.
The weak spot on the Bengals defense in each of the last two years has been over the middle. Whether that’s a slot WR or a starting TE, these are the spots you try and find throughout the schedule because the Bengals have gotten torched on that front.
Last week, we took TE Dalton Schultz to score at +250, but it didn’t hit. The encouraging part was the fact that QB C.J. Stroud peppered him with targets and the Bengals couldn’t really stop it.
Until the Bengals correct this issue, I think we have to keep taking the opposing TE1 — and today that’s TE Pat Freiermuth at +375.
Freiermuth scored in Week 1 against the Falcons, and then didn’t do much in Week 2 after the Patriots defense shut the door.
Through two games, he’s ran three times the amount of routes as TE Darnell Washington and saw double the amount of targets. If you recall the primetime game these teams played last year, it was a TE TD bonanza with five TDs scored by the position.
VERDICT: Tee Higgins +185 | Pat Freiermuth +350
Download the Action Network app now for more picks and analysis!
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Patriots vs. Jaguars
We got burned by the Jaguars’ playcalling last week.
The Jags got down to the 1-yard line and instead of letting QB Trevor Lawrence launch himself for a TD, they took the safe approach with RB Bhayshul Tuten.
I can’t be mad at that choice, but I still think when we see odds of +300 or better for a Lawrence TD, we take it. He scored nine TDs last year, and had Tuten not scored in Week 2, I’m confident head coach Liam Coen would’ve called the QB sneak.
The Patriots haven’t had to face a rushing QB threat through two weeks with Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers, but with Lawrence, this is a matchup where it lines up with his skillset.
The Patriots defense has played man coverage at a top-five rate in both games this year, and they probably won't stack the box to stop the run because the Jaguars actually pose a decent threat with the pass.
It’s been a rough start for WR Romeo Doubs as a Patriot, but they didn’t pay him a bunch of money this offseason just to be a decoy or play second-fiddle to WR DeMario Douglas.
As a Packer, Doubs led the team in end-zone targets and receiving touchdowns last year. Through two games with the Patriots, he has been stuck with unfortunate matchups or circumstances.
The Pats offense couldn’t get anything going in Week 1 against Seattle, and then Week 2 was a defensive blowout where New England played with a lead the whole game and didn’t really have to throw.
This is a matchup where the Patriots are going to need Doubs to win against man coverage and be an end-zone threat like he was in Green Bay, because I expect the Jaguars offense to bounce back and put up some points.
If Drake Maye can recapture the magic with his deep ball, I think he could find Doubs on a deep TD score. The former Packer leads the team in aDOT through two games as well.
VERDICT: Trevor Lawrence +310 | Romeo Doubs +300
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Chargers vs. Bills
Two straight weeks of absolutely dismal offensive performances by the Chargers, and now they are going on the road to face a tough Bills squad.
Everyone is down on the Chargers, but I think the odds have swung too far in the TD market, so I'm going with WR Ladd McConkey. I know he’s dealing with a rib injury, but reports say he’s recovering and already practiced in full from Wednesday through Friday.
This is mostly picking on a bad line (+225) — if McConkey is practicing in full and starting to get over the injury, he definitely shouldn’t be priced longer than +200 to score a TD, especially facing a Bills team that is bottom-five in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns to wide receivers.
Most of the Bills' TD prices are nuked because of their scoring output through two games.
Josh Allen is throwing the ball with confidence, but I think the Chargers defense will be in kitchen-sink mode to avoid going 0-3, and that urgency could negate some of the Bills' chances to put up mega points.
Another reason to be cautious is WRs DJ Moore and Keon Coleman only logged limited practices on Friday and either one or both could be inactive, further complicating things.
If Coleman (+400) is active, he’s who I would choose because he’s running the most routes of any Bills pass-catcher while also playing the most snaps of any Buffalo wide receiver through two games. If he doesn’t suit up, then I’ll pass on Bills this week.
