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The New England Patriots (1-1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) square off in Week 3 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread, with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Jacksonville is a -158 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New England is listed as a +134 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Jaguars predictions for this Week 3 AFC clash.
Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction
- Patriots vs Jaguars pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
My Patriots vs. Jaguars best bet is Jacksonville to cover the spread (-2.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Patriots vs Jaguars Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +100 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +134 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -158 |
Patriots vs Jaguars NFL Week 3 Preview
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Mayeday! Mayeday! Mayeday!
The Patriots are coming off a 20-3 win over the Steelers, but this is a very banged-up football team. They are missing A.J. Brown, and now their best offensive lineman, Michael Onwenu, is joining the star wideout on injured reserve.
That forces Greg Van Roten into the lineup, and he was terrible in pass protection last week against the Steelers. The Patriots also have defensive injuries piling up at safety, corner, and on the edge.
The biggest concern, however, is Drake Maye.
The MVP runner-up is completely shook right now, hesitating in the pocket and terrified of throwing interceptions.
Maye has posted a negative EPA on dropbacks in six straight games dating back to the playoffs. Specifically, he has shown very little ability to diagnose and beat Cover-6, a glaring weakness he failed to correct over the offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview: The Schematic Advantage
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are almost completely healthy at this point in the season.
Defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton is fine after an injury scare against the Broncos, and Ventrell Miller has stepped up admirably following the departure of Devin Lloyd.
This is Jacksonville's last true home game until Week 8 due to its annual London trip — it boasts an elite 8-1 against the spread (ATS) record at home since the start of last year.
Schematically, head coach Liam Coen has a huge advantage on paper entering this matchup against New England. Jacksonville is one of the heaviest Cover-6 teams in the league, deploying a quasi-Fangio defensive system that Drake Maye currently has no answers for.
Trevor Lawrence has also dominated New England in the past, completing over 60% of his passes in all six career starts against them, while only taking two sacks in the last four meetings.
Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the Jaguars to cover here. They are significantly better and healthier, and they have the fortune of playing in the Florida humidity against a battered Patriots roster that is waiting for last year's version of Drake Maye to show up.
Liam Coen can spread out this Patriots defense or go run-heavy to keep star cornerback Christian Gonzalez away from the primary action.
I'll lay the short number under a field goal with the Jaguars.
Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
