We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 3.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Chargers vs. Bills and Patriots vs. Jaguars among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for Cardinals vs. 49ers and Ravens vs. Cowboys in Brazil later in the day. We also have bets for Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Bengals vs. Steelers, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season on September 27.
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NFL Player Props Week 3
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Jets vs. Lions
Geno Smith Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)
By Nick Galaida
The Lions were already playing without both of their starting safeties to begin the season, then Avonte Maddox suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2.
Detroit has been playing an extremely aggressive style of defense this season, which has led to a number of explosive pass plays for its opponents.
Jets QB Geno Smith has faced the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL through two games and has a long-established history of playing well in domes.
He should have plenty of opportunities through the air in this plus matchup.
Pick: Geno Smith Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Chargers vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There are a couple of unknowns in this game, but at the moment, I don't think that DJ Moore or Keon Coleman will play this weekend (both questionable), which sets up Dalton Kincaid for a huge role.
Kincaid has been fantastic this season, averaging over 100 yards per game and having a drastic increase in snap rate (72% and 66% through the first two weeks).
He's the go-to target for Josh Allen, and the Bills are finally starting to play their top receiver at a higher clip.
The Chargers have been good against the run this season, so I expect the Bills to continue to pass the ball at a high rate. I have this bet projected to hit at over a 60% clip.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bengals vs. Steelers
Aaron Rodgers Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
The Steelers have thrown the ball plenty in the first two games under head coach Mike McCarthy. They rank fourth in pass rate overall and seventh in neutral pass rate.
The Steelers have also played at the seventh-fastest pace after ranking in the middle of the pack last season.
Aaron Rodgers is averaging 39.5 attempts this season after topping 39 attempts in just one game last season.
Cincinnati has fortified its run defense, and the Steelers have struggled to generate yards on the ground.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
Patriots vs. Jaguars
Parker Washington Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
By Brit Devine
We have hit on Parker Washington's overs in both games so far, and the line for Week 3 is still too low.
With elite Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez likely spending most of his time lined up on the outside, we once again get to take advantage of Washington playing in the slot as the main target in a Liam Coen offense.
Washington leads the Jaguars in targets (18), receiving yards (181), air-yards share (51.5%; 5th in the league), and basically any stat that matters for a WR to produce.
Coen is one of a handful of coaches that I trust to game-plan appropriately and get his best player the football, and while this line is climbing higher and the Patriots do have a good defense, the workload for Washington in this game should be elite.
Pick: Parker Washington Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Kenneth Walker Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Chris Prince
This is a big number for Kenneth Walker, but with the way he has started the season, anything under 100 yards makes this a prop I will be aggressively targeting.
Walker draws a great spot, with Kansas City as big 10.5-point favorites against a hapless Dolphins defense.
Walker has seen an elite workload on the ground through the first two games, averaging 23.5 carries. He has gone over 110 rushing yards in both games and is averaging 145 rushing yards per game.
He is one of the bigger home-run threats at the running back position as well, capable of breaking off very long runs at any point.
Miami has allowed 103.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, and I believe Walker will make that number look even worse after he smashes this prop again.
Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Titans vs. Giants
Darnell Mooney Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
By Chris Prince
We hit on this prop last week, and the number remains about the same today.
While the Giants lost starting quarterback Jaxson Dart, they have one of the more capable backups in Jameis Winston.
Darnell Mooney isn't seeing a ton of targets, but the key here is he's getting targeted down the field. Not only has he topped this number in both of his games thus far, but he has topped this line on one long reception alone in each game.
Winston is definitely not afraid to attack down the field, and Mooney should be a big beneficiary of that.
The matchup is solid — the Titans have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers through the first two weeks of the season.
Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Trey McBride Anytime TD (+195)
By Grant Neiffer
I don't know why the books keep giving us these odds on Trey McBride, but I'm going to keep hitting it.
Since Jacoby Brissett has been the starting quarterback for Arizona, McBride has scored a whopping 12 TDs in 14 games.
The Cardinals are large 8.5-point underdogs, which means they are likely going to be forced into a heavy passing game script.
I have the true odds here around +150.
Pick: Trey McBride Anytime TD (+195)
Ravens��vs. Cowboys
Javonte Williams Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Williams' rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 12.46 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 15.67.
The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 14.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +102. This play is good down to at least -153.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