VERDICT: Ladd McConkey +225 | Keon Coleman +425 (If he’s active)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Jets vs. Lions
We grabbed Garrett Wilson last week and he delivered for us, so we’re running it back because he draws a prime matchup against the Lions.
Detroit’s secondary has been ravaged with injuries, and even knowing that Wilson gets the majority of targets, there might not be much the Lions can do about it. Through two games, the Lions have allowed six passing TDs (31st) while also ranking last in pass yards allowed.
The Lions can still push the Jets offensively to the point where New York may need to keep pace in a trailing game script. So, as long as sportsbooks are offering a WR1 at +200 against this Detroit defense, I’m going to bet it.
The Lions offense is par for the course.
We know they can move the ball at will and will feature heavy doses of RB Jahmyr Gibbs or WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Oddsmakers and projections know this, too, so looking for value on the Detroit side isn’t easy, but I think we go for the WR3 in this offense in Isaac TeSlaa.
The funny thing about TeSlaa is he really only has one role in this offense, and that’s to catch touchdowns. The Lions almost never target him between the 20s, but that's why we look for the TD prop.
Last season, TeSlaa was tied with St. Brown with 11 end-zone targets. To put that in perspective, TeSlaa had 27 total targets all season.
With over 40% of his career targets going to the end zone, we almost have to take a shot on TeSlaa when he’s +425.
VERDICT: Garrett Wilson +200 | Isaac TeSlaa +425
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Texans vs. Colts
We’ve taken Colts TE Tyler Warren in each of the first two games, and he scored in both.
If it’s not broken, why fix it?
Warren may as well be the WR2 in the Indy offense. He’s playing an average of 90% of snaps while running a route on 89% of dropbacks.
Unless it's a designed run play for RB Jonathan Taylor, Warren is running downfield to make a play. Through two games, he’s seen three red-zone targets, and we finally got to see the big man run the ball after he got a three-yard carry against K.C.
The Texans defense should pose problems to the Colts' passing game in general, but with how much Warren will be on the field, I can’t pass on him when he’s +220 or better.
At +245, Warren is the only Colt showing value for me this week.
The Texans are expected to be without WR Nico Collins again, and that means the Texans passing offense will likely run through TE Dalton Schultz again.
Schultz saw 14 targets in Week 2, but once the Texans got inside the red zone, it was WR Xavier Hutchinson getting the looks. Hutchinson saw two end-zone targets in Week 2 and ultimately ran the most routes of any Texan against the Bengals.
Basically, we’re getting the WR1 (by default) for the Texans at +320, which seems off since we’ve watched the Colts defense get shredded through two weeks by opposing quarterbacks.
With 15 targets through two games, this could be the game where Hutchinson gets a touchdown.
VERDICT: Tyler Warren +245 | Xavier Hutchinson +330
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
This is my least-favorite game for TD scorers in Week 3.
The value is sparse on both sides. If you were able to get a starter on the 49ers last week at decent odds to score a TD against Miami, congrats because any team facing the Dolphins going forward is likely to be mega-steamed.
The Chiefs have four players with less than +200 odds, which means you won’t find much value at the top of the oddsboard.
If you wanted to take a flier on WR Tyquan Thornton (+410) or RB Emmett Johnson (+350), I wouldn’t be against it, but just know you’re getting really thin value on Thornton and a negative edge for Johnson at those current odds.
I’ll pass on Chiefs for Week 3 — hopefully we can find better value when they visit the Raiders next week.
It’s been pretty bleak for Dolphins TD scorers through two games — the only player showing value for me is WR Malik Washington at +310.
It’s not a bet I’m in love with, but he checks a lot of boxes to be considered. He’s running the most routes of any Dolphin, leads the team in targets per route run and deep targets. He has WR1 numbers/metrics, but when you have QB Malik Willis throwing the rock, it does cap some of the upside.
Willis' only passing touchdown this season came on a broken play in garbage time to Ryan Miller, so try to keep your expectations in check.
VERDICT: Pass on Chiefs | Malik Washington +310
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Seahawks vs. Commanders
I’m not expecting fireworks from the Commanders offense, but I think there's a sneaky upside to taking QB Marcus Mariota to score a TD. Dating back to his days as a Titan, Falcon, or even as a Commander, we’ve seen Mariota use his legs in the red zone to score touchdowns.
Part of the reason why I feel much better taking Mariota to score a TD than throw for one is because his upside as a passer is quite limited.
Even against modest defenses, Mariota usually tops out with two passing TDs, at best. Now he’s facing the Seahawks, who’ve only allowed two passing TDs through two games and have forced four interceptions.
If you want to take a flier on TE Ben Sinnott at +1600, that’s a great long shot since both passing TDs allowed by the Seahawks were to TEs, but if you’re giving me Mariota at +700 to score, that’s enough of a lottery ticket for me.
Speaking of getting burned by TE TDs, what is going on with the Commanders?
Through two games, they rank last in defensive DVOA against TEs with four TDs allowed to the position (two for Dallas Goedert, two for Jake Ferguson), and the bleeding doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon.
The problem with betting Seahawks TD scorers (much like last year) is the passing game is so heavily dedicated to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (44% target share through two games) that if the Seattle scores even once TD with JSN, it can likely park the bus and make Mariota beat them.
But if the TE TD trend continues, that means TE AJ Barner is the guy we want to bet in this one. He hasn’t been targeted much through two games, but he could see an uptick in opportunity with QB Sam Darnold back under center.
Barner did ultimately score a “Tush Push” TD in Week 2, and now he faces the Commanders, the team he scored his last rushing TD against. The latter fact isn’t worth dwelling on, but the fact that he's still getting goal-line carries and running double the routes gives him the edge over TE2 Elijah Arroyo (+950).
VERDICT: Marcus Mariota +750 | AJ Barner +350
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Panthers vs. Browns
The Browns were able to squeak out a victory in Week 2 even though the offense had moments of looking completely inept with QB Deshaun Watson.
The box score may say different, but the eye test showed that Watson is still hesitant to push the ball downfield. I want to gouge my eyes out every time I see Watson throw to his receiver just before the first-down marker. It’s awful football!
I have avoided Watson TD props for the most part as I figured he would get hurt or get booed out of the stadium by this point, but in this matchup against the Panthers, this is where we finally take the plunge and bet on him to score a TD.
The Panthers' run defense has been an issue this season, and while Falcons didn’t manage any rushing TDs in Week 2, that was more cause-effect with starting QB Cooper Rush.
Watson has 15 carries through two games, and he still has enough athleticism to run play-action and call his own number inside the 10-yard line. At +330, I’ll back Watson purely as a TD bet.
How is Darren Waller still a thing in 2026? From an R&B career to catching touchdowns for the Dolphins and Panthers, the tight end has shown that he can still get open in the red zone, steal your girl, and be a huge end-zone target for QB Bryce Young.
I wanted to look elsewhere to the likes of WR Jalen Coker or even TE Tommy Tremble, but it’s Waller who's been getting those looks. He scored twice in Week 2 against the Falcons and now has eight TDs over his last 11 games played.
It’s hard to argue with that level of production, especially since he's been mostly catching passes from Bryce Young or Tua Tagovailoa.
The other thing factoring into why I like Waller is the Browns defense has been a bit all over the place. In Week 1, they played zone at a top-five rate, and then in Week 2, they played the most man coverage. The one part that was consistent was their use of single-high safety, which they ranked top-five for both games.
If the Browns continue showing single-high looks in Week 3, that bodes well for Waller, who has seen a decent target rate when seeing single-high with both Carolina and Miami.
If you prefer Coker in this spot, that’s my second-favorite Panther in this game — but at +400, we’ll take Waller to score again.
VERDICT: DeShaun Watson +390 | Darren Waller +400
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Titans vs. Giants
I kind of wanted to go back to my guy TE Gunnar Helm because I bet on him in both of the Titans’ games so far this season, but he still hasn't scored.
This time, I wanted to get a good “REVENGE GAME” angle and take slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson to score a TD.
Now, his time as a Titan has been underwhelming to say the least, but Robinson was their main offseason acquisition to give QB Cam Ward a safety blanket. So far, it’s yielded seven targets for 47 receiving yards. Not exactly screaming “target machine.”
Some of that could be attributed to the Eagles' pass defense, but the Giants secondary is nowhere close to that level, and Robinson would likely see a lot of coverage from slot corner Dru Phillips, who has graded out poorly in coverage through two games, according to PFF.
I’m not sure which Giants receiver is going to beat the Titans on a bomb downfield, but I do know with QB Jameis Winston under center, the downfield throws will be abundant.
To his credit, Winston isn’t afraid to push the ball up the seams, and I think the WR we want to target here is rookie Malachi Fields at +550.
My Touchdown Show co-host Sean Koerner loves Fields' upside this week. Part of the reason why he’s investing in him for this matchup is he had a 76% routes run rate as the WR3 in this offense and should be a great deep-ball target for some of those “YOLO” throws coming from Winston.
At +500 or better, let’s align with “The Oddsmaker."
VERDICT: Wan’Dale Robinson +450 | Malachi Fields +550
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
I don’t think we have to overcomplicate this.
If Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka is over +200 and QB Baker Mayfield is playing without injury, you bet this against any NFL defense. Egbuka leads the team with two end-zone targets and caught the lone passing touchdown from Mayfield through two games.
I hate to point to circumstance, but the Bucs have been very unlucky through two games with the lost fumbles in Week 1 and then a fourth-quarter monsoon in Week 2. I think Mayfield and the Bucs' passing game will bounce back in this one. Also, Mayfield will need to get the ball out quickly while facing the Vikings' heavy blitz.
On the Vikings side, I’ve been pretty bullish on taking WR Justin Jefferson when he’s +185 or better. But for this game, they have shaded his TD odds down to the +150 range, which is a thin value.
If you wanted to use Jefferson as a TD parlay piece, I would be ok with that, but I think this is the time where we go long-shot hunting — and that points to TE2 Josh Oliver at +750.
Although he’s known primarily as a blocker, Oliver can be a focal point for the Vikings, especially when they get to red zone. He’s only run 22 routes through two games, but the wild part is he’s been targeted on five of them.
Basically, if he’s on the field, there’s a very high chance Oliver sees targets, which is all we can ask for when taking a +750 TD prop.
It’s a boom-or-bust pick, but he scored four TDs last year and may need to be on the field even more if the Bucs continue to blitz at a 42% rate.
VERDICT: Emeka Egbuka +235 | Josh Oliver +750
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Cardinals vs. 49ers
If this is your first time reading my NFL Anytime TD preview, welcome aboard.
Now, if you’ve been here before and you’ve gotten to the Cardinals section, you can just skip the writeup below because you already know I’m betting on Trey McBride to score a TD at +200.
For the newbies, even in a game where the Cardinals eventually got trounced by the Seahawks, QB Jacoby Brissett still made it a point to target McBride THREE straight times inside the five-yard line to get their only TD of the game.
At this point, it’s just silly how much of Arizona's offense is built around its TE. McBride may finish the year with 30+ end-zone targets (last year’s leader Davante Adams had 27).
Over a 16-game sample with Brissett at QB, McBride has 12 TDs, averaging 10.3 targets per game, and has 17 end-zone targets. To put that in perspective, he had 17 end-zone targets TOTAL in his first 54 games without Brissett.
We’re getting the best TE in the NFL priced at +200. I will run this into the ground until the odds shift.
It’s hard to find a weakness with the 49ers offense when everyone is healthy. Attrition may eventually catch up to them, but when everyone’s healthy, the TD value isn’t really there for the likes of WR Deebo Samuel (+165) or TE George Kittle (+170).
You have to start to consider long shots, and TE2 Luke Farrell is starting to catch my eye. He played more snaps than Kittle in Week 2 while only running two fewer routes in a blowout win over the Dolphins.
These odds may not have caught up to his role in the offense because someone like Jake Tonges would typically be priced in the +700ish range, like he was in Week 1 against the Rams. In this instance, we’re getting the Tonges replacement but at +1200.
I am also of the opinion that the 49ers may still be easing Kittle back into the lineup after offseason Achilles surgery. Farrell’s role isn’t going to see much downswing quite yet.
VERDICT: Trey McBride +200 | Luke Farrell +1200
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Raiders vs. Saints
It's anyone guess how healthy Raiders TE Brock Bowers is.
Is he 80%? 90%? Do his knees crack when he crouches now?
What I do know is Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said he looks great after the meniscus surgery. If Bowers is back to even 80%, that’s better than any Raiders pass-catcher on the roster.
While I’m more of a Trey McBride guy, I don’t think it’s farfetched to say Bowers is a top-three TE in the NFL and will likely be given the McBride treatment (10+ target spam) upon return to the lineup.
This bet is more about me trying to get ahead of the market — if Bowers scores this week, we might not see his TD odds above +200 again. Buy the dip!
I will also be going back to WR Devaughn Vele for the Saints in Week 3.
We weren’t sure of how much Vele would be used in this offense entering the season, but so far, he’s run the most overall routes in the NFL through two weeks. With an 83% route participation, that’s on par with some WR1s like Terry McLaurin or DK Metcalf.
Now, this isn’t me saying Vele is better than his teammate WR Chris Olave (+165), but given how much they’re on the field together and both being targeted in the end zone (two end-zone targets each), there shouldn’t be as much of an odds discrepancy between the two.
VERDICT: Brock Bowers +240 | Devaughn Vele +320
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Ravens vs. Cowboys
It hasn’t resulted in touchdowns yet, but I think people are sleeping on Cowboys WR3 Ryan Flournoy. He’s seen 10 targets through two games, and I fully expect the Ravens to sell out and try to prevent big plays from WR CeeDee Lamb and WR George Pickens.
Part of why I expect that from the Ravens is they’ve been changing their looks on defense and using a significantly higher amount of two-high safety this year (63%), compared to the last two seasons of the John Harbaugh era (41%).
Now, two games isn’t a huge sample size, but if the Ravens continue to show those coverages again in Week 3, one of the main beneficiaries for the Cowboys is likely Flournoy, who has seen his targets per route run and yards per route run increase when seeing those defenses.
With this game being played in Brazil, we may also see some blown coverages by both defenses leading to big plays. After scoring four TDs last year in a reduced role, I’ll take a shot that Flournoy gets his first TD of the year.
I’ll be upfront: I almost passed on Ravens TD scorers entirely.
Related Articles
The Cowboys defense (or lack thereof) is so bad sportsbooks can’t really offer an opposing starter at better than +200 because that player would get FLOODED with bets. Hence, the reason why TE Mark Andrews or WR Rashod Bateman are both at +150 or lower.
Coupled with RB Derrick Henry being a battering ram near the goal line, the only option I entertained is … his backup. RB Justice Hill is a pretty serviceable backup overall and is typically the pass-catching back on third down.
The possibility of a Ravens offensive massacre is certainly on the table, which could lead to garbage-time TDs. Or, there's also a non-zero chance the Cowboys offense comes out firing early and puts Baltimore on its heels, creating a pass-heavier script.
We likely need a game script that favors offense on either side (this game has the highest total of the week).
I’ll take a swing on Justice to prevail!
VERDICT: Ryan Flournoy +400 | Justice Hill +600
Click here to return to the table of contents.
